• Coen system offers optimism: With Liam Coen as the new head coach, there’s hope Trevor Lawrence can mirror Baker Mayfield‘s success within this system, potentially leading to a significant fantasy boost in the 2025 season.
• Braelon Allen’s short-yardage strength: The New York Jets running back demonstrated his ability to succeed in critical short-yardage situations last season, which is a role he should maintain this season.
• Subscribe to PFF+: It’s quick and easy. You’ll unlock industry-leading rankings, unlimited Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator use, Live Draft Assistant and weekly our Start/Sit Optimizer. It’s time to win.

Estimated reading time: 20 minutes

It can be difficult, but not impossible, to find someone who can help your fantasy team in the last few rounds of the draft. Typically, these players don’t end up working out and end up getting released for the top waiver wire candidates.

However, there are a few players worth taking a chance on, either because their odds of working out are higher than most people think or if, in the small chance they work out, it could happen in a significant way. These are the players you should be considering once you reach the end of your fantasy draft.

The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.

Last updated: Tuesday, August 26

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 15.12)

Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy value peaked in 2022, finishing with a career-high 25 passing touchdowns and a career-high five rushing touchdowns. This led him to finish 12th in fantasy points per game. His quality of play improved in 2023, and he dropped back to pass more often. This led to more passing yards, but he threw fewer touchdowns and ran for fewer touchdowns. This helped him finish among the top-18 fantasy quarterbacks more often but among the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks less often, and ultimately decreased his fantasy value.

Lawrence’s fantasy value continued to dip in 2024. His per-game stats are somewhat deceiving, as he had a game with only 10 passing attempts, but he was held under 200 passing yards in five other games. He failed to reach 200 yards only twice in 2023. Two of these games were from a very low passing attempt total, but there was one game where he had 38 attempts and 178 yards. These games largely occurred before Brian Thomas Jr. fully broke out and while Evan Engram was injured.

Lawrence suffered a shoulder injury in Week 9, which he also suffered at the end of 2023. He returned briefly in Week 13, but he suffered a concussion and didn’t return that season. Throughout Lawrence’s last three seasons, he’s been a high-risk, high-reward quarterback. His 1.8 big-time throws per game over the last two seasons are the fourth-most among quarterbacks, but he’s also had one of the highest turnover-worthy throw rates.

Lawrence is learning a new offensive system this year with Liam Coen as his new head coach. One big reason for optimism for Lawrence is how well Baker Mayfield played last season in Coen’s system. Mayfield received a 72.8 passing grade in 2023, which is comparable to Lawrence in recent seasons, and Mayfield’s passing game jumped to 82.4 in 2024. Similarly, his fantasy points per game jumped from 16.7 to 22.5. Lawrence has generally run the ball more often than Mayfield, so there is room for Lawrence’s fantasy production to be even higher.

Lawrence’s time to throw was consistently low during his time under Doug Pederson, but his average depth of target skyrocketed, leading to lower accuracy rates. We should expect his average target depth to decrease considerably. Lawrence’s deep ball accuracy over the last three years was in the bottom quarter of the league, but he finished in the top quarter of the league on short passes. The change in offensive philosophy should be a great asset to his fantasy value. 

The Jaguars have largely reworked their receiver room. Jacksonville traded up to the second overall pick for Travis Hunter and signed Dyami Brown to be their field stretcher in free agency. The Jaguars have tried several veteran wide receivers to help Lawrence, but the young duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter should be the best pair of Lawrence’s career. Jacksonville moved on from Lawrence’s safety net of Evan Engram, but Brenton Strange had a very similar receiving grade last season. Strange is another ascending player who should fill his role respectably.

Trevor Lawrence is a high-upside backup option in single quarterback leagues, and he, at best, can become your usual starter and, at worst, be an adequate fill-in during bye weeks. In superflex leagues, he is a somewhat risky second option.

RB Braelon Allen, New York Jets (ADP: 15.07)

Allen joined the Jets as a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He took over for New York’s primary backup to Breece Hall in 2023, Dalvin Cook, whom the Jets didn’t end up re-signing. Hall was dealing with a quadriceps injury early in the 2024 campaign, allowing Allen to log seven carries for 33 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 and 11 carries for 55 yards in Week 3.

His playing time fluctuated throughout the year, between two to seven carries in most weeks. Allen started in Week 14 when Hall was out due to a knee injury. He played 54.4% of New York’s offensive snaps in that game, while his high in other weeks was 36.5%. He ran 11 times for 43 yards and caught four passes for 38 yards, while fifth-round rookie Isaiah Davis was also given an opportunity to shine.

Allen averaged a low 3.6 yards per carry, but he graded well thanks to his excellent play in short-yardage situations. He ran the ball 16 times when the Jets needed 2 yards or less for a first down, and he converted 14 of them. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry on those runs, while the league average was 3.2. His 90.0 PFF rushing grade on such plays was the best among running backs. 

The Jets didn’t make any changes to their backfield for 2025, as Hall and Davis were Allen’s primary sources of competition. The team did add quarterback Justin Fields, who will be running the ball a lot more than Aaron Rodgers. This could also include short-yardage situations. The Jets voted to keep the tush push, so there is a chance Fields, in particular, could take those 1-yard carries, even though Allen was very successful on them.

Allen is one of the biggest running backs in the league, measuring 6-foot-1 and 235 pounds. Most running backs of that size aren’t used significantly in passing situations. Derrick Henry, Najee Harris, Gus Edwards, D’Onta Foreman and James Conner have rarely been used in passing situations. Henry and Conner have been able to turn into consistent fantasy starters despite this, but Allen would need to at least double his rushing attempts per game to reach their level.

The Jets will feature a new coaching staff in 2025, headlined by head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, both of whom were hired from the Detroit Lions. In recent years, the Lions have used either Jamaal Williams or David Montgomery on early downs, and D’Andre Swift or Jahmyr Gibbs on passing downs. Allen could be well-suited for that early-down role, as he’s bigger than Williams and Montgomery. The two were used to convert first downs, wear down defenses and, most importantly, score touchdowns.

The running back in this role has finished in the top 20 in fantasy points per game each of the past three seasons. A few things need to go right for Allen to reach that top-20 range. Engstrand needs to use the same running back rotation, and Fields can’t be used as the runner in short-yardage situations. The first preseason game was a step in the right direction. While Hall got the start, Allen and Hall rotated in and out throughout the first drive and Davis played on third downs.

The Jets also need their offensive line to play close to the Lions’ level. Detroit has ranked among the top 10 in PFF run-blocking grade each of the past three seasons, while the Jets placed 12th last season. The Jets moved on from veteran tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses and replaced them with two first-round picks in Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou. The entire line has a very high positively graded play rate, which is generally good for breaking long runs. The unit has mixed results when it comes to negatively blocked runs.

However, Allen stood out in how well he played on non-perfectly blocked runs, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Montgomery also logged 3.4 yards per carry on non-perfectly blocked runs, but he was better on the positively blocked runs. If Allen can avoid more tackles once the line gives him those clean blocks, it could make a big difference to his fantasy production.

The goal is for Allen to be the next David Montgomery. The coaching staff needs to use him in that role, the offense needs to play well enough for Allen to score enough points, and Justin Fields can’t be used on the tush push. While that is a lot, there is similarly a lot for any other late-round running back, and this one doesn’t require an injury to a starter.

TE Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 19.02)

Chig Okonkwo was a Titans fourth-round pick in 2022 as an undersized tight end with excellent speed and athleticism. Over the last three seasons, the only tight ends who have been faster are Jonnu Smith and Darren Waller, based on NGS tracking data.

Okonkwo started his career third on the Titans’ depth charts. Austin Hooper was the primary receiving tight end, Geoff Swaim was the primary blocker, and Okonkwo was the primary backup in both. He was excellent on a per-play basis, finishing with a high target rate on his limited routes. His 2.62 yards per route run was tied for the most by a tight end in a season in the last three seasons. He was tied with George Kittle from this season, and the third-place tight end finished with 2.23 yards per route run.

The Titans moved on from both Hooper and Swaim for 2023, adding Trevon Wesco to be their blocking tight end. They drafted Josh Whyle and had Kevin Rader also play notable snaps. The Titans’ run-first offense limited his routes even though he was on the field for a high percentage of pass plays. His 403 routes were the 18th-most among tight ends despite playing every game. His big plays disappeared, and he was remarkably average. His yards per route run were cut in half, but his routes more than doubled, leading to a slight increase in fantasy points.

The Titans gave Josh Whyle a more prominent role in 2024 and swapped out Wesco for Nick Vannett. The Titans ran more plays in 2024 and asked the tight ends to stay in and block less often, leading to more routes run by their tight ends, but a lower percentage of those were by Okonkwo. He started avoiding more tackles, but his quarterbacks weren’t necessarily taking advantage. His 0.71 avoided tackles per game was the sixth-most among tight ends.

Okonkwo’s role in the Titans’ offense evolved as the season progressed. He averaged 57.4% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps over the first 10 weeks of the season, and that increased to 72.4% over the next seven weeks before suffering an abdominal injury early in Week 18. He caught a 70-yard touchdown pass in Week 12, leading to a higher target rate over the rest of the season. In the fantasy playoffs, he caught 22 passes for 182 yards, along with a 17-yard run. While he couldn’t be used as a fantasy starter throughout the fantasy regular season, his 43.9 fantasy points during the playoffs were the fourth-most behind Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta and George Kittle despite not scoring a touchdown.

After the season, head coach Brian Callahan had plenty of great things to say about Okonkwo’s development as a tight end, which is a promising sign for his future.

The Titans opted not to re-sign Vannett but instead drafted Gunnar Helm in the second round. Helm has already surpassed Josh Whyle on the depth chart, but it seems like Helm will largely be used in two-tight-end sets.

Ideally, Okonkwo will pick up exactly where he left off last season. In his last two healthy games, Okonkwo played 76% of Tennessee’s snaps in 11 personnel, 87% of the 12 personnel snaps, and 100% of the 13, 21 and 22 personnel snaps. If Okonkwo continued this for the whole season, that would be excellent for his fantasy potential. Through three weeks of the preseason, Okonkwo has played 37 of a possible 41 snaps, suggesting his role will be just as big, if not bigger.

Okonkwo would have finished 16th in fantasy points per game among tight ends if he had his late-season route rate mixed with his season-long production per route.

The Titans made several changes to their wide receiver room, adding Tyler Lockett, Van Jefferson and several Day 3 and undrafted rookies. That, mixed with Calvin Ridley, gives Okonkwo minimal competition for targets relative to all other tight ends in the league.

Okonkwo will be in his second season with Brian Callahan as head coach. His offense looked very different in Tennessee compared to the Cincinnati Bengals without Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. The Titans ran the ball much more often and were more willing to throw to tight ends.

There is a chance the Titans will be more pass-heavy this season with Cameron Ward at quarterback. Ward had a low deep target rate, low first read rate and great accuracy on short passes, which is all good news for Okonkwo. However, Ward also doesn’t have a lot of experience throwing to tight ends. There is a chance Okonkwo finishes second on the team in targets, but that depends completely on his ability to gain chemistry and Ward’s trust. 

Okonkwo has shown he has the speed and big-play ability to be a fantasy starting tight end and has had the playing time to be a fantasy starter. He didn’t put that all together until the last few weeks of last season. Okonkwo can be a top-12 fantasy tight end next season if he keeps the playing time he had to end last season and gains chemistry with Cameron Ward.

RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 15.08)

Bhayshul Tuten earned high grades during his first two collegiate years at North Carolina A&T before transferring to Virginia Tech. He has been the Hokies’ lead running back in the last two seasons, although he has shared duties on third downs.

Tuten’s 86.7 career FBS rushing grade is the second-lowest among the top-11 consensus running backs, but he arguably had the least help from his offensive line. His 1.6 yards before contact per attempt were tied for the lowest among those 11 running backs. That likely hurt his ability to gain first downs, but he, at least, partially made up for it with his big-play ability. While Tuten posted a blazing-fast 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the combine, his top speeds based on PFF’s tracking data have been merely average for a prospective NFL running back.

Tuten joins a complicated Jaguars backfield, making it even more perplexing. Last season, the Jaguars utilized a three-back committee with Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson. The team opted not to re-sign Johnson, and a new coaching staff means the rotation from last season isn’t very helpful in determining what will happen this season.

Etienne started his career, looking like a great runner with an 83.2 PFF run grade. His run grade has steadily declined (62.8 last season). Bigsby was the better runner, but his role in the passing game has been nonexistent. Before Tuten’s arrival, it seemed like Bigsby could be Jacksonville’s early-down back while Etienne is the passing-down back. Etienne dealt with injuries last season, which potentially impacted his grades. This meant there was a chance of Etienne regaining his early-down role.

Tuten was a feature back at Virginia Tech, dominating snaps, particularly in short-yardage situations, and only playing roughly half of the third-down snaps. This suggests Tuten is more of a threat to Bigsby’s snaps. From a measurable standpoint, Tuten stands out from the other two backs, ranking in the 88th percentile or better in the 40-yard dash, 10-yard split, bench press, vertical jump, broad jump and 20-yard shuttle. New head coach Liam Coen was the offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where Rachaad White was similarly athletic but as a bigger back. White was primarily a receiving back. The fact that Tuten was picked by the new regime and the others weren’t worked in his favor, but being a fourth-round pick works against him.

Bigsby and Etienne were the starting running backs in the preseason. Tuten dealt with an injury early in training camp, which potentially made it more difficult for him to get time with the starters, but he was among the key players to sit out the Jaguars’ final preseason game. Recently, Liam Coen commented on how it is nearly impossible to have four active on gamedays, and it’s a challenge they’ll need to work out. There will be trade rumors around Bigsby and Etienne until one is traded or the trade deadline passes. It might take a move for Tuten to reach his fantasy potential.

Tuten will have Liam Coen as his new offensive coordinator. There weren’t many similarities between his offense with the Los Angeles Rams and his offense with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the very least, Coen showed a willingness to get a fourth-round pick involved with Bucky Irving last season. While Irving and Tuten are the same height and were fourth-round picks, there are also plenty of differences between the two backs.

Tuten should be viewed more favorably than most handcuff running backs. Like all handcuffs, there is a chance he won’t hold any fantasy value this upcoming season, but there is also a path for significant playing time if he can simply outperform the other running backs on the roster.

WR DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots (ADP: 19.08)

DeMario Douglas was a Patriots sixth-round pick in 2023. He was expected to be the backup slot receiver to free agent addition JuJu Smith-Schuster. In Week 1, Smith-Schuster played more offensive snaps because he played in two-receiver sets. Douglas took more snaps than Smith-Schuster in three-receiver sets. He played fewer snaps in Week 2, playing less than one-third of New England’s offensive snaps in the following four games, and he missed Week 6 due to a concussion.

His role notably increased on his return with Smith-Schuster missing a game. He caught four passes for 54 yards while playing 100% of the 11 personnel snaps. He played better in that game than in any game Smith-Schuster had played to that point, so Douglas kept his role and played at least 70% of New England’s offensive snaps in every game he was healthy the rest of the season. Along with taking nearly all of the 11 personnel snaps, he started taking a majority of snaps in two-receiver sets. He peaked in Week 10 in terms of his stats with six receptions for 84 yards. He missed two games due to injury. The last two weeks of the season, he played 94% and 97% of the snaps, respectively, but that didn’t lead to much receiving production.

The Patriots moved on from Smith-Schuster in the preseason, but the Patriots’ new coaching staff had a different plan for Douglas. He played 90% of the snaps in 11 personnel, which was similar to a lot of last season but only 19% of the snaps in two-receiver sets, which was a significant downgrade from the end of last season. He ultimately ran more routes per game, but it was fewer routes per game compared to the end of last season. His target rate declined, which ultimately led to a decrease in yards per game. Douglas scored three touchdowns, which was more than his zero from his rookie season. He caught six passes for 92 yards and a touchdown in his best game but was held to 20 yards or less in seven games.

His 0.235 avoided tackles per reception has ranked sixth-most among wide receivers over the last two seasons. He also has one of the highest single coverage open rates. He’s also had very high single coverage open rates the last two seasons. This suggests he could be a very good wide receiver given more opportunities.

The Patriots made multiple changes to their wide receiver room. New England kept its three other top wide receivers from last season, as well as 2024 fourth-round pick Javon Baker. They added Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins in free agency and Kyle Williams in the draft.

The good news is that none of them should be significant competition for Douglas in the slot. None of the returning wide receivers played significantly in the slot last season. Williams and Hollins have primarily played on the outside. Stefon Diggs was primarily a slot receiver last season for the Houston Texans, but he primarily played on the outside with the Buffalo Bills. Diggs had a higher yards per route run on the outside while Douglas earned more in the slot, so it makes sense for both players to play where they’ve performed better.

The Patriots have added Josh McDaniels as their new offensive coordinator, which is a big reason to be optimistic about Douglas’ production. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman had three 1,000-yard seasons each in McDaniels’ offense. They were both roughly the same size as Douglas and also primarily played in the slot. Douglas is notably faster, as he performed better in the vertical and broad jumps, but both Welker and Edelman were elite in the 20-yard shuttle, while Douglas was only above average. Welker and Edelman were both top-15 fantasy wide receivers in each of their 1,000-yard seasons. In four of those six seasons, they only graded in the 70.0s but simply had a lot of volume.

While McDaniels’ offense may feed Douglas similarly to how they fed Welker and Edelman, and Douglas doesn’t necessarily need to improve his quality of play, he will be catching passes from Drake Maye instead of Tom Brady. Maye’s 67.8% short pass accuracy has been strong and better than Brady’s at the end of his career but not as good as Brady’s peak. It was better than Brady’s 65% in 2019 in Edelman’s final 1,000-yard season but not as good as Brady’s 73.1% in Edelman’s middle 1,000-yard season in 2016. Maye also had a very high rate of either getting sacked or scrambling, which wasn’t true with Brady.

However, even if Maye isn’t quite as good as Brady, which therefore doesn’t put Douglas in the top-15 range, there is still plenty of room for significant improvement in Douglas’ stats, making him a top-30 wide receiver, which would make him a big value at his current ADP.

Douglas has very rarely finished as a top-24 wide receiver in any week, but there are metrics to support that he’s a better receiver than his raw stats show, and new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has a history of featuring receivers like Douglas. He is one of the best late-round wide receiver options, if not the best.