In the third installment of my NFC North 2025 Forecast series, I’ll focus on the Green Bay Packers. My previous installments on the Bears and Lions can be found by following the links.
Coaching Changes
The Packers have continuity at the head coach and coordinator positions- Matt LaFleur returns his seventh season as head coach and offensive playcaller of the Packers, while Adam Stenovich returns as offensive coordinator and Jeff Hafley as defensive coordinator.
Key Roster Changes
The Packers released their best, but oft injured, cornerback Jaire Alexander, replacing him with Nate Hobbs. Cornerback Eric Stokes was also not extended. The bottom line is the Packers reshuffled their defensive secondary with Hobbs and Keisan Nixon as outside cornerbacks, 2024 second-round pick Javon Bullard (kind of a Josh Metellus type) at slot cornerback, 2024 4th-round pick Evan Williams at one safety spot and All-Pro Xavier McKinney at the other. The Packers have been a heavy zone coverage (mostly Cover-3) team under Jeff Hafley last season, and judging by the cornerbacks they have this season, that is likely to continue. I don’t view Hobbs as an upgrade, although Alexander was injured so much last season that he wasn’t much of a factor.
Offensively, the Packers drafted wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round, something they hadn’t done since 2002. Golden has looked good in training camp and figures to be their future WR1, but at the moment their top three receivers are Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontavion Wicks.
On the offensive line, the Packers did not extend center and former second-round pick Josh Myers, but acquired former 49ers left guard Aaron Banks on a four-year, $77 million deal. Banks was a better run blocker last season, but has never graded particularly well in pass protection according to PFF. His best season grade as a pass blocker was 61.0 (average). His 97.1 pass block efficiency grade ranked 32nd among starting guards last season. The Packers appear to be going with Sean Rhyan again at right guard (97.0 pass block efficiency) and are moving former guard/tackle Elgton Jenkins to center. Jenkins was the highest graded pass blocking guard last season. Zach Tom will start again at right tackle and was one of the best tackles in the league last season, while Rasheed Walker appears to be the starter at left tackle at the moment, although 2024 second-round pick Jordan Morgan appears to be pushing him for the starting job. Walker was one of the better pass blocking tackles last season, but struggled more in run blocking. Overall I’m not sure the reshuffle of the offensive line will move the needle much overall, but the Packers do appear to be beefing up the size of their offensive line and looking to improve their run blocking.
Micah Parsons
All these roster changes came in advance of the recently concluded Micah Parsons trade, which give the Packers a premier All-Pro edge rusher with versatility as an off-ball linebacker. They traded starting defensive tackle Kenny Clark as part of the deal. The Packers pass rush was a weak point in their defense a season ago, as both Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary have been largely disappointing. So adding Parsons should provide an immediate jump start to their pass rush, especially as defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley doesn’t like to blitz much- the Packers had the second-lowest blitz rate in the league last season. Losing Kenny Clark probably doesn’t move the needle too much for the Packers, who apparently will replace him with Corey Wooden, who added 15 pounds to his 273 pound listed weight this offseason. The Packers also have defensive tackles Devonte Wyatt and Karl Brooks that will likely be a big part of the defensive tackle rotation. But the Packers interior run defense looks suspect as none of their starting defensive lineman grade particular well there outside of Rashan Gary. Still, the Packers ranked 3rd in yards per rush allowed so it will be interesting to see if that changes much this season.
2024 Season Stats
The Packers went 11-6 last season, but just 1-5 against NFC North opponents. They ranked 8th in points scored and 5th in yards gained offensively, while defensively they ranked 6th in points allowed and 5th in yards allowed. The Packers were one of only three teams to run the ball more often than pass it offensively. The Packers offense ranked 15th in third down conversion rate and 10th in red zone touchdown rate. Defensively, the Packers ranked 12th in third down conversion rate allowed and 20th in red zone touchdown rate allowed. The Packers also ranked 11th in giveaways offensively and 4th in takeaways defensively.
In term of team PFF grades, the Packers ranked 16th in overall team PFF grade, including 10th in overall offense grade, 13th in overall defense grade, and dead last on special teams. Breaking it down further, the Packers ranked 18th in passing offense grade, but third in pass blocking grade, 16th in receivers grade, 4th in rushing grade, but 22nd in run blocking grade. Defensively, the Packers ranked 24th in team run defense grade, but 4th in tackling grade, 17th in pass rush grade, and third in coverage grade.
In DVOA terms, the Packers ranked third in total DVOA, including 4th in offensive DVOA, 7th in defensive DVOA, and 15th in special teams DVOA.
Injuries
Using the Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric, the Packers had the 7th fewest AGLs last season, including the 6th fewest on offense and the 7th fewest on defense.
Luck Factors
The Packers had the worst luck in the league last season according to the Net Win Probability Added chart below. According to the TeamRankings luck metric, the Packers ranked 18th or near average.
Strength of Schedule
The Packers have the 10th most difficult schedule this season, looking at over/under win totals for their slate of opponents. But as I’ve said with all NFC North teams, this schedule may be even tougher than it looks compared to last year. The first half of the Packers’ schedule this season is the easier one, in that they have the Browns, Panthers, and Giants mixed in. But the second part starting week 12 is non-stop division or playoff team opponents: Vikings, @ Detroit, Bears, @ Denver, @ Chicago, Ravens, @ Vikings. The Packers went 1-5 in the division last year and the only playoff team they beat was the Rams without their 3 starting wide receivers.
Prediction for the Packers this Season
The over/under win total for the Packers currently stands at 10, with a +165 odds to win the division.
Adding up all the factors above as plus or minus to the Packers’ last season win total of 11, works out like this:
- Coaching changes: 0. The Packers maintain the same head coach and coordinators as last season.
- Roster changes: +2. This is almost all due to the addition of Micah Parsons. The rest of the Packers roster changes don’t really move the needle.
- Injuries: -1. The Packers had the 7th fewest injuries last season. A reversion to the mean would not be surprising and have a negative impact as injuries almost always do.
- Luck factors and turnovers: +0. The Packers had significantly bad luck last season (middle of bottom half) using a blend of the Net Win Probability Added chart and the TeamRankings luck rankings. They also ranked 4th in takeaways and 11th in giveaways. A small plus might be due here, but the Packers’ track record with takeaways suggests a reversion to the mean is most likely so I’m more inclined toward this being a net neutral overall.
- Strength of Schedule: -2. Outside of division opponents last season, the Packers the only good and healthy team the Packers faced last season was the Eagles. The Rams were missing their top 3 receivers- the heart of their offense, the Texans were without Nico Collins, and the Seahawks played Sam Howell the second half as Geno Smith was injured. This year that number could be six.
Overall, that adds up to a 10-7 record for the Packers this season- the same record I have for the Lions. Their matchup on Sunday could have a significant impact on which team comes out ahead in the division race.
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