• Kellen Moore’s offense could benefit Chris Olave in 2025: Moore has consistently emphasized slot receivers in his offenses, a trend that has translated to strong fantasy production. With Olave expected to see increased usage in the slot for the Saints this season, he could be poised for a breakout year under Moore’s playcalling.
• Jordan Mason shines when given opportunities. Whether serving as the 49ers’ primary starter or getting just a handful of touches, Mason has consistently delivered big plays throughout his three-year career.
• Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

Estimated reading time: 12 minutes

It’s exceptionally rare for a player to be a true “must-draft,” someone who makes sense for your roster no matter your draft strategy or team build. Last year, Rashee Rice fit that mold. Despite being drafted as late as Round 6 on some platforms, he emerged as the WR2 over the first three weeks before his injury.

While no player offers that kind of clear-cut value this early in the offseason, the three names below are ones I’m consistently drafting — even if it means reaching slightly ahead of ADP. They’re the kind of players I’m comfortable selecting regardless of how my roster is shaping up.

Average draft position (ADP) reflects a consensus of ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo! rankings for 12-team redraft leagues.

Last updated: Monday, July 28

WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 7.06)

Chris Olave was selected 11th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft by a Saints team featuring Michael Thomas returning from injury and newly signed Jarvis Landry. He earned a starting role by Week 2, and with Thomas sidelined by Week 4 and Landry missing much of the season, he quickly became the team’s top receiving option. The Ohio State product finished his rookie year with 1,042 receiving yards, more than double that of the Saints’ next leading receiver, despite missing two games. He put up those numbers catching passes primarily from Andy Dalton.

In 2023, Olave’s production remained remarkably consistent despite a quarterback switch to Derek Carr. While he ran more routes per game, a dip in target rate slightly reduced his efficiency. Still, the added volume led to more targets, receptions, receiving yards, one additional touchdown and a jump to 19th at the position in fantasy points per game. He missed one game with an ankle injury and suffered the third concussion of his career, but he returned the following week.

The Saints opened the 2024 season with dominant wins, outscoring their opponents 91-29 over the first two games. Olave played more of a decoy role in Week 1, as five different players scored touchdowns. In Week 2, he caught four passes for 81 yards, but limited playing time and routes — due to the blowout — capped his production.

Olave was solid over the next three games, totaling 16 receptions for 183 yards and a touchdown. However, his season was derailed by injuries. He suffered a concussion just two snaps into Week 6, missed Week 7 and then returned in Week 8 with an impressive eight catches for 107 yards. Unfortunately, he sustained another concussion after just eight snaps later that season, prompting the Saints to shut him down for the year.

Olave’s 2024 per-game stats need context. He exited early due to concussions in two of his eight games and played limited snaps in two others because of blowouts. That leaves just four full, competitive games in which he averaged 14.7 PPR points per game, a career-best pace.

The primary concern as we advance is his health. Another concussion would be the sixth documented of his career, potentially posing a serious risk to his availability or career.

That said, Olave has been elite on a per-route basis. His 25.4% target rate over the past three seasons ranks eighth among all wide receivers, and his 2.21 yards per route run ranks ninth.

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new head coach, which could significantly reshape the passing game. Moore’s offenses have consistently funneled targets to wide receivers — even when he’s had elite pass-catching backs, which bodes well for the Saints’ receivers and could signal a reduced role for Alvin Kamara in the passing game.

Over the last three seasons, Moore’s primary slot receiver has averaged between 15.3 and 21.5 PPR points per game. Meanwhile, his primary outside receivers in three-receiver sets have generally struggled to provide consistent fantasy value, with the exception of A.J. Brown in 2024. Rashid Shaheed is a better second option than Moore had with the Chargers or Cowboys, so there’s hope both he and Chris Olave can thrive. The key question is: Who will play in the slot?

Olave and Shaheed are similarly built — smaller, faster receivers than Moore typically features, outside of DeVonta Smith last season. Both have experience in the slot, but the efficiency metrics suggest a direction. Shaheed has averaged 2.27 yards per route run out wide, compared to 1.49 in the slot. Olave, meanwhile, has averaged 2.23 yards per route in the slot versus 2.16 out wide — potentially making him the favorite for slot duties.

Chris Olave has the talent to finish as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver, and the arrival of head coach Kellen Moore could elevate his production. However, concerns remain. The Saints’ quarterback situation is far from ideal, and Olave’s concussion history raises durability questions, potentially increasing his risk for a season-ending injury more than most players.

RB Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 11.03)

Jordan Mason entered the league as an undrafted rookie in 2022, signing with the San Francisco 49ers. Midway through his rookie season, the 49ers overhauled their backfield by trading for Christian McCaffrey and elevating Mason to the primary backup role. He made the most of his limited opportunities, earning a 90.6 PFF rushing grade and averaging 6.0 yards per carry.

In 2023, Mason slid to third on the depth chart with Elijah Mitchell’s return. However, when Mitchell missed time, Mason again stepped in as the primary backup and performed at a high level, much like he did in his rookie year. Heading into 2024, there was speculation that Mason could overtake Mitchell as McCaffrey’s primary backup, a scenario that played out after Mitchell suffered a season-ending injury. With McCaffrey nursing an Achilles sprain to start the year, Mason briefly opened the season as the 49ers’ lead back.

He capitalized on the opportunity, ranking as a top-six fantasy running back through the first five weeks of the season. While Mason fumbled three times and saw some regression in efficiency with a larger workload, he remained explosive, breaking off long runs at an elite rate and rushing for at least 70 yards in six of his first seven games. He also averaged 4.1 or more yards per carry in each of those outings. As a receiver, Mason remained limited, catching just one or two passes per game.

Injuries derailed the second half of his season. He sustained a shoulder injury in Week 6 and aggravated it the following week. McCaffrey returned during that stretch, pushing Mason back into a reserve role. It’s important to note that many of Mason’s per-game stats from 2024 include games where he was not the starter. When McCaffrey suffered a season-ending injury in Week 13, Mason stepped in with 13 carries for 78 yards, only to suffer a season-ending high-ankle sprain of his own shortly after.

Mason was traded to the Minnesota Vikings this offseason, giving him a chance to escape Christian McCaffrey’s shadow and potentially earn more playing time. Minnesota’s lead back last season was Aaron Jones Sr., a veteran who has spent most of his career in a two-back committee. Jones, now 30, has dealt with a string of injuries in recent years — including hamstring, MCL, hip, rib, and quad issues — and may no longer be able to shoulder a full workload.

Mason has primarily operated as an early-down back in his NFL career, while Jones offers a more well-rounded skill set. Jones posted 408 receiving yards in 2024, his highest mark since 2019, and has consistently graded well as a runner. However, signs of decline have surfaced, with his rushing efficiency slipping toward average in recent seasons. A likely backfield split would see Mason handling early-down work, with Jones playing a significant role in passing situations.

If Jones were to miss time, Mason could step into a featured role similar to his five-game stretch as the 49ers’ starter. Fullback C.J. Ham has taken on third-down pass protection duties in recent years and would likely continue to do so, limiting Mason’s role on passing downs. Ty Chandler would serve as the backup, but Mason would likely receive as much volume as the Vikings believe he can handle.

The Vikings had a relatively average offensive line in 2024, but the unit could take a notable step forward this season, depending on how quickly it develops chemistry. Star left tackle Christian Darrisaw, the team’s best run blocker, missed more than half of last season. Minnesota also addressed its interior issues by signing Will Fries and drafting Donovan Jackson in the first round. While it’s difficult to predict how a rookie lineman will perform, Jackson is expected to be an upgrade at left guard.

That said, this could still represent a slight downgrade for Jordan Mason. During his time with the 49ers, he consistently ran behind a top-10 offensive line.

The snap distribution between Mason and Aaron Jones Sr. remains uncertain. Still, there’s a realistic path for Mason to emerge as the more valuable fantasy option, even if both stay healthy. If Jones continues to struggle with injuries, Mason is likely to step in as a reliable fantasy starter.

TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 11.05)

Dalton Kincaid entered the NFL as a 2023 first-round pick for the Buffalo Bills, joining a roster headlined by Stefon Diggs but lacking a clear No. 2 target. While the team had recently extended tight end Dawson Knox on a four-year, $52 million deal, it initially appeared that Buffalo would shift to a 12-personnel base offense. In Week 1, both tight ends played more than 79% of the offensive snaps, but that was the only game of the season in which both saw such high usage.

Kincaid was quiet through his first five games, failing to top 45 receiving yards or score a touchdown, and he missed Week 6. A Week 7 injury to Knox opened the door for an increased role, and Kincaid took advantage, averaging 14.1 PPR points per game from Weeks 7 to 12. However, his usage dropped after the Week 13 bye and Knox’s return, and Kincaid managed just six catches for 28 yards over the next three games. He rebounded with two 80-plus-yard performances to close the regular season and added eight catches for 104 yards and a touchdown across two playoff games.

Kincaid opened the 2024 season as the starter, playing 83.9% of offensive snaps in Week 1 but recording just one catch for 11 yards. His snap rate fluctuated the rest of the year, peaking at 56.7% over the regular season and dipping to 44.3% in the playoffs. While he appeared healthy early on, he landed on the injury report starting in mid-October with collarbone and knee injuries, the latter of which sidelined him for three games late in the year.

He averaged just 7.8 PPR points per game in 2024, ranking 20th among tight ends, and finished outside the top 18 in more than half of his games. His routes per game dropped by seven compared to his rookie year. Despite a strong target rate, an improved yards per route run average and a better PFF receiving grade, Kincaid’s overall production suffered due to limited opportunities.

His knee injury has required extensive offseason rehab, but is expected to heal fully. As noted by fantasy analyst Matthew Berry, injuries played a significant role in Kincaid’s disappointing sophomore campaign.

On the bright side, if injuries were the primary reason for Dalton Kincaid’s down year in 2024, there’s still a realistic path for him to lead the Bills in targets. Buffalo is returning Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel and added Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore in free agency. While each receiver brings a different skill set, none appear likely to block Kincaid from becoming the top option if he’s at full strength.

Kincaid will once again be catching passes from Josh Allen — the league’s reigning MVP — which should be a positive. However, Kincaid saw the third-most uncatchable targets among tight ends in 2024 (25), despite far fewer opportunities than those ahead of him: Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. His 34% uncatchable target rate was the second highest among tight ends with at least 25 targets. Knox ranked third, suggesting this was more of a Josh Allen issue than a Kincaid one.

Injuries may have affected Kincaid’s route-running precision, leading to miscommunications with Allen. Still, many of the issues were simply about ball placement. Ideally, that’s something that can be corrected with more chemistry and reps in training camp.

If we ignore Kincaid’s reduced route volume and simply apply a league-average uncatchable pass rate, his per-game average would have risen to 10 PPR points, good for a TE12 finish.

Kincaid faces several hurdles heading into 2025, including uncertain playing time, recent injuries and shaky chemistry with Josh Allen. However, if last season’s struggles were primarily injury-related, there’s still plenty of upside. A fully healthy Kincaid has the talent and opportunity to break out and deliver the best season of his career.