- A rookie season to remember: Verse’s 77 regular-season pressures trail only Nick Bosa’s 80 for the most by any rookie in the PFF era.
- Verse’s pass-rush metrics point to more sack production: Double-digit sacks will likely be Verse’s floor in the near future, so take the over on his 7.25-sack line.
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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
When it comes to season-long NFL prop bets, most fans are looking at the offensive side of the ball. Sack totals are one of the more overlooked props, but PFF’s pass-rushing metrics give us a unique insight and edge when attacking these props.
Each season, a handful of player sack props stand out, whether their number is too high (and betting the under is a good call) or too low (betting the over). This year, it’s Rams edge Jared Verse, who is currently slotted at an over/under line of 7.25 sacks on PrizePicks.
Verse recorded 4.5 sacks as a rookie last season, tied for 95th in the NFL. With that said, there are reasons to believe that number will be significantly higher in 2025. Here are some things to consider and why it’s worth taking a flier on this prop this season.
Betting Sack Props: What to consider
It is important to avoid getting caught up in the final box-score stats when betting sack props. A player sitting at or near the top of the league in sacks doesn’t necessarily mean they were the best (or even a great) pass rusher that year.
In simple terms, sack totals, just like other stats in football, can be misleading. The “red flag” is when a defender has a high sack total but a low pressure-to-sack ratio. Consistently winning reps and getting to the quarterback (pressure) is a far better indicator of a great pass rusher than racking up sacks, which often comes down to luck rather than skill. Think about quarterbacks scrambling out of bounds for zero-yard gains or sliding behind the line of scrimmage on designed passes — in these cases, the closest defender gets credit for the “sack.”
On the other hand, some players generate pressure at a high rate but don’t rank near the top in sacks. These trends tend to normalize: Eventually, generating pressures results in sacks, just like the inability to generate pressure ultimately leads to lower sack numbers.
Here are some notable examples in recent years:
2021: The Bears’ Robert Quinn finished second in the NFL with 18.5 sacks on 47 pressures for the season, an incredibly eye-popping pressure-to-sack ratio. Maxx Crosby led the league with 101 pressures but managed only eight sacks.
When 2022’s sack props came out, Quinn was set at 10.25 and Crosby at 9.75. That year, Quinn finished the season with one sack (in 13 games) and Crosby tallied 12.5. These were two props that were worth targeting when taking a deeper dive into the metrics.
2022: The Dolphins’ Jaelan Phillips finished the season with seven sacks, but his elite 90.1 PFF pass-rushing grade ranked fifth among edge defenders and his 77 pressures were the seventh most.
In 2023, his over/under sack prop was 8.75, something I highlighted in an article that explored reasons to bet on the over. Phillips got off to a slow start that season (0.5 sacks through his first three games) but soon heated up, recording a sack in five straight games (six total) before suffering a season-ending torn Achilles in Week 12. The bet didn’t hit because of the injury, but that is always a risk. Looking back, it was still a good read on the bet and one I would make again under similar circumstances.
2023: The Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors after ranking among the top 25 edge defenders in PFF pass-rush grade (77.3), pressures (59) and win rate (16.3%). It was clear Anderson was getting better as the season went on, as seven of his eight sacks (including the playoffs) came after Week 8.
In 2024, Anderson’s sack prop was 8.25, which was an enticing number when considering his strong second half of 2023 and overall metrics from his rookie season. The Texans also signed Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter, one of the league’s most established pass rushers and a player who would command a lot of attention opposite Anderson, freeing up the young star for more favorable one-on-one opportunities. Anderson finished the year with 11 sacks despite missing three games.
Why bet over 7.25 sacks for Verse in 2025?
Verse was not only the best rookie defensive lineman in the NFL last season, but one of the best in the league, period. He established himself as one of the premier pass rushers, finishing fourth in the league in pressures (77) and sixth in pass-rush win rate (19.6%). The 77 pressures trail only Nick Bosa’s 80 for the most by any rookie in a regular season in the PFF era (since 2006).
Verse generated at least three pressures in 15 of 16 games for the season, excluding Week 18, when he played just 11 snaps (still produced two pressures). He continued his strong play into the postseason, recording 12 pressures and two sacks across the Rams’ two playoff games. This showed consistency week to week, rather than a couple of blow-up spots that we see from players at times, which is less predictable moving forward.
Four other edge defenders recorded at least 70 pressures last season: Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, Jonathan Greenard and Micah Parsons. All four notched at least 12 sacks for the year, which makes Verse’s 4.5 an outlier, given how much pressure he was generating on a regular basis.
Win rate is another great indicator of how well a pass rusher is performing from rep to rep. Including the playoffs, Verse’s 19.7% win rate for a single season has been topped by only 10 edge defenders over the past five years.
Highest Pass-Rush Win Rates Among Edge Defenders in 2024
PFF pass-rush grade on true pass sets was yet another category in which Verse was elite. His 90.6 mark tied for sixth best among edge defenders with T.J. Watt. The deeper you dive into Verse’s pass-rushing profile last year, the more reasons there are to love his outlook for 2025 and beyond.
The 24-year-old has already received high praise from his fellow competitors. Recently retired Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead said, “I’m OK with never seeing that young man again in my life. … He will be a Defensive Player of the Year one of these days. Mark my words.”
When Verse reaches his full potential, double-digit sack numbers will likely be his floor. Based on what we saw in his rookie season, there’s every reason to believe that could begin in 2025.
