• Jayden Daniels enters 2025 on the heels of a historic rookie season: Daniels was otherworldly in his first NFL campaign, etching his name into PFF history. His ceiling is now that of Lamar Jackson, and his floor remains incredibly high.

• Caleb Williams will have to do more in 2025: The No. 1 overall pick in 2024 endured a disappointing rookie season, and he’ll need to turn it around this season to avoid being labeled a bust.

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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

Similar to the 2023 class, those selected at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft experienced radically different seasons as rookies. Jayden Daniels put together one of the greatest rookie campaigns ever, while No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and Drake Maye each endured some trials and tribulations. How does that affect each passer’s future projection?

We will focus on the “big six” quarterbacks from the 2024 NFL Draft class. While Joe Milton looked incredible in one game for the New England Patriots in 2024 — and then was traded to the Dallas Cowboys — and Spencer Rattler has an opportunity to become a starter in 2025, neither projects to be a long-term answer for their team.

Ceiling: Jordan Love
Floor: Bust

Williams entered the NFL with a tremendous amount of hype, only to disappoint as a rookie. Especially when compared to the rest of the class, Williams’ season was, at best, underwhelming. He flashed big-play potential and incredible arm talent, but he struggled with accuracy and took on pressure and sacks far too often.

His 63.5 PFF passing grade was the worst of the five first-round quarterbacks who saw action in 2024, as were his 54.7% accurate rate, 23.2% uncatchable-pass rate and 26.1% pressure-to-sack rate. All of the issues we saw in his final season of college football showed up in his rookie campaign.

Granted, top prospects who don’t put it all together as rookies are still capable of turning things around — Jared Goff is one notable example, and Bryce Young appears to have turned a corner ahead of 2025 — but struggling as badly as Williams did usually does not end well. Still, he has the talent and one of the best supporting casts in the NFL to turn it around in 2025.

Ceiling: Lamar Jackson
Floor: Kyler Murray

Daniels engineered arguably the best rookie season of all time. His 91.3 PFF overall grade ranks second among all rookie passers in the PFF era (since 2006), and he led his team to the brink of a Super Bowl appearance. Daniels’ ability to consistently generate positive plays is an aspect of Lamar Jackson’s game that makes him incredibly difficult to defend. Factor in the elite athleticism that both bring to the table, and the idea of Daniels as a future MVP is not out of the question.

With how great his rookie season was, it’s hard to envision Daniels not being a long-term, high-end starter. Murray’s low end is due to injuries; when healthy, he has been a game-changing player. Expect defensive coordinators to adjust to a few things Daniels does well, but his ability to extend plays with his legs will be a problem for defenses for the foreseeable future.

Highest-Graded NFL Quarterbacks in 2024

Ceiling: Trevor Lawrence
Floor: Daniel Jones

Maye showed off an incredible arm in college (80 big-time throws in two seasons) and the ability to protect the ball (1.7% turnover-worthy throw rate in 2023). The Patriots, unfortunately, put one of the worst supporting casts around Maye, so his projections moving forward really shouldn’t change based on his performance in 2024.

While flashing some of his athleticism and playmaking abilities, Maye wasn’t able to showcase his big arm consistently. He notched just 14 big-time throws and 16 turnover-worthy plays, making his rookie season similar to Daniel Jones’ in their PFF grades and efficiency. Maye posted a 64.9 PFF passing grade and Jones logged a 65.1 mark, while Maye averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt and Jones averaged 6.6.

Obviously, Jones struggled to generate big-time throws over the past four years with the Giants. I don’t anticipate that being an issue for Maye, but Jones had a better big-time throw rate as a rookie. Maye’s athleticism and big arm give him a high-end ceiling like that of Trevor Lawrence, who I think has better play in his future.

Ceiling: Justin Herbert
Floor: Jameis Winston

Penix’s rookie season consisted of just 120 dropbacks and three starts. His 87.9 PFF overall grade and 87.6 PFF passing grade are evidence of his high-end ability, though. He generated a 9% big-time throw rate with just a 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate — numbers that point to the Falcons potentially having found themselves a franchise quarterback.

Of course, three starts aren’t enough to draw conclusions about a player. One issue that Penix had coming into the league was ball placement. While his Week 18 game showcased everything good about him (94.5 PFF passing grade and seven big-time throws), his Week 17 outing was the opposite (54.3 passing grade and 34.4% uncatchable throw rate).

Despite Penix’s accuracy issues, he protected the ball in his two seasons at Washington, generated 70 big-time throws and rarely took sacks. The floor for Penix is a Jameis Winston-type career where his accuracy issues result in up-and-down performances with high highs and low lows. But if Penix can fix those issues, his ceiling of Justin Herbert is mouth-watering. Herbert has been one of the NFL’s best regular-season quarterbacks of the past five seasons, just with an inability to win the big game in the playoffs.

Michael Penix Jr.’s 2024 PFF Game Grades

Ceiling: Joe Burrow
Floor: Sam Darnold

McCarthy’s rookie season ended before it started, as he needed knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. Whatever you thought about him heading into the 2024 season shouldn’t change for 2025 and the future.

McCarthy wasn’t asked to carry the national-championship Michigan team, but when he needed to, he delivered. While he wasn’t elite at generating big-time throws, nor was his turnover-worthy rate spectacularly low, McCarthy excelled under pressure and when facing the blitz. His success rate in both situations ranked third in the class, behind Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.

Darnold’s career looked over until his incredible 2024 season with the Vikings. Assuming McCarthy is better than Darnold for his career isn’t a stretch, but nothing is ever a guarantee at quarterback.

Ceiling: Drew Brees
Floor: Mac Jones

Nix surprised many with his play as a rookie, considering most analysts viewed him as a second-round prospect in last year’s draft. He proved to be a very capable starter who could execute Sean Payton’s offense. His 73.8 PFF passing grade in 2024 wasn’t spectacular by any means, but he displayed an ability to protect the football (1.8% turnover-worthy play rate) and his knack to avoid sacks carried over from college (12.9% pressure-to-sack rate).

Nix doesn’t have Drew Brees-like accuracy — who does, really — but he’s accurate enough and avoids sacks, which are two Brees traits that helped him have a Hall-of-Fame career. Considering Nix’s low-end playmaking abilities, his floor is Mac Jones. In the end, though, he’s likely to never hit that floor and should be a capable long-term starter.