• A game with massive Big 12 implications: Even though it’s the first game of the 2025 season, this game could have huge consequences for the conference.

• How will Rocco Becht do without his two star receivers?The Iowa State quarterback enters this season without his two best pass-catchers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.

• Win with PFF+: From draft day to championship week, PFF+ is the ultimate Fantasy sidekick. Get the Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator, Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Draft Kit, weekly waiver suggestions, Start/Sit Optimizer and more.

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

The 2025 college football season kicks off this weekend with a massive showdown in Ireland between No. 17 Kansas State and No. 22 Iowa State. It’s the first Week 0 game between ranked teams in 25 years.

Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for this pivotal Big 12 game.

Editor’s note: Enjoy this PFF+ article and explore others free until Aug. 29.

No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats (-3) vs. No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones (Dublin, Ireland, 12 PM ET on ESPN)

Storyline to know: A game that could have massive Big 12 implications down the line

Yes, it’s the very first game of the 2025 college football season. Even though it’s extremely early to be thinking about the Big 12 race, this game could be pivotal in determining who makes it to the Big 12 Championship Game in December to fight for a College Football Playoff spot.

The Big 12 is easily the most wide-open conference in America. Two teams are currently tied for the best odds to win the conference at +550 on DraftKings Sportsbook: Kansas State and Arizona State. Every other conference’s favorite has +300 odds or shorter. Iowa State made the conference title game last season and is the third-highest-ranked team in the Big 12, according to the AP Top 25 poll. 

Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Dalton): Can the Wildcats find their trademark rhythm on the ground?

Despite running a defense that uses just three down linemen more than any team in the Power Four, Iowa State has found a way to slow down Kansas State’s running game over the past several seasons. Their odd fronts, team speed and strong tackling have given the Wildcats fits — particularly last year, as Kansas State’s running backs simply couldn’t get going.

DJ Giddens, Joe Jackson and Dylan Edwards combined for 18 carries and 80 rushing yards in last year’s matchup. Giddens did most of the work, but even half of his 72 yards came about via one explosive carry in the third quarter. That group also did not force a single missed tackle. The Wildcats too often found themselves in disadvantageous situations on third down because they couldn’t generate enough yardage on the ground on early downs.

Part of the issue is that the Cyclones have done a nice job of wreaking havoc up front. Kansas State has posted a PFF run-blocking grade of 62.0 or worse in each of the past three matchups between these two teams. Against all other teams in that span, Kansas State has earned a 73.0 PFF run-blocking grade. When facing Iowa State, that grade drops to 58.8.

Quarterback Avery Johnson showed off his effectiveness as a runner in this game last season, but the Wildcats need to find balance in their backfield in order to avoid the obvious passing situations with which they generally struggle.

Matchup to watch when Iowa State has the ball (Max): How will Rocco Becht fare without Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel?

Iowa State had one of the 25 most efficient offenses in America last year in terms of EPA per play, largely due to its two star receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Now that they’re both on the Houston Texans, Becht will be forced to carry the offense much more as a redshirt junior. There are reasons to be pessimistic about his ability to do so, considering he earned a sub-70.0 PFF passing grade in 2024, plus the Cyclones lost their two best offensive linemen from a unit that was already the eighth-worst in the Power Four (59.2 overall PFF grade).

The good news for Becht is that Kansas State’s defense was far better at defending the run than the pass last year, placing 101st in team PFF pass-rushing grade and 80th in PFF coverage grade. Making matters worse is the fact that the Wildcats lost their best pass-rusher in edge defender Brendan Mott and four of five starters from their secondary.

Predictions

Max: Kansas State 27, Iowa State 24

The Wildcats’ run game proves to be very successful against the Cyclones, and Kansas State begins the 2025 season on the right foot with a close victory.

Dalton: Kansas State 23, Iowa State 20

Kansas State played an error-filled game in Iowa State last year, and the team still had a chance to tie the score late. If the Wildcat can cut down on even half of their mistakes, they can take advantage of Iowa State’s inexperienced weapons in a defensive battle.