• Russell Wilson is set to add a new element to the Giants’ passing game: Even in Year 13, Wilson repeatedly exploited single-coverage matchups and gave the Steelers’ passing game the explosiveness it desperately needed. Now, he’ll look to do the same for the Giants in 2025.

• The 49ers have been the NFL’s most lethal deep-ball team since 2022: A combination of Kyle Shanahan’s creativity and Brock Purdy’s accuracy have allowed San Francisco’s offense to thrive over the three-year sample.

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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

NFL quarterbacks are always looking to create explosive plays, and accurate deep passes tend to be the simplest way to do so. Some quarterbacks with elite arm strength throw the deep ball with ease, while others succeed through touch and timing.

In either case, there are ways to track both the quality of a set of throws, via PFF grading, and the efficiency at which quarterbacks are succeeding with deeper throws, via expected points added (EPA) per play. Across one-year and three-year samples, conclusions can be drawn about who the NFL’s best deep passers are, though there is significant variability in year-over-year success.

With all that said, we’ll use deep PFF passing grades to evaluate a quarterback’s individual performance and EPA per play to evaluate a unit’s efficiency in executing a play. Both will be used to examine quarterbacks’ deep-ball effectiveness in this exercise.

Highest Deep (20-Plus Yards) PFF Passing Grades in NFL in 2024

Russell Wilson’s impeccable touch on deep throws has been a weapon throughout his career, and he showed it off again in 2024. Particularly when he was targeting George Pickens, Wilson repeatedly exploited single-coverage matchups and gave the Steelers’ passing game the explosiveness it desperately needed.

When Derek Carr was healthy last season, the deep ball was his best asset, primarily when offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak created those opportunities via play action. Josh Allen was destined to be on this list as someone who attempted more deep passes and made more big-time throws than any quarterback in the NFL. Geno Smith’s vertical passing prowess was his greatest strength in Seattle, which will be examined further below. Bryce Young became a fearless deep passer down the stretch last season despite Carolina ranking dead last as a team in PFF receiving grade.

One last name to note here is Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr., who fell just short of the required number of attempts to qualify for this list but posted a 98.2 deep PFF passing grade in limited work last season. His arm talent gave the Falcons a dimension that they didn’t previously have with Kirk Cousins at the helm.

Highest Deep Passing EPA per Play in 2024

As they did in many categories last season, the Eagles reigned supreme as the league’s most efficient deep passing team. Though they weren’t a high-volume offense in this category, with just 57 attempts over the 2024 season, they led the NFL with a 49.1% completion rate on 20-plus-yard throws. Of course, having wide receiver A.J. Brown, who paced the league in PFF receiving grade versus single coverage, certainly helped the cause.

The Steelers predictably feature once again. Along with Russell Wilson’s deep-ball chops, the Steelers had one of the five qualified wide receivers, George Pickens, who recorded a perfect 99.9 deep PFF receiving grade last season. The Vikings‘ presence on this list is the product of head coach Kevin O’Connell’s work with Sam Darnold, who completed 48% of his deep passes last season, the second-highest rate in the NFL (behind Wilson).

The Titans are perhaps the most intriguing team on this list, considering they ranked last in the NFL in PFF passing grade last season. However, Will Levis was certainly unafraid to take chances down the field and racked up 14.8 yards per attempt on deep passes, the fifth-highest average in the NFL. His issues came about when the deep ball was taken away and he was forced to work underneath.

Another strong-armed quarterback, Justin Herbert, is the catalyst for the Chargers’ placement in this category. He ranked ninth in the NFL last season with a 92.4 deep PFF passing grade, and no passer threw more deep touchdown passes. His 24 big-time throws on deep attempts ranked second in the NFL, behind Josh Allen. Herbert’s arm talent will continue to allow Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to call for shots downfield.

Highest Deep PFF Passing Grades in NFL from 2022 to 2024

Given the year-over-year variance in deep-ball performance, some different names appear when we look at PFF passing grades across a three-year sample.

One player who appears in both charts is Geno Smith, who accrued a perfect 99.9 deep PFF passing grade in his three seasons as Seattle’s starter. That’s music to the ears of his new team, the Las Vegas Raiders, who posted the third-worst deep PFF passing grade over that same span.

The other familiar name is Josh Allen, who owns the fifth-best deep PFF passing grade since 2022 due to his incredible arm and playmaking ability. The reason he isn’t at the very top is that, despite leading the NFL in deep completions and big-time throws in this timeframe, he has committed the most turnover-worthy plays on deep throws. However, his high-risk play style has produced enough positive production to make him an elite downfield passer.

The three players between Smith and Allen are interesting for various reasons. Joe Burrow is near the top of just about any list that involves a three-year sample of passing metrics. Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t have anywhere near an elite arm, but he’s done well to work the ball downfield to his excellent set of weapons. Burrow and Tagovailoa have recorded the two fastest average times to throw of any starting quarterback when making passes beyond 20 yards since 2022. This further accentuates that timing is just as important as arm strength when it comes to completing deep passes.

Dak Prescott’s case is the most interesting with regard to 2025. The Cowboys recently acquired wide receiver George Pickens, who, as mentioned earlier, recorded a perfect 99.9 deep PFF receiving grade last season. Operating without a vertical complement to CeeDee Lamb in 2024, Dallas struggled to create explosive plays downfield. If Prescott develops a rapport with Pickens, he could be in for a bounce-back season.

Highest Deep Passing EPA per Play from 2022 to 2024

The most fascinating part of this tackle is that three descendants of the Shanahan coaching tree represent the three most efficient teams on deep passes.

Brock Purdy certainly isn’t known for high-octane arm strength, but Kyle Shanahan has done a spectacular job of creating big-play opportunities for his quarterback. Since 2022, the 49ers are tied for third in the NFL in deep PFF receiving grade and have completed the second-most deep passes to receivers considered open or wide open, per PFF’s quarterback charting.

Just behind the 49ers in deep PFF receiving grade over the past three seasons are the Dolphins. Led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Miami has found ways to create explosive plays despite Tua Tagovailoa’s average arm strength. Hill actually leads the NFL with an incredible 98.8 deep PFF receiving grade since 2022.

Second behind Hill in the deep PFF receiving grade ranks since 2022 is Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson. Jefferson’s skillset paired with Kevin O’Connell’s outstanding play calling allows the Vikings to create explosive plays regardless of who their quarterback is. No team has completed more deep passes to open or wide-open receivers since 2022 than Minnesota.

The Super Bowl champion Eagles show up again with a unique, yet simple, method of completing deep passes. They take advantage of single-high defenses by throwing go routes to the outside. Since 2022, no team has racked up more yardage or posted a better PFF receiving grade on go routes than Philadelphia. Only the Steelers have completed more go routes, though a heavy portion of that production came last season for Pittsburgh with Russell Wilson at the helm of their offense.

What these charts have shown us is that it takes a combination of a talented quarterback and excellent play-callers to execute downfield shots. Having a strong arm like Josh Allen or Justin Herbert can help, but it’s certainly not a requirement. Having a creative play-caller, such as Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O’Connell, is a major factor in manufacturing explosive plays. As with most things in the game of football, high-level execution requires contributions from many moving parts.