Matthew Stafford’s new contract already aging poorly

Matthew Stafford to open training camp on sidelines. Should Rams have moved on this offseason?

There was a point this offseason where Matthew Stafford’s return to the Los Angeles Rams was anything but certain. The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders were courting the quarterback and were reportedly willing to pay him top billing and send draft capital to the Rams.

Instead, Sean McVay took his signal caller behind closed doors and negotiated a deal that paid him less money than otherwise could have gained from the Giants or Raiders. Stafford emerged with a new two-year contract extension worth $84M. He has $40M of guarantees for 2025 with another due in 2026 if he’s on the roster at the start of the new league year.

But this new deal is already aging poorly for Los Angeles. The calendar hasn’t even flipped to August.

Stafford is managing back soreness and will start training camp on the sidelines. While McVay maintains that he has confidence in his quarterback, we’ve seen the coach paint himself into corners with such comments before.

2022 may seem like a long time ago, but Stafford entered camp with concerns surrounding his elbow. He didn’t look like himself to start the regular season, and he was soon shutdown for the year with head and back injuries.

There’s always risk when you tie yourself to a quarterback in his late 30’s. This situation requires nuance in order to understand LA’s exposure.

It’s better to move on a year too early

Yes, the Rams could release Stafford early next spring if they want to wipe their hands clean of his commitments. The unfortunate truth is that this guaranteed money likely limits their ability to find the quarterback a new home via trade, which was certainly on the table this past offseason. Who would trade for an older veteran with injury concerns after watching the likes of Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins flame out in recent years? You must strike while the iron is hot.

Is there a world where the Rams instead traded Stafford to either New York or Las Vegas and don’t end up with two first round picks in 2026 as they have now? Sure. It was also possible they acquired an early second round pick plus other mid-round selections for Stafford in addition to making their draft day trade with the Atlanta Falcons. In theory they could be sitting on a war chest of picks, which significantly lowers the difficulty of acquiring a new franchise quarterback next offseason.

We can only analyze what we know. The Rams must compete in order for 2025 to be a success, and this is coupled with their short-term signing of Davante Adams.

You can’t afford 2022-like outcomes when you push all your chips into the middle. It’s eerie to be on this path already.

Why we can’t believe Sean McVay

Remember when McVay told us to not worry about Todd Gurley’s rapidly deteriorating knee fresh off his market-flipping contract? At Turf Show Times we referred to this as the Patella Novella.

McVay used to following words to describe Stafford’s 2022 elbow injury:

• “A little soreness”
• “No hesitation”

The veteran went on to play nine games. He completed 68% of his passes and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt versus his usual figure with the Rams of 7.3-8.1 yards. He finished with 10 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a passer rating of just 87.4.

The truth is that—if this was nothing to worry about—Stafford would be on the field at training camp. He participated heavily the last two preseasons, which uncoincidentally were two of his better years in Los Angeles.

If we are going to knock someone like Aaron Rodgers for missing offseason team workouts, then we should also ding Stafford for sitting out of important reps. The Rams are acclimating newcomers Davante Adams and Terrance Ferguson and they’d benefit from time with their starting quarterback.

We have ample reason not to believe McVay’s comments early in camp. I’ll stop being worried when I see this offense perform at a high level. Instead, we’ve watched the Rams stumble out of the gate the last two seasons—although to their credit they turned the ship around late to make the playoffs.

You can’t fool me.