In late July I predicted the NFC playoff picture. In true NFL fashion, much has changed in a little over a month.
How much does Matthew Stafford’s back injury impact the outlook this season for the Los Angeles Rams? LA is attempting to thread a needle with a talented, young roster in what could be Stafford’s final year.
The Green Bay Packers also made a major shakeup this week with their blockbuster trade addition of Micah Parsons. This is an ascending team that, in theory, could be primed for a breakthrough. The fallout for the Cowboys makes it difficult to feel optimistic about Dallas, especially following a head scratching press conference from owner and general manager Jerry Jones.
This is how I thought the NFC playoff picture would look in July:
1 – Detroit Lions
2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 – Dallas Cowboys
4 – Los Angeles Rams
5 – Philadelphia Eagles
6 – Arizona Cardinals
7 – Atlanta Falcons
With the new information we have ahead of the regular season kickoff this upcoming week, here’s how I think the NFC will look at year’s end:
1 – Green Bay Packers
Simply put, this is one of the most well-rounded rosters in football. Green Bay lacked star-type players, but they are working on closing that gap with the addition of Parsons. The jury is still out—at least in my opinion—on Jordan Love. He’s capable of playing with the best; however, he can be frustratingly inconsistent and is one of the more inaccurate passers in the NFL.
The secondary looks shaky, especially at corner. The Packers seem to be borrowing from the Rams’ school of thought that an aggressive pass rush can help backend players by not asking them to cover as long.
2 – Philadelphia Eagles
No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back years for two decades. For this reason, I almost feel superstitious and am inclined to pick someone other than the Eagles. Still, the Cowboys seem to be a team in decline. The Washington Commanders are an old roster led by one the most promising young QB’s in all of football.
This is the defending Super Bowl champions’ division to win until it isn’t.
3 – Arizona Cardinals
I was bullish on Arizona making the playoffs and not necessarily on them winning the NFC West. However, I don’t feel too confident in the Rams or San Francisco 49ers this year.
Stafford’s back is going to be an issue for LA, whether it causes him to either miss games or simply not look like himself. There’s almost zero possibility that we never mention his back soreness over a long 17-game season.
The 49ers have their own injury problems. They rely on older stars such as Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey. Nearly every single one of their receivers were injured in training camp and Demarcus Robinson is suspended, leaving them to sign Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Give me the ascending team in the third-year of their roster build under Jonathan Gannon. This defense took a major step forward in talent level this offseason. Sure, I would have liked to see them do more on the offensive side of the ball. Year two improvement from Marvin Harrison, Jr. should help offset this to a degree.
4 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I think both the Bucs and Falcons make the playoffs, and I could see either winning the NFC South.
Tampa Bay has a wealth of offensive playmakers, though there is a new play caller pulling the strings in 2025. I worry about their pass rushing prowess but Todd Bowles will find ways to get the most of what they currently have.
5 – Detroit Lions
Defensive injuries are already cropping up for Detroit. Attrition will only be draw steeper into the regular season.
I don’t think the Vikings or Bears will be outright bad; however, they are probably in growth years and will then look to take a step forward in 2026.
6 – Los Angeles Rams
The Rams could reasonably get the sixth seed even if Garoppolo starts for most of this year. This receiving corps looks dangerous and I am excited to see how Sean McVay deploys them when the games start to count.
The main concern is Stafford, of course. He’s been frustratingly inconsistent during his time in LA. Nearly every year has a stretch of outright poor play, though in the playoffs he’s able to kick into another gear. I feel inclined to believe that this inconsistency will only grow more prominent in light of the back injury, and even if he’s on the field he will probably be diminished in some fashion. LA must protect their franchise QB at all costs.
7 – Atlanta Falcons
No change here. I think Michael Penix is in store for a breakout year. The defense is making wholesale scheme changes and they’ve worked to keep players that fit into their plan. RT Kaleb McGary is out for the season, and this is a major loss. Still, this offense is as talented as any and it could finally all come together.
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