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Fantasy Football: 5 wide receiver sleepers

Nathan Jahnke breaks down five wide receiver sleepers who fantasy football managers should target in their drafts in the lead up to the 2025 season.


Fantasy Football: 5 wide receiver sleepers

Fantasy Football: 5 wide receiver sleepers

By

Nathan Jahnke

  • Darnell Mooney reached new highs with theAtlanta Falcons: After a strong start and rough finish with the Chicago Bears, Mooney revitalized his career as the Falcons’ second receiving option last season.
  • Marvin Mims Jr. had a late-season surge: He demonstrated his potential late in the 2024 season, finishing as the 23rd-ranked wide receiver in PPR points per game over a crucial seven-game stretch and showcasing his ability to be a valuable fantasy asset when given the opportunity.

Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes


Once a fantasy football draft reaches the 11th round, most rosters are filled out with starting wide receivers and, in some cases, one or more backups. While there are plenty of minimal-upside pass catchers available at that point in drafts, there are also hidden gems with top-20 potential, such as Brian Thomas Jr. in 2024 or Nico Collins in 2023.

We’re identifying five wide receivers who are being drafted from the 11th to 14th rounds and could end up becoming weekly must-start options.

The average draft position listed is a consensus among ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo! for where the player is selected on average in a 12-team, redraft league.

Last updated: Monday, Sept. 1

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 11.05)

Josh Downs won the Indianapolis Colts‘ slot receiving job in the 2023 preseason after getting drafted in the third round of the 2023 draft. Downs played at least 70% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps over the first eight weeks. A high target rate led him to rank 30th among fantasy wide receivers over the first eight weeks. He had the 17th-most receptions for the 27th-most yards.

Downs suffered a knee injury, which left him questionable for two weeks. He played through the injury to minimal fantasy value. He played just a handful of snaps in the two games immediately after the injury, and then his playing time only bounced back to 60-65% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps. After gaining 55 receiving yards or more in four of his first eight games, he was held under 55 receiving yards and no touchdowns in his final nine games.

He missed the start of the 2024 season due to an ankle injury. He returned to a quiet game in Week 3. His playing time never returned to the consistency of the start of the 2023 season, but his target rate increased significantly. From Weeks 4 to 11, he averaged 15.8 PPR points per game, which ranked 13th among wide receivers. Downs was dealing with a toe injury during most of this stretch.

Downs started dealing with a calf injury before Week 12 and a shoulder injury after Week 12, causing him to miss Week 13. Downs was less consistent over the last four weeks, which was in part due to the shoulder injury. He finished the season with a career-high 10 receptions for 94 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Downs’ role over the last two seasons has been very consistent. He’s been the Colts’ slot receiver in three-receiver sets but has been off the field in two-receiver sets. Downs has played 89.9% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps when the Colts have three wide receivers on the field or more and 5.8% when the Colts have two wide receivers or fewer, only including the games where Downs played at least 30% of the team’s offensive snaps.

Typically, it is very difficult for a wide receiver to be fantasy-relevant in this role. However, Downs has been an exception thanks to his high targets per route rate and the Colts’ high rate of using 11 personnel. The Colts have the third-highest rate of using 11 personnel over the last two seasons at 74.1% of their plays.

Downs will continue playing under Shane Steichen, as he’s done throughout his career. The Colts have used three-receiver sets at a high rate along with throwing to receivers a lot, which has worked well for Indianapolis. The Colts focused more of their offense onJonathan Taylor last season, which led to more two-tight-end sets and a much higher run rate. That was working against Downs. Ideally, the team can trust their quarterbacks more this season, which would be a big boost for Downs and help make it possible for Downs and Warren to co-exist.

Downs will now catch passes from Daniel Jones, a quarterback with a clear track record of targeting slot receivers. Wan’Dale Robinson ranks among the top five in slot targets over the past two seasons—proof that Jones has no hesitation throwing inside. His lower deep target rate compared to Anthony Richardson also means more short and intermediate opportunities for receivers like Downs or Alec Pierce. Add in Jones’ higher accuracy rate, and it’s a setup that could significantly boost Downs’ efficiency and volume.

Downs has the upside to be a top-24 fantasy wide receiver. However, he’s dealt with multiple injuries that have cost him time and quality of play once he returns from injury. He also hasTyler Warren to deal with. Either an injury or Warren stepping up could be the difference between Downs being a fantasy starter and Downs being unplayable in fantasy leagues.


Darnell Mooney,Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 12.04)

The Chicago Bears drafted Mooney in 2020, and he put together one of the most successful seasons by a fifth-round rookie receiver. His 61 receptions tied with Tyreek Hill for the second most among fifth-round rookies in the past decade, and he ranked just behind Puka Nacua and just ahead of Stefon Diggs. Mooney surpassed Allen Robinson as the Bears’ top wide receiver in 2021, gaining 1,000 yards for the first and only time in his career.

Unfortunately, his yards-per-game average dropped by 21 between 2021 and 2022, and D.J. Moore‘s arrival in 2023 caused Mooney’s target rate to plummet. Part of the problem was that Mooney played primarily as an outside receiver in 2020 and 2021 but then logged more snaps from the slot than out wide in 2022 and 2023. Mooney has averaged 1.92 yards per route run over the past season when lined up out wide, compared to 1.12 in the slot.

The Atlanta Falcons signed Mooney during the 2024 offseason to a three-year, $39 million contract ($26 million guaranteed), and he served as the X receiver in their offense. His target rate shot back up despite him being the No. 2 option behind Drake London. His yards-per-game average matched his best season with Chicago, and while his receptions-per-game mark slightly declined, he set a career high in receiving touchdowns (five).

Mooney was a classic up-and-down third wide receiver option in fantasy leagues last season. He recorded 80 or more receiving yards in seven games, with his five touchdowns all coming in those outings. However, he was held to three receptions for fewer than 40 yards in six games. Some receivers tend to put up bigger numbers in losses than wins because their team needs to pass more often, but Mooney’s good games generally occurred in the Falcons’ high-scoring, close affairs, while his bad games were generally in low-scoring, close losses.

Mooney will be in Zac Robinson’s offense for a second straight season. His offense bears a strong resemblance to the one the Los Angeles Rams run, utilizing three-receiver sets at a high rate while also frequently targeting wide receivers. Mooney should see a high volume of targets.

By far, the biggest change for the Falcons’ offense is at quarterback, whereMichael Penix Jr., who started the last three games of 2024, will take over full-time. Mooney gained 82 yards on five receptions in his first game with Penix last season, injured his shoulder in the second game and missed the third game. While Penix zeroed in on Drake London for most of those three weeks, he should be a positive for Mooney, on paper.

Penix threw deep and was accurate on such throws at much higher rates than the league average. Mooney caught 14 passes on deep attempts last season, the third most in the NFL. He could lead the league in deep targets if he gains more chemistry with Penix.

Mooney tallied the 38th-most fantasy points per game in 2024. Most teams can have two fantasy-relevant skill players if they have anywhere close to an average offense, and the Falcons have Bijan Robinson and London. It’s often the quality of the offense that determines if a third target is fantasy-viable. If Penix plays well, Mooney would likely be that third person. If Penix plays worse than Kirk Cousins last year, then the Falcons probably won’t have a third fantasy-relevant option.

Mooney has been dealing with a shoulder injury, which has kept him out of training camp. His quarterback is optimistic he will be back for Week 1, but there is a chance he will miss the start of the season. The injury has been driving down his price, which has kept him a value compared to his ADP.

Mooney was a borderline WR3 last season and could be a weekly fantasy starter if Penix continues to develop into a solid NFL quarterback. If not, Mooney will just be a fantasy backup who can fill in due to injuries or bye weeks.


Marvin Mims Jr.,Denver Broncos (ADP: 13.12)

Mims joined the Denver Broncos as the 63rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He started last season as a non-factor, playing even less than in the previous season, and caught 11 passes for 69 yards over the first 10 weeks. In Week 11, Mims started seeing a much higher target rate. He gained at least 40 receiving yards in five of his last seven games and caught six touchdowns in that time. He had two games near the end of the season with a 46% snap rate, in addition to a 69% snap rate in the Broncos’ playoff game.

Mims ranked 23rd in PPR points per game during the seven-game stretch (15.5). He was the clear second option in the offense despite having run the fourth-most routes in the wide receiver room. He posted an elite 89.7 PFF receiving grade and saw a target on 30.4% of his routes, leading to 4.25 yards per route run. After being a deep threat earlier in his career, Mims averaged only 4.2 depth yards per target.

He scored a touchdown on 3.1% of his routes last season, the best rate among wide receivers, while his 0.64 receiving fantasy points per route ranked second.

The Broncos leaned heavily on a wide receiver rotation last season, with Courtland Sutton and Lil’Jordan Humphrey handling early-down duties, while Sutton, Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele featured in three-receiver sets. Marvin Mims Jr. gradually carved out a larger role as the season progressed. With Vele and Humphrey no longer on the roster, Denver added third-rounder Pat Bryant and veteran Trent Sherfield Sr. to the mix.

Mims’ usage in the preseason offers real optimism for a breakout. In 12 personnel, the Broncos regularly used Sutton and Mims—only once did Franklin take Mims’ spot. In 11 personnel, both played 11 of 13 possible snaps. Mims also played every snap with the starters in the final preseason game.

His alignment was initially a concern—he lined up almost exclusively out wide in the first game, despite producing 2.57 career yards per route run from the slot compared to 1.57 out wide. But after the Vele trade, Mims split time with Franklin in the slot, alleviating those concerns. Meanwhile, Bryant’s usage—only filling in for Sutton and consistently playing X with the backups—suggests his playing time may be limited early on. All signs point to Mims earning a significantly expanded role in 2025.

Marvin Mims Jr. enters his third season under Sean Payton, a coach known for molding productive wide receivers. While Payton’s most successful pass catchers have been bigger-bodied players like Marques Colston and Michael Thomas, he’s also had success with undersized speedsters—most notably Brandin Cooks. Cooks, who shares a similar size-speed profile with Mims, posted comparable average depths of target early in his career before developing into a more complete receiver. He went on to finish as WR13 in 2015 and WR10 in 2016 under Payton. The Broncos’ head coach has repeatedly praised Mims’ explosiveness and confidence, calling him “elite with the ball in his hands.”

Unlike Cooks, who benefited from playing with Drew Brees, Mims will catch passes from Bo Nix. The rookie quarterback held his own last season, posting a strong accuracy rate while consistently targeting wide receivers and limiting reliance on first reads—traits that could benefit a lower-aDOT receiver like Mims. If Nix takes a step forward in Year 2, Mims’ ceiling could climb even higher.

As a late-round fantasy dart throw, Mims carries more upside than most. If his preseason usage holds and he sees a high snap share out of the gate, he could quickly emerge as a weekly fantasy starter. If not, he’s an easy early-season drop. Either way, he’s well worth the gamble.


Christian Kirk signed a four-year, $72 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022.Marvin Jones and Zay Jones joined him as the Jaguars’ outside wide receivers in addition toEvan Engram at tight end. Kirk had his best season of his career in his first year with Jacksonville, setting career-highs in receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108), touchdowns (eight) and receiving grade (76.1). He accomplished this with a higher target rate than any season in Arizona, and the second-lowest average depth of target in his career.

In his second year in Jacksonville, Kirk’s target rate increased, as did his yards per route and yards per game. However, the Jaguars addedCalvin Ridley, and he became the new favorite target in the red zone. Kirk was targeted on eight of 35 routes when the Jaguars were within 10 yards of scoring in 2022, leading to six touchdowns. In 2023, he was only targeted on two of 15 routes. This was the main reason for his decline in fantasy points per game in 2023. Kirk suffered a groin injury, costing him the last five games of the season.

In 2024, the Jaguars addedBrian Thomas Jr. andGabe Davis, which led to a decrease in snaps for Kirk. His average depth of target increased, leading to a significantly lower catch rate. This lowered his yards per route and yards per game. With the offense focused on Thomas, the Jaguars seemed destined to trade Kirk at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Kirk suffered a season-ending collarbone injury, which made a trade impossible.

Kirk has been the most consistent slot receiver in recent seasons, finishing with 5.2 targets per game in the slot, which is the most among wide receivers over the past three seasons. Typically, slot receivers are better against zone defense than man, but Kirk has been dominant against man defenses. His 2.66 yards per route run against man are the seventh-most among wide receivers. Kirk has also played well against press and when lined up out wide.

Kirk was traded to the Houston Texans for a seventh-round pick. The Jaguars would have released Kirk had they not been able to manage a trade, given the cap savings. The Texans took on a $4.8 million cap number this year and $11.4 million in dead money next season. A big reason why it only took a seventh-round pick to acquire Kirk was the cap hit the Texans have taken.

The Texans didn’t re-signStefon Diggs, andTank Dell is expected to miss the season. The Texans made several moves at wide receiver, retainingNico Collins,John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchinson, signing free agents Justin Watson and Braxton Berrios, and draftingJayden Higgins andJaylin Noel. While Collins is locked into the top wide receiver spot, there will be competition at the top of the depth chart.

This includes Kirk competing with Higgins for outside snaps in two wide receiver sets and competing with Noel for the slot role. There is also at least a possibility Kirk becomes an outside receiver with Noel in the slot, if that can get the Texans’ top three wide receivers on the field. Kirk should be considered a favorite to win an every-down role, particularly to start the season, but the situation will be fluid throughout the season, depending on how well everyone is playing.

The Texans made a change at offensive coordinator, bringing in Nick Caley, who has never had control of an NFL offense, so we don’t know exactly how the offense will look. Caley has been around offenses that put a heavy emphasis on the slot receiver. From 2023-2024, the Los Angeles Rams have the second-most targets (295) and receiving yards (2,437) to wide receivers lined up in the slot. During his eight years with the New England Patriots, they were sixth in both yards (8,406) and touchdowns (55) to wide receivers in the slot.

Kirk’s previous grades and fantasy history don’t generally point to a fantasy starting wide receiver, but the big reason for optimism for Kirk is the possibility that he receives a high target rate in this role with Houston. TeammateNico Collins has called Kirk the “slot magician man.” Kirk has impressed head coach DeMeco Ryans, praising his playmaking while mentioning Kirk’s ability to help bring the Texans down the field and his veteran leadership. While Kirk might not play as well asCooper Kupp or Julian Edelman, there is a clear path to being a fantasy starter if Kirk earns a high target rate in the slot.

Kirk will be catching passes fromC.J. Stroud. The third-year quarterback has graded relatively well. He has a low rate of throwing to his first read, which is generally good news for slot receivers. His slot receiver last season,Stefon Diggs, ranked 18th in fantasy points per game at 15.2 points. This combination of coach, quarterback and path to playing time isn’t perfect, but it was probably as good as Kirk could get.

While Kirk wasn’t a fantasy starter last season, and the Texans have multiple exciting rookies, Kirk has a chance to be a fantasy starter this year. He should be the Texans’ top slot receiver while playing with a quarterback who threw a lot to the slot last year and an offensive coordinator who’s been a part of offenses that primarily feature the slot receiver in the passing game. While Kirk’s unlikely to be a top-15 option, there is a clear path to him being a reliable fantasy starter.


DeMario Douglas was a sixth-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2023. He was expected to be the backup slot receiver to free agent addition JuJu Smith-Schuster. In Week 1, Smith-Schuster played more offensive snaps because he played in two-receiver sets. Douglas took more snaps than Smith-Schuster in three-receiver sets. He played fewer snaps in Week 2, playing less than one-third of New England’s offensive snaps in the following four games, and he missed Week 6 due to a concussion.

His role notably increased on his return with Smith-Schuster missing a game. He caught four passes for 54 yards while playing 100% of the 11 personnel snaps. He played better in that game than in any game Smith-Schuster had played to that point, so Douglas kept his role and played at least 70% of New England’s offensive snaps in every game he was healthy the rest of the season. Along with taking nearly all of the 11 personnel snaps, he started taking a majority of snaps in two-receiver sets. He peaked in Week 10 in terms of his stats with six receptions for 84 yards. He missed two games due to injury. The last two weeks of the season, he played 94% and 97% of the snaps, respectively, but that didn’t lead to much receiving production.

The Patriots moved on from Smith-Schuster in the preseason, but the Patriots’ new coaching staff had a different plan for Douglas. He played 90% of the snaps in 11 personnel, which was similar to a lot of last season but only 19% of the snaps in two-receiver sets, which was a significant downgrade from the end of last season. He ultimately ran more routes per game, but it was fewer routes per game compared to the end of last season. His target rate declined, which ultimately led to a decrease in yards per game. Douglas scored three touchdowns, which was more than his zero from his rookie season. He caught six passes for 92 yards and a touchdown in his best game but was held to 20 yards or less in seven games.

His 0.235 avoided tackles per reception has ranked sixth-most among wide receivers over the last two seasons. He also has one of the highest single coverage open rates. He’s also had very high single coverage open rates the last two seasons. This suggests he could be a very good wide receiver given more opportunities.

The Patriots made multiple changes to their wide receiver room. New England kept its three other top wide receivers from last season, as well as 2024 fourth-round pick Javon Baker. They added Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins in free agency and Kyle Williams in the draft.

The good news is that none of them should be significant competition for Douglas in the slot. None of the returning wide receivers played significantly in the slot last season. Williams and Hollins have primarily played on the outside. Stefon Diggs was primarily a slot receiver last season for the Houston Texans, but he primarily played on the outside with the Buffalo Bills. Diggs had a higher yards per route run on the outside while Douglas earned more in the slot, so it makes sense for both players to play where they’ve performed better.

The Patriots have added Josh McDaniels as their new offensive coordinator, which is a big reason to be optimistic about Douglas’ production. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman had three 1,000-yard seasons each in McDaniels’ offense. They were both roughly the same size as Douglas and also primarily played in the slot. Douglas is notably faster, as he performed better in the vertical and broad jumps, but both Welker and Edelman were elite in the 20-yard shuttle, while Douglas was only above average. Welker and Edelman were both top-15 fantasy wide receivers in each of their 1,000-yard seasons. In four of those six seasons, they only graded in the 70.0s but simply had a lot of volume.

While McDaniels’ offense may feed Douglas similarly to how they fed Welker and Edelman, and Douglas doesn’t necessarily need to improve his quality of play, he will be catching passes from Drake Maye instead of Tom Brady. Maye’s 67.8% short pass accuracy has been strong and better than Brady’s at the end of his career but not as good as Brady’s peak. It was better than Brady’s 65% in 2019 in Edelman’s final 1,000-yard season but not as good as Brady’s 73.1% in Edelman’s middle 1,000-yard season in 2016. Maye also had a very high rate of either getting sacked or scrambling, which wasn’t true with Brady.

However, even if Maye isn’t quite as good as Brady, which therefore doesn’t put Douglas in the top-15 range, there is still plenty of room for significant improvement in Douglas’ stats, making him a top-30 wide receiver, which would make him a big value at his current ADP.

Douglas has very rarely finished as a top-24 wide receiver in any week, but there are metrics to support that he’s a better receiver than his raw stats show, and new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has a history of featuring receivers like Douglas. He is one of the best late-round wide receiver options, if not the best.

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