• Andrew Van Ginkel is this year’s dragon that IDP drafters seem to be chasing: After an IDP MVP-like season in 2024, there are too many red flags in Van Ginkel’s profile to expect anything close to that return again.
• Frankie Luvu and Quincy Williams are easily the most overvalued linebackers in IDP right now: Two of the worst tacklers at the position, each finished outside the top 15 in IDP scoring last season, are being drafted as top-10 players at their position right now.
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

After highlighting some favorite values in IDP FastDraft D-Up drafts yesterday, it’s only natural that we cover some players being overvalued in that format who should be avoided at cost. Avoiding these potential ADP traps that other drafters are falling into can help IDP managers separate themselves from the pack in building a championship-quality roster.

• Fast Draft D-Up ADP: DL11
• My rank: DL20

The temptation to chase fantasy points from last season is undeniable for the majority of fantasy drafters, and the risk in doing so for IDP is often much greater than on the offensive side of the ball, as year-to-year stability in fantasy points is much lower for defensive players (highlighted here). Van Ginkel being drafted as the DL11 in the D-Up format is the kind of trap we want to avoid in IDP, as he exhibits many of the red flags we’re looking for in identifying potential regression candidates. And while drafters are at least not considering him a top-five pick where he finished last season, even expecting a top-12 return for Van Ginkel in 2025 is a risky investment unlikely to pay off.

As good of an NFL player as Van Ginkel may be, he was one of the league’s biggest overachievers last season, finishing well above his expected sack totals last year while ranking 98th percentile in sacks versus expected despite placing in the 66th percentile in expected sacks and 71st at his position in pass-rush grade. Those are the red flags to look out for when evaluating potential regression in the sack column. Van Ginkel also delivered two defensive touchdowns last season, which is an incredibly unstable statistic that boosts his overall IDP production from last year. Van Ginkel is still a strong tackler and should get decent playing time, but with his big plays likely to take a significant hit, that moves him well out of DL1 range for 2025 and is not worth that current ADP.

• Fast Draft D-Up ADP: DL18
• My rank: DL31

DL18 for Bonitto isn’t such an egregious value that IDP managers should feel afraid to take him in this range, but it’s still a fair bit higher than his end-of-season value is likely to finish even after a breakout 2024 season. Bonitto delivered a high 13 sacks and found the end zone twice on the year. As was the case with Van Ginkel, Bonitto is also at risk of negative regression both in the sack column and, of course, the touchdown total, which, for a player who ranked as ED22 in points per game last year, makes his DL18 ADP a concerning one and likely out of reach.

Bonitto is a better pass-rusher than Van Ginkel, and he plays enough that his sack totals might not take as big of a hit, but where Bonitto’s IDP potential is stunted even more comes from his tackling ability. Bonitto finished just seventh percentile at his positive in tackles versus expected, which puts the concern for him as a much more boom-bust IDP option on a weekly basis. This can be fine for best ball formats, but when we expect regression in the “boom” plays, he becomes a lot less appealing for all formats, putting him closer to the DL3 range, where he’s currently ranked.

• Fast Draft D-Up ADP: LB6
• My rank: LB25

At LB6, Luvu stands out as maybe the most overvalued IDP linebacker of 2025 right now, coming off a season where he played all 16 games during the fantasy season, delivered a position-leading eight total sacks, and finished as the LB16 overall and LB27 in points per game. For Luvu, his role in Dan Quinn’s defense makes him the biggest boom-bust investment at the linebacker position, as he spends more snaps on the defensive line and rushing the passer than any player at the position. While that is great for his sack totals, his tackle potential takes a massive hit and creates a significantly lower output than his full-time peers at the position, as highlighted by his standing in tackles versus expected, ranking second percentile in that regard – an area he has consistently struggled to produce.

With Luvu landing eight sacks last season, he’s now being drafted as if he’s going to improve on that number, which just isn’t typically how it works out for all pass rushers, even the very good ones. Odds are that eight is the ceiling for Luvu, and so far that has been a career-high. And for drafters taking him this high, it’s more than likely going to be a major misstep once those sack numbers start to come back down to earth, even if he maintains that same role. There’s way too much volatility in Luvu’s production and potential to target him this early in drafts, and IDP managers should absolutely avoid this trap.

• Fast Draft D-Up ADP: LB7
• My rank: LB31

Being drafted right after Luvu, for some reason, is Williams, who is arguably a worse tackler than Luvu after finishing with the second-worst mark in the league in tackles versus expected. This is now the second straight season where Williams has finished in the bottom second percentile in tackles versus expected. He’s an incredibly inefficient tackler who we should not put top-10 value on heading into 2025. 

There is, and has been, way too much meat left on the bone by Williams, and that couldn’t be more clear than last season when he played the second-most snaps at the position (1,136), but finished as just the LB25 and LB39 in points per game. For context, seven of the 12 linebacker leaders in defensive snaps finished as top-12 IDP linebackers. The five exceptions are Williams, Luvu, Patrick Queen, Demario Davis, and Tremaine Edmunds – with all having a history of being poor performers in the tackles versus expected metric, and were again last season. While opportunity is the greatest contributor to IDP production for our linebackers, identifying even the full-time players who are that inefficient can keep us from overvaluing them each season, and Williams is a clear case of a player being overvalued and should be avoided at that cost.

• Fast Draft D-Up ADP: DB7

I didn’t expect to have to include Surtain on this list, but understandably, there are a lot of new fantasy gamers trying IDP for the first time via this easy-to-draft format, and taking the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is going to feel like a logical choice to anyone new to IDP. Unfortunately, because of how good Surtain is as a cornerback, that is what hurts his IDP potential. The majority of IDP production comes from tackles, and for an outside cornerback like Surtain, he’s often going to have to get targeted at a high rate to increase his opportunities for tackles. Being as good as he is, Surtain is not the player that opposing offenses are looking to pick on in the secondary, so that is naturally going to lower his opportunities for tackles, which is the case with all of the league’s best players at the cornerback position.

Surtain finished as the CB49 across 15 games last season, even with an above-average big-play rate. As highlighted in the graphic above, Surtain’s tackles versus expected ranked dead last at the position, with the large majority of that loss coming on passing downs. Considering the player, there’s no reason to expect a drastic change in Surtain’s outlook for 2025, which makes DB7 ADP a disastrous value to make sure that all IDP drafters avoid going forward, as the IDP value isn’t anywhere close to that evaluation.