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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Risk and reward for drafting a quarterback later in 2025 superflex drafts

Jon Macri details the the risk and reward when fantasy football managers select a quarterback later in 2025 superflex drafts.


Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Risk and reward for drafting a quarterback later in 2025 superflex drafts

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Risk and reward for drafting a quarterback later in 2025 superflex drafts

By

Jonathon Macri

  • Targeting the upside of the skill positions: For those who miss out on an elite quarterback, or don’t want to miss out on an elite wide receiver or running back, this strategy is for you.
  • Finding the hidden gems at the position capable of delivering top-10 performances: Every year some undervalued quarterbacks deliver strong fantasy seasons, and we’ll look to identify the best shots to do so in 2025.
  • Win with PFF+From draft day to championship week, PFF+ is the ultimate Fantasy sidekick. Get the Fantasy Mock Draft SimulatorLive Draft AssistantFantasy Draft Kitweekly waiver suggestionsStart/Sit Optimizer and more.

Estimated reading time: 13 minutes


I recently covered the RB-RB-RB draft strategy, as well as the WR-WR-WR draft strategy for one-QB leagues, looking at the high upside potential of a position-heavy build.

For superflex leagues, the obvious route is to go QB-heavy in most drafts, but things don’t always work out that way for certain drafters. Hitting on the quarterback position can lead to top-five overall upside across all positions, providing a massive advantage to those rosters. While the best bets to hit those marks are being drafted early, it doesn’t mean that we can’t find those options later on in drafts. This was the case last year with Baker Mayfield (QB4) and Jayden Daniels (QB5) being drafted as QB21 and QB13, respectively. And the year prior with Dak Prescott (QB4) and Jordan Love (QB5) being drafted as QB10 and QB22, respectively.

For that reason and the purposes of this strategy, we’ll aim to have our cake and eat it too by targeting the best bets to finish as RB1 and WR1 early on and find the ideal QB1 candidates in the later rounds.

While having a set strategy heading into a draft can help a player feel prepared, it’s important to be ready to pivot from the original game plan if things don’t go as planned, or if there’s significant value that falls to you.

PPR scoring top finishers by position since 2015
TOP: 3 5 10 25 50 75 100 150
QB 60% 62% 53% 54% 40% 32% 27% 21%
RB 23% 22% 26% 19% 22% 25% 27% 27%
WR 17% 16% 21% 25% 33% 37% 39% 40%
TE 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 7% 12%
0.5 PPR scoring top finishers by position since 2015
TOP: 3 5 10 25 50 75 100 150
QB 77% 76% 72% 60% 43% 32% 27% 20%
RB 13% 12% 13% 16% 22% 25% 25% 26%
WR 0% 2% 5% 13% 22% 29% 33% 34%
TE 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 4% 6% 10%
Non-PPR scoring top finishers by position since 2015
TOP: 3 5 10 25 50 75 100 150
QB 93% 92% 92% 78% 53% 39% 32% 24%
RB 7% 8% 8% 17% 29% 32% 31% 31%
WR 0% 0% 0% 5% 17% 26% 33% 37%
TE 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 5% 9%

As highlighted in the charts above, the quarterback position dominates the top-10 overall scorers on the year, and that potential only grows as fewer points are awarded per reception. The good news is that those top-10 quarterbacks can come from well outside that range in ADP, as both Sam Darnold (QB30 ADP) and Bo Nix (QB31 ADP) proved last season.

Of course, the safest bets to deliver elite fantasy finishes at the quarterback position are already being drafted within the top five at the position, though that’s the case at running back and wide receiver as well. Ideally, we can identify the quarterbacks going outside of that range in ADP who have the best shot to greatly outperform their ADPs while scooping as much elite value at the skill positions for this strategy to pay off.

This article will focus on PPR superflex scoring since that is where the ADP is pulled from on Sleeper. 

Draft strategy context:
  • League size: 12 teams
  • Scoring settings are full PPR, Superflex (2-QBs) 
  • ADP referenced is from Sleeper

QB archetypes to target

Looking at each of the top five QB finishers over the last five seasons, the chart below highlights the key metrics that they hit in order to identify the criteria needed for each of the quarterbacks we’re going to target later. 

Key metrics from past fantasy quarterbacks who finished inside the top five since 2020:
Top-5 QBs (since 2020) Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Average 5.3 10.8 6.3 271.6 87.1

We’ll use Rounds 5-7 (QB11-20) as our target range since that begins the run of quarterbacks going outside the top 10, and it also gives us four legitimate cracks at elite skill position players. Once the quarterbacks are highlighted, we’ll run through what the builds can look like through several pick ranges and which RB, WR, TE options we can start drafts with from those ranges.


ROUND 5

Williams’ 2024 numbers through 16 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 4.3 2 3.0 212.1 63.5
  • Williams’ rush attempts per game are a top-10 mark, though he’ll need to be more efficient in that regard to deliver more than 3.0 rushing fantasy points per game.
  • With more goal-line attempts, ideally as the team gets better this season, Williams will have a chance to improve in that regard.
  • The Ben Johnson addition, an improved offensive line and added receiving threats should allow Williams to improve across the board, which is why his ADP puts him as QB11 compared to the QB15 mark he hit last season, as the expectation is for a much better Year 2.
Purdy’s 2024 numbers through 15 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 3.9 8 4.2 257.6 76.3
  • Even after a down year for the 49ers in 2024, Purdy still delivered a QB1 season as the overall QB12 on the year.
  • On close to four rush attempts per game, Purdy can at least add more on the ground than most pocket passers, even ranking top-10 (min. 200 dropbacks) in rushing fantasy points per game last season.
  • There are still questions about the 49ers receiving weapons and their health for 2025, but the situation could still improve from last year with a healthy Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield, and if both Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings can get back in the lineup.
  • Purdy will look to get back to his QB6 finish in 2023 if that’s the case, and he is well worth the bet in this range as our QB1 after back-to-back seasons as a QB1.
Goff’s 2024 numbers through 16 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 1.2 1 0.4 274.9 79.5
  • Goff is coming off three straight seasons of being a top-12 fantasy quarterback and is once again being drafted outside of that range.
  • There is next to no rushing potential with Goff, so we’ll be banking purely on his passing ability, which has at least been on par with past QB1 finishers, as he averaged 274.9 yards per game in 2024.
  • Helping Goff’s case is the supporting cast around him, playing behind a top offensive line with multiple high-end threats to throw the ball to from every position on offense.
  • Goff is a perfectly solid weekly QB option to make this late-QB strategy work as we aim for the upside at other positions.
Maye’s 2024 numbers through 12 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 4.0 2 4.5 189.7 64.9
  • Maye could be in for a breakout year in 2025 after flashing his fantasy potential as a rookie.
  • Maye is a rushing threat, as he scrambled at the second-highest rate in the league (10.7%), behind only Jayden Daniels, and racked up four runs per game on the year.
  • This was the case with Maye in college as well, and if he gets more comfortable doing so at the next level, there’s even more fantasy potential to unlock.
  • A new offensive system under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels should ask Maye to get more out of his pass attempts after ranking bottom-10 in the league with a 7.4-yard average depth of target.
  • More deep throws and being more efficient as a runner should allow Maye to deliver a fantasy season worthy of having him in top-12 consideration.
Stroud’s 2024 numbers through 16 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 2.3 4 1.5 229.8 77.6
  • Stroud was unable to deliver on his top-five ADP heading into the 2024 season, but that doesn’t mean that he isn’t capable of getting back to that point.
  • Cleaning up on the amount of sacks that he is taking while also having a healthy Nico Collins for an entire season could have Stroud in contention as a darkhorse QB1 candidate.
  • Stroud has plenty of room to bounce back after a down season, and the Jayden Higgins addition as a second-round pick, as well as Christian Kirk as the team’s primary slot defender, on top of Collins as a starter, makes for a strong supporting cast.
  • For those drafting at the end of the fifth round, Stroud, paired with one of our next quarterbacks, offers enough upside to make this strategy pay off.

ROUND 6

Prescott’s 2024 numbers through 8 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 1.4 2 1.4 247.3 67.2
  • Since 2019, Prescott has finished as a top-12 quarterback every other year, which includes a QB2 finish in 2019, a QB7 finish in 2021 and a QB4 finish in 2023.
  • Of course, only playing eight games last season kept him far from that range in 2024, but he has top-10 upside within his range of outcomes. 
  • A healthy season for Prescott with both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to throw the ball to can potentially lead to him delivering another great fantasy season.
  • If the Cowboys’ season goes well, then Prescott should be a big reason for that, and he holds the top-10 fantasy upside to make him a worthy bet as our potential QB2 in this superflex strategy.
Love’s 2024 numbers through 14 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 1.1 4 1.0 237.1 76.6
  • Love’s first year as a starter resulted in a QB5 overall finish for fantasy, and while he wasn’t able to repeat that feat in 2024, he’s at least capable of getting there.
  • Love also missed time due to injury last season, which resulted in a slower start.
  • Love’s potential bounce back comes from the solid options throughout his receiving corps, including the first first-round wide receiver draft pick by the team since 2002, Matthew Golden, who profiles as a deep threat to start his NFL career, bringing elite 4.29 speed.
  • If Golden is able to hit the ground running in the NFL, he could end up being the perfect fit for this Packers offense, which ranks at the top of the league in deep pass rate (15.1%) over the past two seasons combined.
  • The Packers’ receiving corps isn’t necessarily an elite group, but they are deep with talent, which gives Love plenty of options to rely on across an entire healthy season.
Fields’ 2024 numbers through 10 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 5.3 9 5.9 110.6 66.3
  • Anytime Fields is in a position to start, he’s delivered high-end fantasy production. 
  • This was the case last season across just six starts, where he ranked as the overall QB6 in fantasy over that stretch, and it was the case in his previous seasons with the Chicago Bears, where if he was healthy and starting, he often scored as at least a top-10 fantasy quarterback. 
  • With the expectation that Fields will take over as the Jets QB1 for all of 2025, top 10 should be considered his floor, and he has aspirations to push for that overall QB1 crown.
  • Like we saw with 2019 Lamar Jackson, high-end passing isn’t completely necessary, but he will rely on outlier rushing totals, which Fields is capable of, but to help his odds, we’ll ideally see an increase in passing ability this season.
  • Getting Fields at this point in the draft makes him one of the most optimal targets for this strategy as he is the only quarterback who holds this elite level of rushing ability beyond the top-tier options, making him a bet worth making in any superflex draft.

ROUND 7

McCarthy’s 2025 Projections for 16 fantasy games:
2025 projections Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals N/A N/A 2.9 224.7 N/A
  • Kevin O’Connell’s offense allowed Sam Darnold to thrive last season, delivering 20.0 fantasy points per game and finishing the year as the overall QB7.
  • The combination of scheme and elite weapons like Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison makes life as easy and productive as possible for the Vikings’ starting quarterback.
  • Even without any NFL action under his belt, McCarthy should have no problem returning starting fantasy value this season, potentially even beyond superflex leagues based on what Darnold accomplished in 2024.
  • One of the top sleeper quarterback options for fantasy, McCarthy is an easy bet to make as our QB2, and even better if he’s our QB3.
Lawrence’s 2024 numbers through 10 fantasy games:
2024 numbers Runs per game Goal-line rush attempts Rushing FF PTs per game Passing yards per game PFF passing grade
Totals 2.2 4 3.0 204.5 73.8
  • Injuries plagued the second half of Lawrence’s 2024 season, ultimately crushing his fantasy potential.
  • However, the Jaguars and Lawrence are set up to potentially have their best season since Lawrence was drafted in 2021.
  • Liam Coen running the offense should allow the Jaguars’ passing game to thrive while also adding Travis Hunter as the second overall pick to pair with Year 2 of Brian Thomas Jr. this season.
  • There is a lot more optimism about the Jaguars offense this season, and a healthy Lawrence should thrive for fantasy if all comes to fruition, making him a perfectly strong option for this strategy.

What a late-QB draft can look like

Utilizing Sleeper’s average draft position (ADP), we can get a better idea of how these strategies play out using the early, middle, and late picks in order to better visualize your favorite outcome.

PICKS 1-4 BUILD
PICKS 5-8 BUILD
PICKS 9-12 BUILD

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