• Justin Fields is full of fantasy potential: An elite rushing quarterback like Fields has all the tools necessary to outperform his current ADP.
• Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears should look much different in 2025: With new weapons, an improved offensive line, and Ben Johnson running the show, Year 2 should be a great one for Williams.
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Estimated reading time: 13 minutes

The obvious choices to finish as the overall QB1 in fantasy football are already going inside the top five at their position in terms of ADP, but before those players became the obvious choices, they were drafted well outside of that range. This list will look at some candidates going outside the top-five quarterbacks in ADP and highlight what they need to do in 2025 to finish as the top players at their position.

These are darkhorse candidates after all, so the path to QB1 isn’t going to be easy, but by looking back at what the recipe for success was for those that have been there before, we can try to find the players that check a lot of similar boxes and have the best shot to make it.

• While the four highlighted past QB1s are all being drafted around the top-five at their positions, this wasn’t the case in their initial high-end fantasy finishes. Of course, this feels obvious because players need to prove it before fantasy managers feel good about investing in them, but it can also pay off to get ahead of the market.
• This was the case with Jayden Daniels, who made this list last year, as he was being drafted around the QB12 range, and while he didn’t finish as the QB1 overall, he cleared that ADP quite comfortably and is now being drafted as a top-three option at his position, which is realistically our more likely target for these types of lists.

• 2019’s Lamar Jackson is the clear outlier in terms of overall passing yards from a fantasy QB1, but he was also a significant outlier as a runner with over 1,200 yards on double-digit attempts per game.
• Meanwhile, 2024 Lamar Jackson was much more balanced in terms of his rushing fantasy production while also delivering elite passing totals.
• This path to success could be key for a lot of young, mobile quarterbacks who are still developing as passers, although 1,200 yards is still on the extreme end of things.
• Based on this data, the aim should be around 35 touchdown passes and 4,000 passing yards to reach QB1 status. Last season, along with Jackson, there were four additional quarterbacks to reach that mark (Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold) – all of whom finished as top-eight fantasy quarterbacks.
• Considering that these high-end passing totals are still rare, relying on rushing success could be crucial for these darkhorse options, leading to our next key criterion.

• Rushing upside has become a significant cheat code for fantasy production and a quarterback that comes out on the high end of rushing attempts per game has an even greater shot to reach that QB1 mark.
• Four of last year’s top-six fantasy quarterbacks were all leaders in rushing yards, rush attempts per game and rushing fantasy points per game.
• Elite passers like Mahomes don’t necessarily need that much in the way of rushing production to finish as QB1 when throwing for over 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, which a similar stat line for Joe Burrow (QB3) last year, but that is a very high bar to set for a potential darkhorse, so rushing upside becomes all the more crucial.
• Allen also set a very high bar in his rushing production in 2023 with 15 rushing touchdowns on the year, helping make up for the lowest passing touchdown total of the past seven seasons of QB1s.

• A few additional things stood out when looking at what allowed each of the past season’s quarterbacks to finish as the top option at their position, one of which was the team’s overall success rate, measured here by positive EPA per play rate. Leading a successful offense obviously puts each player in a position to score touchdowns, and another big part of that offense’s success comes from the team’s top receiving option.
• Each past QB1 had a top receiving option who earned a career receiving grade over 90.0 on their roster on the year of the QB1 season, so there should be at least one option on the team that is either capable of reaching that height or has done so previously.
• Each QB1 was also among the best in the league each season at avoiding sacks, ranking inside the top 10 in terms of pressure-to-sack conversion rate allowed. Keeping drives alive and avoiding pressure, potentially for scramble opportunities, has been key.

With all of this in mind, let’s look at this year’s darkhorse candidates going outside the top five in ADP who have a darkhorse shot to be the 2025 QB1.

• Sleeper ADP: QB17
• Underdog ADP: QB11
• ESPN ADP: QB14
• Consensus ADP: QB14

Anytime Fields is in a position to start, he’s delivered high-end fantasy production. This was the case last season across just six starts, where he ranked as the overall QB6 in fantasy over that stretch, and it was the case in his previous seasons with the Chicago Bears, where if he was healthy and starting, he often scored as at least a top-10 fantasy quarterback. With the expectation that Fields will take over as the Jets QB1 for all of 2025, top 10 should be considered his floor, and he has aspirations to push for that overall QB1 crown.

The area where Fields holds the biggest advantage over every quarterback going outside the top-five is his willingness to run the ball and deliver elite, often historic, fantasy totals with his rushing ability alone. Fields and Michael Vick are the only two quarterbacks to hold three of the 15 top all-time rushing performances in a game by a quarterback, putting him in very prestigious company. Last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers felt like a more reserved offense for Fields, as he ran just 5.9 times per game, which was three carries per game fewer than his previous season in Chicago (8.9) and down again from his 2022 overall QB7 season when he averaged 20.6 points per game and 9.4 runs per game (minus QB kneels). With no restraints expected in 2025, Fields should have much more control to run (pun intended) the offense that best suits him, which is almost certainly going to lead to high-end rushing production.

Fields is going to have a shot to be the overall QB1 (or close to it) by getting closer to at least being a league-average passer, as he’s often ranked 25th or lower in terms of PFF passing grade. Like we saw with 2019 Lamar Jackson, high-end passing isn’t completely necessary, but he will rely on outlier rushing totals, which Fields is capable of, but to help his odds, we’ll ideally see an increase in passing ability this season. Helping matters will be Year 4 Garrett Wilson, who has been on the cusp of joining the elite receivers in the league. If it all comes together, where Fields is better than expected and the Jets offense is able to run through Wilson while the running backs behind a solid offensive line, there’s a chance they can be an above-average offense in 2025 and help Fields get closer to checking all boxes for a QB1 season.

Justin Fields’ path to QB1 checklist:

MEDIUM SHOT: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

• Sleeper ADP: QB13
• Underdog ADP: QB13
• ESPN ADP: QB14
• Consensus ADP: QB13

After becoming the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Williams didn’t quite hit the ground running like some of his peers – Jayden Daniels, specifically – though he still holds that high-end potential to get there. Everything that the Bears did this offseason, between hiring Ben Johnson as head coach, greatly improving the offensive line and spending their first two picks in the NFL Draft on top receiving options, is going to make Williams’ life much easier in Year 2.

Williams isn’t the elite rusher like Fields, but he holds at least some potential in that regard, which he highlighted last season, ranking top-10 in runs per game (4.3) though adding just 3.0 fantasy points per game through his rushing alone. While that is an above-average mark, there’s still room for improvement, especially behind an excellent run-blocking offensive line, and if he can overcome one of the league’s worst pressure-to-sack conversion rates in the league last season (28.2%). As highlighted earlier, each of our past QB1 finishers had a top-10 mark in pressure-to-sack conversion rate, and Williams was far from that in 2024, so he must improve in that regard if he’s going to deliver on potentially elite fantasy upside in 2025.

The expectation for Williams to improve as a passer is also not an unrealistic, as he is surrounded by a plethora of top options to get the ball to now. Bringing in a highly-coveted offensive mind like Ben Johnson to serve as head coach should be the key to unlocking Williams’ full potential as soon as 2025. Williams came out of college with a 91.4 career passing grade (88th percentile since 2017), and while he didn’t immediately deliver on that potential as a rookie, he’ll have more than enough opportunity to get there this year.

Caleb Williams‘ path to QB1 checklist:

• Sleeper ADP: QB16
• Underdog ADP: QB20
• ESPN ADP: QB19
• Consensus ADP: QB18

Following his rookie season, Stroud’s fantasy value skyrocketed to the point where he was being drafted as a top-five player at his position the following year, so maybe it shouldn’t take too much convincing that Stroud has that potential heading into 2025, but a disappointing Year 2 has cast some doubt. Stroud not only failed to improve upon his rookie year, but there were clear struggles in need of improvement to prove that 2024 was just a sophomore slump.

One of the obvious areas of improvement comes from Stroud’s inability to avoid sacks last season, ranking second behind only Caleb Williams (68) in sacks taken (52) with a 22.1% pressure-to-sack conversion rate. Behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines heading into this season, that is going to be a very difficult number to dramatically bring down, but it isn’t impossible. Stroud was slightly better in this regard during his rookie season, taking 14 fewer sacks on the year (38), and we’ll likely have to see that number come down even more in Year 3 for Stroud to deliver on his QB1 potential.

Having an elite wide receiver like Nico Collins for an entire season will play a significant role in Stroud’s passing numbers reaching that 4,500-plus range for the first time in his regular-season career, while adding the high-end touchdown potential as well. Stroud did get some additional help in terms of weapons this season with the team drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and adding Christian Kirk via free agency. If Stroud and his weapons can overcome the poor pass-blocking, there’s room for this team to be one of the better ones in the league. This should allow Stroud to get back to the top-five fantasy potential that drafters believed in during the 2024 offseason.

C.J. Stroud‘s path to QB1 checklist: