The QB pipeline is broken

In their first two games of the 2025 season, the L.A. Rams will face off against quarterbacks who had very different paths to the NFL: One the expected way and one the “new” way.

In Week 1, the Rams face the Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud, a former five-star recruit who went to Ohio State out of high school, waited a year, took over the job for the next two seasons, and entered the NFL Draft as a top prospect.

In Week 2, the Rams face the Tennessee Titans and expected starting rookie Cam Ward, the number one pick of the draft. But unlike Stroud, Ward had no stars coming out of high school, started his career at Incarnate Word, then transferred to Washington State, and then after two seasons there transferred to Miami in 2024.

It took Ward not one but two transfers to become a notable NFL Draft prospect and he was only able to do that because of the relatively new transfer portal.

Players like Ward can attest to the potential benefits of the portal, as well as the opportunities to leave one school for another to chase a large NIL deal that can pay six or seven-figures, as he parlayed his success at two schools into enough development to become a Heisman candidate and the number one pick in the draft.

However, Cam Ward is much more of an exception than a rule.

If the Rams choose to draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 draft as a successor to Matthew Stafford, the question right now isn’t “Who will they pick?”

It’s more like, “Who the hell will be worth picking?”

The pipeline from high school to the NFL might still work in some cases, but it is broken for most.

2023 top-8 HS QB recruits: 7 transfers!

Arch Manning was the top recruit in the 2023 high school class, and he remains atop those quarterback prospects two years later. But that’s really just damning of the rest of his class, not necessarily in praise of a quarterback who is largely still admired simply because he Manning hasn’t had the CHANCE to fail yet.

Manning has only thrown 95 pass attempts at Texas over his first two seasons.

Those limited opportunities might still be impressive, but they are still limited.

As head coach Steve Sarkisian watched Quinn Ewers struggle in two huge losses late in the year (22-19 to Georgia in the SEC Championship and 28-14 to Ohio State in the CFP), Manning threw zero passes and had two carries for 13 yards.

If you had a mediocre starter and sophomore “Peyton Manning” on your bench in the final game of the season, would you keep him seated?

But let’s set Arch aside for now because at least he’s a presumed starter next season. Many of his 2023 class counterparts can’t say the same.

The next seven QBs ranked after Arch in the top-8 QBs in the 2023 recruiting class have all transferred at least once.

2. Nico Iamaleava

Original team: Tennessee

Transferred to: UCLA, 2025

Iamaleava’s decision to leave Tennessee over money dominated transfer portal headlines in April and he eventually settled for UCLA. Between his first NIL contract worth nearly eight figures and his transfer in 2025, Iamaleava is more well known for money than for playing football.

After sitting for most of his freshman year, Iamaleava had 19 touchdowns and five interceptions for Tennessee last season, but for the most part his play was considered mediocre and at-best inconsistent. However, at 6’6, 215 with rare athletic traits, there’s a belief he can still play his way into the first round conversation in 2026 or 2027.

He’ll have to prove himself at UCLA now, but a second transfer after this would be highly detrimental to his draft stock.

3. Dante Moore

Original team: UCLA

Transferred to: Oregon, 2024

If college football worked like it used to — not saying it’s better or worse, just how it used to be — Moore would probably still be at UCLA and Iamaleava would probably still be at Tennessee. Again, it’s only been two years since they committed to play at those schools.

Instead, Moore (who was ranked as the top recruit in the country by Sports Illustrated) signed with UCLA after flipping his commitment away from Oregon. Chip Kelly even let Moore start games immediately as a freshman, but eventually lost his job to Ethan Garbers and entered the transfer portal before we even hit December of that same year.

Dante Moore spent less than 12 months as a Bruin and he went back to his original choice of Oregon.

The Ducks chose Dillon Gabriel to replace Bo Nix in 2024 (Gabriel turned his transfer from UCF by way of Oklahoma to Oregon into an opportunity to potentially win the starting job with the Browns out of training camp this year) and now there’s a competition between Moore and Austin Novosad. Who is Austin Novosad? He was the 13th-ranked QB recruit in the 2023 class and he did choose Oregon as his original team.

So does Oregon want to go with the higher-ranked recruit who left UCLA after less than one bad season or the lower-ranked recruit who has been there for the past two years? It’s not like we know anything about Novosad either as he’s only made 13 pass attempts.

Given that Oregon transfers Nix and Gabriel did so much to improve their stock, perhaps Moore is the next in line.

4. Jackson Arnold

Original team: Oklahoma

Transfer: Auburn, 2025

The Gatorade National Player of the Year in 2022, Arnold would seemed to have made a great choice by going to Oklahoma, a program that has produced a lot of first round picks at quarterback, including Sam Bradford and Baker Mayfield.

But Arnold would spend his first season backing up Gabriel (who had transferred from UCF to Oklahoma that year) and then after being handed the starting gig in 2024, he was benched for true freshman Michael Hawkins. Arnold threw only eight touchdowns in the last nine games and then entered the transfer portal.

He’s now at Auburn, where he’s again being handed the starting job. Can he retain it this time?

5. Malachi Nelson

Original team: USC

Transferred to: Boise State in 2024, UTEP in 2025

Nelson was named the best recruit in the country by ESPN and he chose USC, a school that has a ton of experience in developing elite quarterback prospects into future top-10 NFL draft picks. That won’t happen for Nelson, at least not at USC. And probably not anywhere since he’s now at UTEP two years later.

Nelson was supposed to be the heir apparent to Caleb Williams (who transferred away from Oklahoma) but instead he entered the portal on December 17th of his freshman year. What was Nelson afraid of? Miller Moss? Jayden Maiava?

I guess he wasn’t that prized of a recruit after all because five-star recruits used to be happy to wait for one or two years to actually win a starting job after high school. Not to be handed one.

But Nelson transferred to Boise State and couldn’t even win the job for the Broncos so he entered the portal again almost exactly one year after leaving USC, but now his stock is all the way down to going to UTEP. Nelson is now in competition with Skyler Locklear and Shay Smith just to be the starter and he may not even win that.

6. Jaden Rashada

Original team: ASU

Transferred to: Georgia in 2024, Sacramento State in 2025

One of the top QB recruits in the history of Arizona State, Rashada barely lasted for one year at the program. ASU landed Sam Leavitt in the transfer portal in 2024 and he led the Sun Devils to an 11-3 record, something that the coaches clearly didn’t see as possible with Rashada.

Rashada went to Georgia, which seemed like an upgrade at the time, but he never saw the field for the Bulldogs and wasn’t even the backup. Rashada is now at Sacramento State just two years after being an ELITE high school recruit. The odds of ever making the NFL are now extremely slim for Rashada.

7. Aidan Chiles

Original team: Oregon State

Transferred to: Michigan State, 2024

Chiles is remarkably in one of the better positions of anyone on this list merely because he’s a starter at a Division-I FBS power 5 program. Barely. Chiles lost a competition to transfer D.J. Uiagalelei in 2023 and then transferred to Michigan State that December.

He threw 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2024 and will be on the hot seat in 2025, although right now nobody is really coming for his job.

8. Austin Mack

Original team: Washington

Transferred to: Alabama, 2024

Mack’s position is far better than most QBs in his class because at least his transfer was partially caused by the decision to follow his coaching staff. After Alabama hired Kalen DeBoer away from Washington, Mack transferred to the Crimson Tide.

Unfortunately for Mack, he’s not in the lead. OC Ryan Grubb has said that if a decision had to be made today, Ty Simpson would be Alabama’s starter. Oh and by the way, 5-star freshman Keelon Russell could be the best recruit in the entire country and whether he takes over in 2025 or 2026, the expectation is that he’s Alabama’s future at the position.

Clearly “best laid plans” mean nothing in college football anymore, but Russell’s in a much better position right now than Mack.

Other transfers:

• 12. Eli Holston (transferred from Alabama to Pitt after one year)
• 15. Rickie Collins (transferred from LSU to Syracuse after one year)
• 16. Dylan Lonergan (transferred from Alabama to Boston College after one year)
• 17. Malachi Singleton (transferred from Arkansas to Purdue after one year)
• 18. Sam Leavitt (transferred from Michigan State to ASU after one year)
• 19. J.J. Kohl (transferred from Iowa State to Appalachian State after two years)
• 22. Gabarri Johnson (transferred from Mizzou to Oregon State after one year)
• 23. Brayden Dorman (transferred from Arizona to CSU-Pueblo after two years)
• 24. Tad Hudson (transferred from UNC to Coastal Carolina after one year)
• 25. Pierce Clarkson (transferred from Louisville to Ole Miss after two years, and transferred to UCLA five months later)

So 17 of the top-25 high school QB recruits from the graduating class of two years ago has since transferred to a new school. Some of them transferred twice. Some of them aren’t even at FBS schools anymore.

Leavitt is arguably the only of them to have a secure job going into the 2025 season. And the ones who haven’t transferred are not better players, in most cases.

When we talk about the top passers in college football in 2024, we almost never talk about quarterbacks who were recruited as part of the 2023 class.

• Highest passer rating: Darian Mensah, the 112th-ranked recruit in the 2023 class, who posted a 166.7 passer rating with Tulane last year and has since transferred to Duke
• Eli Holston had 17 TD/7 INT in 10 games with Pitt last year
• 9th-ranked QB Avery Johnson had 25 TD/10 INT with Kansas State last year; Johnson has not transferred

Yeah, there’s nothing new about five-star flops — college football has ALWAYS had disappointing quarterbacks recruits (far more bad than good) — but this is something different.

These players don’t even stick around at one school long enough to find out what it’s like to stand back up after you flop.

What happens when you stay

LaNorris Sellers was the 34th-ranked QB prospect at 247 and he has stayed at South Carolina — he didn’t transfer after not starting as a freshman. Sellers had a good season (18 TD, 7 INT, 7 rushing TD) and he’s now considered a potential first round pick in 2026 or 2027.

Not everyone’s story will be like Sellers. But his is still one of the only success stories in the entire QB class.

How do Rams move forward in their future draft decisions with a quarterback class that is as unstable as these last few?

Very carefully. And potentially not in the first round at all.