• Jared Goff is poised to excel against Green Bay’s defense: Goff and company face a plus matchup at every position group and have a schematic advantage against zone-heavy defenses like the Packers’.

• Kyler Murray will gash the Saints on the ground: The issues stem from New Orleans’ struggles to bring down quarterbacks after they break the pocket. The defense allowed the most rushing yardage on scrambles (389) last season. 

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These are some of the best quarterback player prop bets to target in Week 1 for the 2025 NFL season. 

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

• Over 243.5 passing yards (-120)

Although credit throughout his career has generally been heaped on his well-respected play-callers, Sean McVay and Ben Johnson, Jared Goff will enter the 2025 campaign looking to prove yet again that he’s the real deal as a passer.

The Lions hired former Broncos passing game coordinator John Morton as their new offensive coordinator after Johnson departed for the Bears‘ head-coaching job, a positive replacement that gives Goff another great outlook.

Last season, Morton helped orchestrate a Broncos offense that finished 13th in deep pass percentage (12.9%) and sixth in deep PFF passing grade (93.4). Conversely, Johnson’s offense over his three seasons as offensive coordinator in Detroit ranked 32nd in deep pass percentage (8.8%) but second in yards per attempt (7.88). 

That will be a shift in scheme tendency, but the expectation is that the Lions’ offense will retain its core philosophy of getting the ball into the hands of playmakers while trying to progress the deep passing game. It only makes sense. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. And Goff is still surrounded by one of the best supporting casts in football. 

Against Green Bay’s defense, Goff and company face a plus matchup at every position group and have a schematic advantage. Against zone-heavy defenses like the Packers’, Goff was the second-most efficient passer in the NFL last season.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

• Over 21.5 rushing yards (-120)

It’s no surprise that Kyler Murray plays his best when he’s able to showcase his athleticism to create something out of nothing. On the ground last season, Murray generated the second-highest yards per carry average (7.3) among starting quarterbacks. That led to an 81.8 PFF rushing grade and helped Murray go over this line in four of his last six matchups in 2024.

This line is particularly low for an athlete of Murray’s caliber. In fact, the 21.5-yard line sits lower than any other rushing line Murray faced last season. Considering the matchup with a Saints defense that struggled to contain rushing quarterbacks in 2024, this line is set too low. Take advantage while you can. 

This Saints defense allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks last season, including surrendering more than 50 yards in three of their last five games. The issues stem from New Orleans’ struggles to bring down quarterbacks after they break the pocket. The Saints allowed the most rushing yardage on scrambles (389) last season.