Understanding Acts of Cowherdism

I’m sure everyone is aware that Colin Cowherd is not a fan of J.J. McCarthy. He even went so far as to compare him to…Danny Wuerffel.

Yes, it’s easy to dismiss Cowherd. Bloviators gonna bloviate. The guy collects atrocious takes like my nephew collects Pokémon cards. The opinions of sports talk hosts are a lot like worked shoots in professional wrestling – there’s a genuine, real element at its core, but adding bells and whistles while playing it up for the audience is where the engagement is (and the money made). There may be some of that in Cowherd’s shenanigans. And if it gets traction online? You hit the gas. That’s how the game works. It was also clear he didn’t do his homework, either. He knows McCarthy is doomed to fail because he saw the highlights. Whatever, pal.

I place the views of pundits who played in the NFL on a higher level of credibility, so that’s why I was perplexed when Ross Tucker essentially echoed a lot of Cowherd’s ridiculousness a week or so prior. To be fair, there are others, most notably ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, who have been bullish on McCarthy’s prospects.

This comes on the heels of various reporters allowing wishes to father their thoughts regarding Aaron Rodgers in a Vikings uniform. Indeed, it was their white whale since February when the N.Y. Jets made it official that they were moving on. Dianna Russini and Michael Silver at The Athletic may have been the most prominent offenders, but they certainly weren’t alone. Rodgers finally dashed their dreams for good by signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this month.

Then there were the Kirk Cousins reunion rumors. Even with the trade for Sam Howell during the draft, they persisted. ESPN’s Dan Graziano and Seth Walder were still fanning the flames just two weeks ago. It now appears that Cousins himself has essentially closed the door on the possibility.

The collective theme has been, “The Vikings aren’t sold on J.J. McCarthy and are actively keeping their options open.” This is tedious for the simple reason that, you know, it’s BS. Ralph Waldo Emerson quipped that common sense is as rare as genius. He never saw the nonsense coming out of a healthy contingent of the national sports commentariat.

The Minnesota Vikings could have extended Sam Darnold, or in the worst case, slapped the franchise or transition tag on him. They could have kept Daniel Jones in-house for insurance. He left because he knew the prospects of being a long-term starter in Minnesota were between slim and none – and slim just left town. Aaron Rodgers did everything short of showing up outside the TCO Performance Center with a boombox blasting “In Your Eyes.” He signed with the Steelers for a $13 million base salary ($10 million guaranteed). If he hits the performance incentives, it can reach $19 million. The Vikings currently sit at $21 million in available cap space. Unrequited love is a bitch.

Can Someone Lend Me a Hand Here?

I simply can’t get my head around the disproportionate doomerism regarding McCarthy vis-à-vis the other 1st round QBs in the 2024 draft class. Could he be a disappointment? Of course. Could he even be a bust? Theoretically. In the modern era (1980-2024), 83 quarterbacks have been taken in the Top 10. How many of those quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl? Just 11. This includes Jim McMahon and Trent Dilfer. In that time, there were only 3 “can’t miss” quarterback prospects – zero, zilch, nada, 0.00% chance they weren’t going to be lights out, immediate franchise-flipping magicians: John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck. That’s it. A few others, like Trevor Lawrence, flirted with that status but never got there. The jury is still very much out on him. I’d probably put Caleb Williams in this category, too, even though it’s rare for a top prospect to take a step back as he did at USC.

The primary concern about McCarthy was his lack of reps given the run-first offense preferred by Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. This, in turn, led to the talking point that he “wasn’t asked to do as much” as the other top prospects in the class. There is truth to that, regardless of the benefits gained by being in a more pro-style system. At 48.8%, McCarthy’s Usage% trailed the second lowest (Drake Maye – 62.4%) by a considerable margin, and the highest (Caleb Williams – 68.9%) by a great deal more than that. The value of this criticism lies in the presumption that added usage (and the pressure that comes with it) would have had a disproportionately adverse impact on his key performance indicators. Would McCarthy have thrived in the video game offensive system run by Dan Lanning at Oregon? Would Michigan not have experienced its success had McCarthy had more on his plate? I’m skeptical, but dealing with hypotheticals is a waste of time. If high-volume, prolific stats at the college level translated into automatic NFL success, Case Keenum would have been Patrick Mahomes; Timmy Chang would have been Lamar Jackson.

Let’s dig a little deeper to see what McCarthy did3rd in QBR. 3rd in EPA/Dropback. 2nd in EPA/Dropback when outside the pocket. What about when it counts? Like 3rd and long conversion rate. That’s where the rubber truly meets the road. Well, McCarthy was 1st in a landslide with an incredible rate of 47.5%. When the opposing defenses knew McCarthy was throwing, he excelled.

But, but, but…Colin Cowherd doesn’t see the “wow” factor in McCarthy:

“Go back and look at the people I trust — I never buy, when you say this about a quarterback, ‘that guy is a winner.’ Everybody under Jim Harbaugh and Nick Saban and Steve Spurrier’s a winner. I don’t wanna hear that. If you go back and look, his arm is modest, his escapability is modest, his release wasn’t super quick.”

The arm strength critique is nonsense. At the NFL combine, McCarthy’s throw velocity was clocked at 61 mph, trailing only Joe Milton III. Scouts confirmed his art talent, particularly for throws in the middle of the field. Is his arm of the Elway, Marino, Favre, Mahomes, and Allen caliber? No. He could also improve by varying the speed and arc on some of his throws. OK, so? That’s what KOC and Josh McCown are there for. Speaking of Josh Allen, there were far greater concerns about his accuracy (56%) and decision-making (21 INTs in 2 years) coming out of Wyoming. Among the greatest red flags? His noticeable drop-off against superior, non-Mountain West competition. Ahhh, nice segue. Even those with the most skeptical eye can’t deny that McCarthy faced as many high-pressure, high-impact situations as possible coming into the NFL (at 21 years of age). 27-1 as a starter. 2-0 against Ohio State. Two College Football Playoff appearances. Took down Saban and Alabama. National Champion. His intangibles are off the damn chart. McCarthy was your run-of-the-mill “winner” in college football the same way Michael Jordan was just another NBA All-Star.

To quote one of those anonymous NFL sources – an “NFC assistant” – that are everywhere in write-ups before each draft: “He’s by far the most pro-readymade QB because of him being with (Jim) Harbaugh, being in a pro-style system, operating under center, communicating the play call. He crushed the combine interview. It was easy. Super smart. Communicates well. Super calm demeanor. Quiet confidence almost. His pro day was probably the best of all the QBs.”

How’s that for a “wow factor”?

Conclusion

Yes, coming off a 14-win season and letting your QB walk in free agency adds to the scrutiny. Will the Vikings achieve that lofty win total again? Highly unlikely. But we don’t have to. Did that gaudy record frighten or intimidate the 10-win L.A. Rams in the playoffs? Nope. I’ll trade 2, 3, 4 regular season wins for a team more battle-tested navigating the NFL’s 5th toughest schedule and primed to do damage in the playoffs.

I also realize the expectations for McCarthy will far exceed anything the other 1st round QBs in his class had to face last year. Baking all of that into the equation, it pales in comparison to the wind at McCarthy’s back and the advantages for him to maximize. None of this happens in a vacuum. He’s playing for the reigning NFL Coach of the Year, who made Sam Darnold look like Dan Marino. KAM addressed the interior offensive line with proven commodities. Brian Flores will limit opposing offenses and make his job easier. The Vikings have one of the most well-rounded rosters in the entire NFL. Talent is everywhere. Far more would need to happen for the Vikings to regress to 6-8 wins than not be in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card spot or better in late December.

It would absolutely shock me if McCarthy doesn’t have a season in the range of the rookie campaigns of Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Of course, there will be hiccups. The learning curve is real. I’m not arguing otherwise at all. What I’m saying is that absolutely nothing in McCarthy’s record to date, coupled with the ideal situation he finds himself in, portends disappointment. It’s not the usual purple neurons activating to obscure reality either. It’s simply common sense. Don’t take my word for it. The excitement is out there, and it’s massive. Last week, it was announced that McCarthy raked in a staggering $4 million in licensing royalties last year – the highest figure in the entire NFL.

The doomerism just doesn’t add up.