In my second installment of 2025 forecasts for the NFC North, I’ll focus on the reigning division champion Detroit Lions. In case you missed it, my first installment was on the Bears, and I also did a piece on the NFC North at the end of June, some of which is a bit outdated with subsequent events.
Coaching Changes
It’s been an eventful offseason for the Lions. After a 15-2 division-winning record, both coordinators for the Lions took head coaching jobs- offensive coordinator Ben Johnson with the Bears, and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn with the Jets. Dan Campbell remains the head coach but does not call plays.
The Lions’ new offensive coordinator is John Morton, 55, who’s been an offensive assistant or wide receiver position coach in the league for most of the past 20 years, with a two-year stint as offensive coordinator at USC and with the Jets in 2017. Most recently he’s been the passing game coordinator for the Broncos under Sean Payton the past two seasons before being named offensive coordinator by Dan Campbell this offseason. Morton was a Senior Offensive Assistant for the Lions in 2022, so there is familiarity there, and the Sean Payton connection is a common one for Morton and Campbell. The desire is for continuity with Ben Johnson’s scheme of the past few years, but how well Morton can fill Johnson’s shoes as a playcaller and coordinator remains to be seen. Morton has only one year of experience as a coordinator in the league and that didn’t go well- the Jets’ offense finished near the bottom of the league that year, but it was the Jets so not entirely unexpected. Still, Morton has everything to prove at this point in what is likely the back-nine of his coaching career.
Defensively, the Lions hired from within, promoting former NFL linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, 37, from linebackers coach to defensive coordinator. Sheppard is well regarded within the Lions organization and Aaron Glenn appeared to be grooming him to be a defensive coordinator in the future. Once again the desire is continuity in scheme, but as a rookie defensive coordinator, Sheppard is an unknown quantity and will have a learning curve as he grows into his new role.
Key Roster Changes
Of all the NFC North teams this offseason, the Lions did the least to improve their roster. In fact, they’ve likely regressed a bit along their offensive line. The Lions lost All-Pro center Frank Ragnow to retirement and All-Pro right guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency. To replace them, former starting left guard Graham Glasgow is moving to center, and is being replaced at left guard by 2024 sixth-round pick Christian Mahagony, who graded very well in two games last season as a starter. At right guard, the Lions are going with 2025 second-round draft pick Tate Rateledge. Going from two seasoned All-Pros to essentially two rookies is likely to have an impact, as its exceedingly rare for a non-first round draft pick rookie offensive lineman to perform as well as Ragnow and Zeitler did last season.
The Lions also replaced cornerback Carlton Davis with D.J. Reed in free agency. Reed, who turns 29 in November, has been a good man coverage corner in the past but is smaller than Davis at 5’9”, 190 lbs.. Overall, more of a lateral move. That’s about it for key roster changes for the Lions, however.
2024 Season Stats
The Lions were 15-2 last season, including a 6-0 record within the division. They scored the most points in the league offensively and gained the second-most yards. Defensively they allowed the 7th-fewest points but ranked 20th in yards allowed. They had the 6th fewest turnovers offensively and 10th-most defensively. They had the 4th-highest 3rd down conversion rate offensively and ranked 3rd in converting touchdowns in the red zone. Defensively they allowed the lowest rate of 3rd down conversions and had the 7th lowest rate of touchdowns allowed in the red zone.
In terms of PFF team grades, the Lions ranked second in overall team grade, including second in overall offensive grade, 5th in overall defensive grade, and 7th in special teams grade. Breaking that down further, the Lions ranked 13th in pass offense, 15th in pass blocking grade, first in receivers grade, 5th in rushing grade, and second in run blocking grade. Defensively, the Lions ranked 10th in run defense grade, 3rd in tackling grade, 11th in pass rush grade, and 6th in coverage grade.
In DVOA terms, the Lions ranked second in total DVOA, 3rd in offensive DVOA, 5th in defensive DVOA, and first in special teams DVOA. Pretty solid all the way around.
Injuries
Using the Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric, the Lions ranked 25th (8th worst) in AGLs last season. However, those AGLs were heavily skewed toward the Lions’ defense, which ranked dead last in AGLs, while the Lions’ offense ranked 2nd best. The Lions will be without top defensive tackle Alim McNeil to start the season this year, as he is still recovering from an ACL he suffered late last season. Defensive tackle Josh Pascal is also on the NFI list, meaning he’ll miss at least the first four games of this season. Additionally, the Lions have a number of backups that have suffered injuries to various degrees already.
Luck Factors
As I mentioned in my first NFC North installment this year, I’m going to blend two measures of luck factors this year to hopefully provide a better overall measure of luck factors that can impact the outcome of a game. In the past, I’ve just used the Net Win Probabiliy Added measure, shown in the chart below for 2024, but this year I’m also going to blend it with the TeamRankings Luck Rankings, which are based on estimated wins, which is based on play-by-play expected outcomes vs. actual results, compared to actual wins. This encompasses some of the same factors as Net Win Probability but also considers less impactful plays.
The Lions ranked 14th in the Net Win Probability added due to luck factors last season, and sixth according to the TeamRankings measure of luck.
Strength of Schedule
The Lions have one of the toughest schedules in the league this season. And as I mentioned with the Bears, the NFC North schedules may be even tougher than they look compared to last season. The Lions may have just two games against potential top ten draft pick teams in 2026. Additionally, they face their toughest non-division opponents on the road: the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Commanders, Eagles, and Rams.
Prediction for the Lions this Season
The Lions have a 10 over/under win total at the moment and are +190 to win the division.
Adding up the changes and other factors above, this is how I see the Lions this season:
- Coaching changes: -3. The Lions lost both playcallers this offseason to head coaching jobs and replaced them with two guys with little or no track record as coordinators. They still have a strong roster on both sides of the ball, but losing two top coordinators and replacing them with guys that haven’t proven anything at this point carries a lot of downside risk while the chance of them being as good as their predecessors is low.
- Roster changes: -1. The losses to the Lions offensive line are significant. Losing two All-Pros and replacing them with rookies is bound to have a negative effect on offensive performance, which was the strength of the Lions last season.
- Injuries: +1. The Lions were hit the hardest defensively last season. I’d have put this at +2 except the Lions already have some injury issues to start this season.
- Luck factors and turnovers: 0. The Lions overall were positively impacted by luck factors and top ten in both fewest giveaways and most takeaways. But on both counts not dramatically so and I’m inclined to give the Lions the benefit of the doubt here and not give them a slight negative here.
- Strength of Schedule: -2.0. The Lions have a tougher schedule this season than last and their first-place schedule gives them the Chiefs in the AFC West and the Buccaneers in the NFC South. The Chiefs on the road may be one of their toughest opponents and the Lions lost to the Bucs last season.
Overall, that adds up to a 10-7 record for the Lions- right at their over/under. I doubt that would be good enough to win the division this season, but it could come down to tiebreakers.
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