The Rams may not have to worry about Saquon Barkley this year

Barkley is due for regression after a heavy workload and because of the “Madden curse”

It remains to be seen whether the Los Angeles Rams can make it over the hump and get back to the Super Bowl in 2025. One of the main obstacles in their way are the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Reigning offensive player of the year Saquon Barkley had his way with Los Angeles last season, amassing 534 yards and four touchdowns in two matchups.

The Rams spent the offseason preparing for Philly’s “tush push” and strengthening their run defense by signing Los Angeles Chargers free agent Poona Ford and then drafting Josaiah Stewart of Michigan and Ty Hamilton of Ohio State in the third and fifth round of the NFL Draft, respectively.

But even as LA doubles down on a strong defensive line, they may not need to worry about Barkley making the same impact in 2025.

Saquon Barkley is due for regression

I’d never root for injuries and neither should any fan. This should not be confused with such; however, there are times when you can point to inflated workloads and metrics and predict when individual players are due for a drop in production. That appears to be the case for Barkley heading into this season.

To briefly pat myself on the back, I do have a track record of predicting such regressions.

Barkley’s workload is not sustainable

Between the regular season and the playoffs, the Eagles handed the ball to Barkley 436 times. He was targeted on 58 passing plays, hauling in 46 receptions. That makes for 482 total offensive touches.

This list by Pro Football Reference accumulates the running backs with the most touches in a single year, although it is limited to the regular season. Barkley ranks 96th all-time based on his 2024 season; however, if including the playoffs—without adjusting other players on the list—he’d instead rank second all-time behind James Wilder’s 1984 season with 492 touches for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

These are the other individuals in close proximity:

James Wilder (age 26): 492, 1984

Saquon Barkley (27): 482, 2024

Larry Johnson (26): 457, 2006

Eddie George (26): 453, 2000

LaDainian Tomlinson (23): 451, 2002

DeMarco Murray (26): 449, 2014

Now, this is how many touches these players had the following season:

James Wilder: 418

Larry Johnson: 188

Eddie George: 352

LaDainian Tomlinson: 413

DeMarco Murray: 237

Excluding Barkley, the remaining backs saw a 30% decline in their total offensive touches the following year. This drop is mostly attributable to Johnson, George, and Murray; however, it is still a firm warning that such a workload can take a toll and diminish both availability and effectiveness the next season.

Let’s take a look at some other factors that are potentially working against Barkley in 2025, although maybe closer to fable than truth.

The “Madden curse”

These are the last three running backs to grace the cover of the Madden video game followed by how many games they played the next season:

Christian McCaffrey (2025), San Francisco 49ers: 4 games

Peyton Hillis (2012), Cleveland Browns: 10 games

Shaun Alexander (2007), Seattle Seahawks: 10 games

The history of the Madden curse is more unkind to running backs than other positions, in fairness. In recent years quarterbacks such as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson have defied such superstitions and had strong seasons.