• Head Coach: Raheem Morris (second season)
• PFF projected win total: 8.0
• 2024 Record: 8-9 (2nd in NFC South)

Biggest strength: Offensive Line

Despite losing standout center Drew Dalman in free agency, Atlanta still features one of the NFL’s top offensive lines, particularly in the run game. The unit led the league in both overall PFF grade (86.2) and run-blocking grade (89.4) last season. The standout of the group remains right guard Chris Lindstrom, who led all guards in PFF grade for the third straight year in 2024.

Biggest weakness: Pass Rush

The Falcons ranked among the bottom three teams in the NFL last season in pass-rush grade, pressure rate, and pass-rush win rate. Limited by cap space, their only notable free-agent addition was Leonard Floyd, who posted just a 54.5 pass-rush grade in 2024. The team is now counting on first-round rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. to inject much-needed production. However, Atlanta risks becoming overly reliant on unproven talent to generate pressure this season.

Quarterback spotlight: Michael Penix Jr.

• 2024 PFF Grade: 87.9
• Key Stat: 9.0% big-time throw rate

Michael Penix Jr. spent the first 15 weeks of last season learning behind Kirk Cousins before starting the Falcons’ final three games. Across those starts and two additional appearances, Penix flashed his elite arm strength and poise in reading defenses, finishing with an impressive 87.6 passing grade. While he’ll need to refine his accuracy — especially when forced off his spot — Penix showcased enough vertical passing ability to suggest he can be a dynamic playmaker moving forward.

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Stable Metrics

Unstable Metrics

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Offensive player: HB Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson took over Atlanta’s backfield in Year 2 and quickly ascended into stardom. His 92.8 PFF grade ranked second among all running backs, trailing only Derrick Henry. He was also one of just two backs — alongside Josh Jacobs — to finish top five in both rushing and receiving grades. With a strong offensive line and questions at quarterback, Robinson is the clear focal point of the offense and enters 2025 with real Offensive Player of the Year upside.

Defensive player: S Jessie Bates III

Jessie Bates’ first two seasons in Atlanta have been nothing short of stellar. Since the start of 2023, his 90.8 PFF grade ranks second among all safeties, trailing only Kyle Hamilton. He’s one of just two safeties in that span to earn 90.0-plus grades in both run defense and coverage. Bates also has 10 interceptions over the past two seasons, fourth-most at the position.

Rookie to watch: ED James Pearce Jr.

James Pearce Jr. was the second of two athletic edge rushers drafted by Atlanta in the first round and brings elite production from the college ranks. Among FBS edge defenders with at least 300 pass-rush snaps over the past two seasons, Pearce ranked first in pressure rate, fourth in PFF pass-rush grade and fifth in pass-rush win rate. With Atlanta’s pass-rush struggles, the Falcons will be counting on immediate impact from both Pearce and fellow rookie Jalon Walker.

Fantasy spotlight: WR Darnell Mooney

Mooney got off to a promising start in Chicago, but a move to the slot derailed his production. After signing with Atlanta ahead of the 2024 season, the Falcons moved him back outside, where he became a volatile WR3 for fantasy managers. Mooney posted seven games with at least 80 receiving yards and scored all five of his career-high touchdowns in those outings. However, he was held under 40 yards in six other games. His 2025 fantasy value hinges on quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who showed good accuracy on deep passes in limited action. If that continues, Mooney could be in for a breakout season — but if Penix falters, Mooney may settle into a backup fantasy role.

Best bet: Michael Penix Jr. — over 3,350.5 passing yards and over 18.5 passing touchdowns

While Michael Penix Jr.’s three-game sample isn’t enough to draw definitive conclusions, his performance in PFF’s stable quarterback metrics underscores his potential. He finished above the 90th percentile in six of seven key categories, including elite marks from a clean pocket (94.9 grade, 98th percentile) and on standard dropbacks (92.0 grade, 98th percentile).

The Falcons have surrounded him with talent. Bijan Robinson anchors a strong run game, and wideout Drake London gives Penix a reliable top target. PFF’s projections are bullish, placing Penix well above his betting lines. He’s one of just four quarterbacks with a projected yardage total over 300 yards above the market and leads all passers with a touchdown projection 3.83 scores higher than the line — the biggest differential for 2025.

Bottom line

Atlanta has the offensive firepower to contend for an NFC South title. For that to happen, Michael Penix Jr. must deliver over a full season, and the team’s young pass rushers will need to help shore up last year’s biggest weakness.