• Jamien Sherwood checks every box to emerge as the LB1 in 2025: A new zone-heavy defense for a high-end tackler could make Sherwood the best bet to take the LB1 throne this season.
• The Los Angeles Rams present two clear candidates to lead their positions in IDP production: Both Jared Verse and Kobie Turner are being drafted outside the top-10 at their positions, but are undeniably capable of outperforming those ADPs at the very least, with IDP1 potential.
• The best deal of the year: Use the discount code earlybird to save up to 33% on your PFF+ subscription.

Estimated reading time: 18 minutes

Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues, given the relative instability of NFL defenses, as proven by Andrew Van Ginkel and Zack Baun last year. With that in mind, let’s focus on some of the darkhorse options that have the best shot to be the next IDPs to surprise fantasy managers in 2025.

These darkhorse options are all going outside of the top 10 at their position according to ADP collected by The IDP Show from IDP-only drafts that have been taking place regularly throughout this offseason.

Referenced scoring uses the settings below, with a link to all point leaders for 2022 through 2024 (min. 100 defensive snaps) here.

Edge defender

Before locking in our choice for the dark horse EDGE1 for 2025, it’s going to be important to look back at the past few seasons to see the anatomy of what made up each of the past EDGE1 finishers in IDP.

• Step one to delivering even a top-12 performance at the position is almost certainly going to require at least double-digit sacks, and for those who don’t reach the high-end of that range, the need for another position-leading statistic like tackles, QB hits, or other big plays will be key. 
• This was the case with Andrew Van Ginkel last season, where everything went right for him to deliver an EDGE1 performance (including Aidan Hutchinson getting hurt), as he posted high-end tackle totals while adding multiple defensive touchdowns, despite not being one of the league’s actual top pass rushers.
• Tackle production is important, and to reach that EDGE1 finish, players will often need to combine those sacks with total tackles, as highlighted by all former EDGE1s ranking inside the top 12 at their position in total tackles each season, as Maxx Crosby led the position in 2022 (and 2023).

• The primary focus to put a player over the top will be sacks, and in order to predict who will push for high-end sack totals, we need to dive into the underlying metrics.
• Expected sacks, as explained here, is our most stable and predictive metric for future sacks, so performing well in this regard is going to be crucial for 2025 success.
• While T.J. Watt and Crosby finished inside the top 10 in PFF pass-rush grade in each of their EDGE1 seasons, Van Ginkel made up for that with the variety of big plays, as referenced earlier.
• Typically, we’re looking for players well above average in terms of pressure rate and win rate in each season (min. 250 pass-rush snaps).

With all of these criteria in mind, we can turn our attention to a top candidate to finish as the darkhorse ED1 this coming season. 

2025 Darkhorse EDGE1: Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams

• 2025 ADP: EDGE12

Verse feels too obvious, at least to me, to include on this list, but looking at the IDP Show ADP, Verse is rarely, if ever, taken within that range and is even going after a prime regression candidate from last year in Van Ginkel (ED10). I don’t like to often target the low-hanging fruit, but in this case, that fruit is way too enticing when it involves a player who checks all the boxes needed to emerge as this year’s overall EDGE1.

Verse is coming off a Defensive Rookie of the Year performance in 2024, immediately placing his name among the league’s best. While Verse managed just 4.5 sacks on the year, he is arguably the position’s greatest positive regression candidate when it comes to sacks. If that were to come to fruition as the data suggests, his ED13 finish for IDP last season all of a sudden becomes easily beatable to the point where there’s no question about a top-five IDP finish in 2025, and he has a shot at No. 1 overall.