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Fantasy Football: 3 second-year wide receiver breakouts

Nathan Jahnke details three second-year wide receiver who have a chance to break out and become fantasy football stars in 2025.


Fantasy Football: 3 second-year wide receiver breakouts

Fantasy Football: 3 second-year wide receiver breakouts

By

Nathan Jahnke

Estimated reading time: 13 minutes


The 2024 draft class was one of the most hyped up wide receiver classes in recent memory. Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers and Ladd McConkey broke out and are already wide receivers to consider in the first three rounds of drafts.

However, several other wide receivers still have the potential to be top-10 players at their position at some point in the next few seasons. These are the three wide receivers in their second season who I believe are most likely to improve significantly and become weekly fantasy starters.

The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.

Last updated: Thursday, August 28


Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 4.06)

Harrison was the fourth overall pick in the 2024 draft, which was the highest any wide receiver had been picked since Amari Cooper in the 2015 draft. He was an immediate starter for the Arizona Cardinals with a lot of expectations. He played at least 80% of Arizona’s offensive snaps in most losses, but that would drop as low as 70% depending on how much the Cardinals were winning by in their victories.

After a quiet debut, he showed some of his promise through the rest of September, totalling 14 receptions for 239 yards and four touchdowns in his following three games. He dealt with a minor injury but showed his promise again in Week 8, finishing with six receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. He followed that up with seven consecutive games under 60 receiving yards. Harrison finished 2024 on a high note, accumulating 11 receptions for 159 yards and a touchdown over his final two games.

This left him 30th in total fantasy points despite not missing a game. He only had two games as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver, and he ranked outside the top 48 in over 40% of his games. His PFF receiving grade was 29th among wide receivers with at least 200 routes run last season. His target share was generally fine, as his 114 targets were tied for the 19th-most among wide receivers, but only 69 of those targets were catchable, ranking 37th-most. His 45 uncatchable targets were the most in the league, and his 39.5% uncatchable rate was the highest among the 52 wide receivers with at least 75 targets.

Harrison will not only have the same competition for targets but also the same offensive coordinator, quarterback, running back room and most of the same offensive line. The Cardinals haven’t run a lot of plays per game but have run the ball more than most teams, which works a little bit against Harrison.

The bigger problem was his chemistry with Kyler Murray. Part of the issue is that Harrison has 23 targets when Murray was under pressure, finishing with a 17.4-yard average depth of target, and only 11 of those passes were catchable. A lot of the problem was Murray’s chemistry with Harrison, leading to awkward ball placement, or Harrison simply not being where Murray thought he would be. Murray’s accuracy hasn’t generally been a problem, so this seems fixable. Head coach Jonathan Gannon said he expects a huge leap, and Murray has talked about improving their chemistry and timing.

Looking at historic data from the last decade, players with a 60.5% catchable target rate one year typically regress to the mean and have a 68.8% catchable target the following year. While that’s still below league average for wide receivers, that would be enough to move him from WR30 to WR17. If you believe Murray and Harrison can improve their chemistry better than a typical duo, then Harrison may improve even further.

Harrison’s first season was full of big expectations, which he didn’t fully live up to. Luckily, his target rate was high, and his target competition remains limited. He should finish among the top-20 wide receivers in targets again, and he needs to improve his chemistry with Kyler Murray so his fantasy value can also be among the top-20 wide receivers.

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (ADP: 7.06)

Rome Odunze was an incredibly productive starter for Washington over his final two collegiate seasons, putting up some of the best cumulative and rate numbers among all college football wide receivers. His 1,639 receiving yards ranked first among Power Five wide receivers in 2023, helping him get selected as the ninth overall pick. PFF’s draft guide called him a super-sizedChris Olave, and he was the best contested-catch receiver in the class. Over 2022 and 2023, no wide receiver in college football tallied more deep targets or deep receiving yards. His 88.8 PFF receiving grade when lined up out wide was the highest among all Power Five receivers.

Odunze’s rookie season was underwhelming. While most recent top-10 picks turned into fantasy starters in their rookie season, there was no point during the season where you could comfortably put Odunze in your lineup and get rewarded for it. Odunze was instantly one of the top three wide receivers on the Bears’ depth chart, but bothD.J. Moore and Keenan Allen were targeted more often, scored more touchdowns and averaged more receiving yards per game.

Odunze showed some flashes, including a six-reception, 112-yard and one-touchdown performance in Week 3. He also gained 104 receiving yards on receptions in Week 9. He was mainly utilized in the Bears’ losses, as he was held to 40 receiving yards or less in all their wins.

Odunze was the Bears’ Z receiver in three receiver sets and 42.9% of their two-receiver sets. His two-receiver set snap rate was very high early in the season, particularly when Keenan Allen was injured. He rarely played there in the middle of the season, but over the last five weeks, he started to play two to four snaps in two-receiver sets per game.

The Bears moved on from Allen but addedLuther Burden III in the early second round of the NFL draft, and also upgraded at tight end withColston Loveland. This gives the Bears the most complicated receiving battle for fantasy football purposes. Three weeks of the preseason suggest that Odunze is clearly ahead of the rookie. Odunze was consistently on the field with the starters, including in two-receiver sets, while Burden only played one snap with the starters. Loveland was constantly rotated with Cole Kmet. This leaves Odunze and Moore as the only wide receivers constantly on the field. If Odunze breaks out as expected, he could be the top receiver in the offense.

The biggest reason for optimism for the entire Bears offense is the Ben Johnson addition. His Detroit Lions offenses were among the highest scoring in the league, with elite fantasy options at running back, wide receiver and tight end. They also had a second fantasy-relevant wide receiver and were the rare team where both of the top running backs could be started on a weekly basis. While the original plan might not have been to involve Odunze as much, Johnson is reportedly extremely impressed with Odunze. This may have changed the plans at wide receiver after Chicago invested in the position in the draft.

In the preseason, Moore remained the X receiver, while Odunze was at Z, and Olamide Zaccheaus was in the slot. This puts Odunze in the position Amon-Ra St. Brown played in the base offense and Jameson Williams played in three-receiver sets. While Chicago’s offense will be different from Detroit’s, this suggests a fantasy-relevant role for Odunze this season.

Odunze will be catching passes fromCaleb Williams for a second-straight season. Odunze had a relatively high average depth of target and deep target rate last season, but Williams wasn’t very accurate on deep passes. Williams’ development will be critical, as Williams playing well could mean two or three receivers end up as fantasy starters. If Williams remains the same, we might be stuck with one fantasy-relevant receiver, or targets could be so divided in a bad offense that none of the receivers can be trusted.

Odunze is a classic high-risk, high-reward option, as he could be the top wide receiver in a top offense, or he could be someone that is cut off fantasy rosters midseason, or anywhere in between. Given how well he played in college, his upside is larger than other similar options, so he is worth the risk more so than other similar risky players.

Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 9.01)

During the 2024 offseason, the San Francisco 49ers knew they weren’t going to be able to pay all of their top players. Both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were about to have massive cap hits in 2025, so to prepare for life without one of them, the team selected Ricky Pearsall with the 31st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. While there were rumors that one would get traded before the season, San Francisco re-signed Aiyuk to a longer-term deal and kept Samuel for one more year with the hope of another Super Bowl run.

Not much was expected of Pearsall in his rookie season. He missed the first six weeks of the campaign while recovering from being shot in a robbery attempt. And upon his return, the 49ers needed him immediately, as Jauan Jennings missed Weeks 7 and 8 and Aiyuk suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7. When Jennings returned, he took Aiyuk’s spot rather than returning to the slot. This meant Pearsall was the 49ers’ primary slot receiver for the rest of the season.

Pearsall got off to a promising start, with 11 receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown in the first three weeks, along with a 39-yard run. However, he followed that up with three games without a reception, and two games with one reception each. While it was understandable that Samuel, Jennings and tight end George Kittle received most of the targets, it would have been good to see Pearsall be a little more involved in the offense.

He started to bounce back in Week 16, with four receptions for 37 yards. In Week 17, he had his best game of the season, securing eight receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown against the Detroit Lions in a surprisingly competitive game. The 49ers opted to rest some starters and pull other starters early in Week 18 to give other players opportunities. This allowed Pearsall to be an every-down player for one game. He caught six passes for 69 yards and a touchdown.

While his role was primarily the third receiver in three-receiver sets, Pearsall played notably better when lined up out wide, finishing with 1.59 yards per route run out wide, compared to 0.87 in the slot. Most slot receivers generally play better against zone coverage than man, but Pearsall was a clear exception. He averaged 2.11 yards per route run against man, compared to 1.09 against zone.

The 49ers traded Samuel to the Washington Commanders this offseason. This ensures that Pearsall will at least be among the top three wide receivers on the team’s depth chart in 2025. There is no guarantee that Aiyuk will be ready for the season, either, as he recovers from injury. When everyone is healthy, Aiyuk is expected to be the X receiver, Jennings the Z and Pearsall the slot. The 49ers signed Demarcus Robinson in free agency, and he could take the X spot until Aiyuk is ready. The other possibility is that Jennings could play X while Pearsall is the Z in base while Aiyuk is out. Pearsall and Jennings could also swap in three-receiver sets.

Pearsall will need to consistently play in two-receiver sets to have a shot at returning fantasy value this season. From Weeks 7-17 last year, Jennings played 71% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps in two-receiver sets, while Samuel played 66%, Pearsall played 28% and Chris Conley played 24%. Pearsall should be able to beat out Robinson for those base snaps, but surpassing Aiyuk or Jennings will be more difficult.

As we’ve gotten closer to the season, it’s become more likely that Pearsall will see time as an every-down receiver. Jennings remains out due to an injury and is also looking for a new contract. Recent reports suggest he and the team are not close on a contract extension. Aiyuk remains on the physically unable to perform list, and head coach Kyle Shanahan recently suggested he could return around Week 6.

On top of that, fifth-round rookie wide receiver Jordan Watkins suffered a high ankle sprain and will miss a month. Backup wide receiver Jacob Cowing missed the first week of the preseason but recently returned to practice. This has forced San Francisco to look elsewhere at wide receiver, trading for Skyy Moore and adding Marquez Valdes-Scantling after cut-down day. Aiyuk’s and Jennings’ situations have led Pearsall’s ADP to rise.

Pearsall played on the first drive of the 49ers’ second preseason game in an every-down role. He’s expected to be a slot receiver in three-receiver sets when everyone is healthy, a role he handled for most of last season. Even when the team used three-receiver sets, Pearsall was lining up on the outside rather than playing in the slot. Robinson was the other outside receiver with the starters, while Russell Gage played in three-receiver sets.

After the first drive, Brock Purdy, Kyle Juszczyk, Pearsall and Kittle stopped playing, suggesting Pearsall is already on the same level as the 49ers’ starters. He caught three of four targets for 42 yards on his one drive.

Even then, the 49ers have George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, who will take a high percentage of those targets. They have been the rare team in recent seasons to have four fantasy-starting skill players. It’s practically impossible to have five, so beating out either Aiyuk or Jennings is an absolute necessity for Pearsall. 

San Francisco ranks consistently near the bottom of the league in 11-personnel usage, which is why it’s so important for Pearsall to play significantly in two-receiver sets. The offense also doesn’t throw as much to wide receivers due to Kittle and McCaffrey.

Luckily, the 49ers have become more pass-heavy since Purdy emerged as the team’s starting quarterback. Purdy has graded relatively well in the offense, displaying good accuracy, and his work in Shanahan’s system has produced one of the best offenses in the league. That combination is why Pearsall is worth considering, despite the significant competition for touches, over other second-year wide receivers who similarly didn’t become fantasy starters during their rookie seasons.

Pearsall is a lottery ticket at wide receiver. The most likely scenario is you won’t be able to trust starting him, but if he works his way up the depth chart, there is a path to him becoming a top-20 fantasy wide receiver.

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