Secondary Concerns Are Primary (For Me)

First and foremost, I hope everyone in the DN family is having a great summer. It’s that time of the year. The Dead Zone: OTAs in the rearview and the news (mainly) grinds to a halt. Training camp is two weeks away, so the mind tends to wander. Yeah, it’s a period I’m not fond of…at all. When your fandom stretches back to the days when cassettes and VHS tapes were the primary modes of music and movie consumption, respectively, mid-to-late July is when a pinch of excitement meets 10 cups of apprehension. It’s a horrible recipe. The layers of scar tissue created by a seemingly endless string of heartbreak start to itch and aggravate.

What could derail us this year?

What form will the suffering take this time?

I’ve made this point before. Historically, the Vikings rarely bottom out. We have the 4th highest winning percentage in the Super Bowl era. Of course, every other team in the Top 10 has at least 2 Super Bowl victories. That’s the problem. J.J. McCarthy will be as advertised. I’d argue even better. I’m all in. I’d be shocked if we weren’t right there for a Wild Card spot or better come December. The problem is what could prevent us from finally lifting the Lombardi Trophy…again?

The answer is the secondary.

Let me say this at the outset: I think we’ll be fine. I’m optimistic Brian Flores will be able to get the most out of the unit as currently constructed. However, there are questions, and I believe Vikings fans are somewhat complacent here. Let’s drill down on this a bit.

First, there’s a perilous overreliance on potential over precedent. Mekhi Blackmon’s 71.8 coverage grade landed him a spot on the Pro Football Focus (PFF) All-Breakout Team last summer. That’s promising. There’s also been good news on the injury front, as he appears to be progressing nicely toward a full recovery. Optimism is warranted. Then again, I remember being enthusiastic about the continued growth and development of Mike Hughes, Cam Dantzler, Akayleb Evans, and Andrew Booth Jr., too. All but

Likewise, extrapolation is the name of the game with free agent addition Isaiah Rodgers, where it’s expected that his 76.0 PFF grade in limited snaps (329) will translate to a larger role. Again, potential. The same goes for safety Theo Jackson, who was a priority signing early in free agency with the futures of Harrison Smith and Cam Bynum uncertain. Of course, the former is back to the relief of Vikings fans everywhere. Unfortunately, so too are the fears about Father Time, who has the polar opposite winning percentage as the Vikings do in Super Bowls. I’m firmly in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” camp with Jeff Okudah. The talent has never been in doubt; if anyone can unlock it, it’s Flores. But the history is the history (so far). I’ve always liked Jay Ward and Dwight McGlothern, but I’d have to see a lot

Second, the Vikings benefited greatly from leading the NFL in interceptions (24) last year – an increase of 13 over 2023. Turnovers are weird. They’re coached and stressed repeatedly but are often a product of fortuitous circumstances that can’t be replicated year-to-year. They’re the ultimate deodorant, often masking issues underneath the surface. There was some of this last year. According to Next Gen Stats, the Vikings had the 4th-worst average target separation in the NFL at 3.8 yards, while 45% of red zone plays occurred in the 4th quarter. Some of this may be attributed to age-related realities, as Harrison Smith (35), Stephon Gilmore (34), and Shaquill Griffin (29) saw considerable snaps. We were also 28th in passing yards allowed, but better (12th) in touchdowns given up. The hope is that getting younger (Blackmon is 26, Rodgers is 27) will address these issues.

There is a trade-off, however. One must also acknowledge the experience gap; the things you cannot quantify on a stat sheet. You trust veterans like Gilmore and Griffin to be where they’re supposed to be and to execute coverage responsibilities with precision. This is of paramount importance when dealing with the complexities and nuances of the scheme Flores runs. Yeah, we’ll need this to be a net-positive for the new guys.

There will no doubt be an improvement in the Vikings’ pass rush. This, in turn, should welcome positive impacts across the board in the secondary’s performance-related metrics. Jonathan Greenard (28) and Andrew Van Ginkel (just turned 30) are in their primes and comprise one of the premier pass-rushing duos in the entire NFL. Dallas Turner in Year 2 is expected to take important next steps forward. Indeed, Flores spoke positively about what he saw in terms of growth during OTAs.

The real boost, of course, will be on the inside. The additions of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave are expected to address a critical vulnerability: interior pressure rate. According to PFF, the highest pass-rush grade by a Vikings interior lineman last year was Harrison Phillips at 60.0. The most pressures came from Jerry Tillery with 17. For context, in 2023, Hargrave recorded an 86.5 pass rush grade and 64 pressures alone. Allen is a 2-time Pro Bowler with 42 career sacks and 118 QB hits in 109 career games. Jonathan Bullard and Tillery combined have 18.5 sacks and 65 QB hits in 212 games. If we can stay healthy, this will be a tremendous asset to a younger secondary. This will be critical in the early part of the season as chemistry within Flores’s system is being developed and solidified.

I was fairly certain KAM would have brought in some veteran insurance, but, alas, those hopes may be fading. Jalen Ramsey is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. Jaire Alexander is a Baltimore Raven (good). I pounded the table in support of bringing Shaquill Griffin back. It made a ton of sense, as he led the Vikings’ secondary in passer rating against (75.8) last year. He’s now back with the Seattle Seahawks on a 1-year, $3 million deal ($4 million with incentives). The newest rumor is that the Vikings may be in the running for former Buffalo Bills starter Rasul Douglas. I’ve also seen us linked to a trade for 25-year-old Cleveland Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II. We shall see.

Again, I believe everything will be okay. If KAM, KOC, and Flores feel like they’ve got all they need, then dammit so do I. Yes, we’re overly reliant on potential being fulfilled (particularly at cornerback) and limited time missed due to injury. But it is what it is. If any team is due for the best-case scenario to unfold, it’s the Minnesota Vikings. We’ve got 64 years’ worth of heartbreak to cash in at some point. That being said, if this season were to end in disappointing fashion, similar to last season’s debacle against the L.A. Rams, the odds-on favorite for the primary culprit will not be the offensive line, but rather the secondary.

Let’s hope for the best, shall we?