Rams were never “a drive away” from beating Eagles in playoffs

It’s time to set the record straight about Rams’ season-ending playoff loss

We’ve heard all offseason from fans and pundits alike that the Los Angeles Rams were simply “a drive away” from taking down the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

I wouldn’t ordinarily look so far back in the rearview mirror, especially with training camp underway; however, this single game is being incorrectly used as a barometer for predicting LA’s success in 2025. Instead of wiping the slate clean and rolling the ball back up the hill, many are gauging the Rams’ incremental improvements and using this lone drive as the measuring stick.

It’s preposterous.

Everyone you know is getting this wrong

Why the game wasn’t as close as you remember

According to ESPN Analytics’ measure of win probability, the Eagles were firmly in the driver’s seat for the entire game. The Rams never reached 50% likelihood.

A few important shifts within this matchup:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401671937/rams-eagles

• Rams had their best odds late into the third quarter (48.5%) before a Kyren Williams fumble that was returned to the LA 10-yard line (22.1% thereafter).
• With roughly five minutes left in the fourth quarter down 15-22, the Rams brough out Ethan Evans to punt on fourth-and-ten from their own 30-yard line after a three-and-out. Matthew Stafford was sacked on first down. After the punt, Philly had a 90.6% win probability.
• Saquon Barkley ripped off a 78-yard rushing touchdown on the very next play to make it a 15-28 contest. The Eagles’ probability of victory shifted to 97.7%.
• Stafford connects with Colby Parkinson on a short touchdown. Rams stop Barkley on the following drive on third-and-19. Philly still 80.9% likely to win the game.
• Rams drive to the Eagles’ 21-yard line, pushing LA to around 46% chance of victory.
• Same drive on third-and-two, Jalen Carter sacks Stafford. Eagles now at 86.5% probability to win.

ESPN’s analytics take into account that—even if the Rams scored a touchdown on their final offensive possession—the Eagles would only need a field goal to steal away victory. Sure, the Rams defense had the Eagle’s number for most of the second half; however, you’d take those odds in the postseason when the margins are ever-slim.

To pretend the Rams were only a drive away fails to acknowledge that Philadelphia dominated in terms of win probability for most of this game.

Blame where blame is due

The snowy conditions were tough, certainly. However, all offseason Stafford has been universally praised for his playoff effort in Philadelphia. Advanced metrics simply do not support this take.

The divisional round was easily one of Stafford’s worst performances over the 2024 season. By Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive grading only, this was tied for the veteran’s fifth-worst outing of the year.

Stafford’s four turnover-worthy plays marked his season-high total, tied with Week 9 at the Seattle Seahawks. The box score is favorable in this regard as Stafford threw zero interceptions and only lost a single fumble. It could have been far worse, and there were multiple near interceptions dropped by Eagles defenders.

He took sacks on 27.8% of pressures, which was his fourth-highest ratio on the year. This is despite a time-to-throw consistent with his season average of 2.62 seconds and likely because of over aggression. He average depth of target was 11 yards—the second highest total for any game in 2024.

But there is plenty of blame to go around on offense and on the turnover front.

Kyren Williams was on the wrong side of one of the most pivotal plays in the entire game—his aforementioned fumble. This mistake came when the stakes were at their highest, even if most believe the fourth quarter drive was the Rams’ best chance at victory. If Williams doesn’t fumble, Los Angeles would keep the ball around midfield with their first real chance of competing in this game. Instead, the Eagles returned Williams’ fumble inside the red zone and didn’t look back—against popular belief.

Refreshing expectations for 2025

While the Rams were frustratingly close to another Super Bowl run last season, we must wipe our minds clean and recalibrate expectations for 2025.

Every team in the NFL is currently 0-0. There will be surprise entrants into the postseason tournament, and franchises we expect to be in the playoffs will likely fall short. This is as close to certainty as it gets in the NFL and happens on an annual basis.

Yes, the Rams made incremental improvements over the offseason. Replacing Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams should give LA a more formidable threat on the perimeter in the passing game. Signing Poona Ford will go a long ways in shoring up the run defense that Saquon Barkley took advantage of over and over.

But you can’t spend the offseason fixing last year’s problems. You must be honest about where you are and soberly offer ideas for improvements. It feels like the Rams are telling themselves they were “just a drive away”.

2025 will bring new challenges and they are likely to be different from the Achilles heels that sent LA packing a year ago.

Are the Rams ready?