• Jayden Daniels is the early riser from the 2024 class: The LSU product would be the No. 1 pick in a redraft after his historic rookie campaign.

• Josh Allen beats out Lamar Jackson as 2018’s No. 1 pick: There is no wrong answer between the two, but Allen has recorded a 94.5 PFF overall grade that ranks seventh in PFF history and just a hair above Jackson’s 93.3.

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Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

The NFL draft is often a crapshoot, with every team hoping to find one or multiple of the best players in each class. Even the first-overall pick every year comes with some uncertainty.

Using PFF stats and grades, here is who we believe would be selected first overall in every draft since 2006.

2006: T Andrew Whitworth

During his 16-year career, which included stints in Cincinnati and Los Angeles, Whitworth was one of the best pass protectors of his generation. He earned at least an 80.0 PFF pass-blocking grade in 13 of those seasons. His final season in 2021 was perhaps his most triumphant, as he recorded an 89.8 PFF pass-blocking grade en route to a Super Bowl victory with the Rams.

Whitworth’s 93.5 career PFF pass-blocking grade ranks third in PFF history, behind Joe Thomas and David Bakhtiari.

2007: WR Calvin Johnson

Perhaps the hardest decision on this list, Johnson narrowly edges out Joe Thomas for the top spot in the 2007 redraft. The man known as Megatron was as dominant a wide receiver as we’ve seen in the PFF era.

Johnson’s 92.7 career PFF receiving grade is tied for the ninth best among qualified wide receivers in PFF history, despite his retirement after his age-30 season. He was certainly still in peak form at the time, as he finished his final five seasons with at least an 86.0 PFF receiving grade.

Calvin Johnson’s Career PFF Grades

2008: QB Matt Ryan

Considering the heights Ryan led Atlanta to in his career, the Miami Dolphins very likely would’ve selected him first overall in a redraft. Ryan finished 10 of his 15 seasons with at least an 80.0 PFF passing grade. His best season came in 2016 when he led the Falcons to a Super Bowl berth on the strength of his career-high 91.5 PFF passing grade. All told, Ryan finished his career with an elite 93.4 PFF passing grade.

2009: QB Matthew Stafford

The first of a handful of first-overall picks that stay the same, Stafford is the greatest quarterback in Detroit Lions history. He also put his stamp on the Los Angeles Rams’ franchise by leading them to a Super Bowl victory during the 2021 season.

Across his first 16 seasons, Stafford has recorded an outstanding 88.7 PFF passing grade and a 5.2% big-time throw rate. He’s gotten even better with age, as his 86.0 PFF passing grade in 2023 represents his career high.

2010: T Trent Williams

Williams is one of the best offensive tackles ever to set foot in the NFL and should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when eligible. He has recorded an unbelievable 97.1 PFF overall grade and a 96.5 PFF run-blocking grade over his career so far. His PFF pass-blocking grade isn’t far behind, at 90.3, and he has earned at least an 80.0 PFF pass-blocking grade in each of the past 12 seasons he’s played in. 

2011: QB Cam Newton

Von Miller and Julio Jones have valid arguments here, but Carolina was in such desperate need for a quarterback that Newton would still be the likely choice, especially after his incredible Heisman-winning campaign at Auburn in 2010.

From 2011 to 2018, Newton earned an 81.9 PFF overall grade as the Panthers’ starter. The pinnacle of his career came in 2015, when he earned a career-high 84.7 PFF overall grade en route to an NFL MVP award and a Super Bowl appearance. While he faded quickly in the twilight of his career, Newton is one of the greatest dual-threat quarterbacks in NFL history.

2012: QB Russell Wilson

Andrew Luck displayed brilliance throughout his career, but his lack of a supporting cast curtailed his NFL story. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson has been one of the most consistent passers of this generation and could one day be a Hall of Famer.

Wilson’s 94.4 PFF overall grade since he was drafted in 2012 ranks seventh in the NFL. His 90.6 PFF overall grade in 2012 is tied with Jayden Daniels for the highest recorded by a qualified rookie quarterback. Wilson’s 6.5% career big-time throw rate is also the best in the NFL since he was drafted.

2013: TE Travis Kelce

Not many top-10 picks in the 2013 draft class panned out. However, the Kansas City Chiefs managed to snag one of the greatest tight ends in NFL history in Round 3 in Travis Kelce. Since 2006, Kelce leads all tight ends with a 94.2 PFF receiving grade. His 1,004 career regular-season receptions are the 14th most in NFL history, and he has recorded the third-most receiving yards by a tight end — behind Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten.

Most importantly to Chiefs fans, Kelce’s 90.8 career postseason PFF receiving grade ranks first among tight ends and third among all players with at least 25 postseason targets in PFF history.

Tight Ends with the Most PFF WAR Since 2022

2014: DI Aaron Donald

Jadeveon Clowney was selected first overall in 2014, and while he has enjoyed a nice career, Aaron Donald is arguably the greatest defensive tackle in NFL history. Alongside his three Defensive Player of the Year awards and eight first-team All-Pro selections, Donald earned an incredible 97.2 PFF overall grade for his career.

Not only was he dominant, but he was consistent. Donald earned at least a 90.0 PFF overall grade in all 10 seasons of his career, a feat that may never be replicated.

2015: WR Stefon Diggs

2015 carried the most underwhelming group of candidates for this list by a wide margin. The class had productive players, such as Danielle Hunter, Tyler Lockett and Amari Cooper, but we’ll go with Stefon Diggs, who spent his first nine NFL seasons producing at a high level in Minnesota and Buffalo.

Over the past 10 seasons, Diggs ranks 10th among qualified wide receivers with a 92.5 PFF receiving grade. Postseason included, his 11,462 receiving yards are the fifth most in the NFL — behind Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins.

2016: QB Dak Prescott

The Rams traded a king’s ransom for the opportunity to select Jared Goff with the first pick in 2016, but had they known what Dak Prescott would become, they may have opted for him as their franchise quarterback instead.

Prescott’s 87.8 career PFF passing grade outpaces Goff’s 82.5 mark. He has also provided significantly more value on the ground than Goff, accruing an 80.9 PFF rushing grade so far in his career.

2017: QB Patrick Mahomes

Cleveland selected one of the greatest defensive players in NFL history, Myles Garrett, with the first pick in 2017. However, the value of a franchise quarterback can’t be ignored, especially when talking about Patrick Mahomes. He has appeared in the Super Bowl in five of his seven seasons as Kansas City’s starter, winning three of them along the way.

Mahomes’ 96.1 PFF overall grade ranks first among all quarterbacks since 2017. It’s also already the fifth-best mark in PFF history — behind Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning.

2018: QB Josh Allen

Endless debates could be had about whether this pick should be Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, and there really is no wrong answer. Using PFF grades as the tiebreaker, we’ll opt for Allen, who has recorded a 94.5 PFF overall grade that ranks seventh in PFF history and just a hair above Jackson’s 93.3.

Allen also beats out Jackson for the top PFF rushing grade by a quarterback in PFF history, with an unbelievable 96.2 figure. This past season, Allen became the first quarterback in PFF history to record five consecutive seasons with at least a 90.0 PFF overall grade.

2019: QB Kyler Murray

Nick Bosa, A.J. Brown and Maxx Crosby are all worthy candidates here, but Arizona was so desperate for a franchise quarterback after Josh Rosen’s disastrous rookie season that Kyler Murray would likely be their selection again.

All things considered, Murray has displayed flashes of brilliance throughout his career. He’s earned an 84.8 PFF overall grade through his first six seasons while recording at least an 82.0 PFF overall grade in three of those years. His best season was in 2021, when he recorded an 86.7 PFF passing grade and led the NFL with a 7.9% big-time throw rate.

2020: QB Joe Burrow

The 2020 quarterback class is shaping up to be legendary, but there’s not a chance the Cincinnati Bengals would select anyone but Joe Burrow.

Since entering the NFL, Burrow owns an NFL-leading 94.1 PFF passing grade. His 95.3 career PFF overall grade ranks sixth in PFF history, behind Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes. Burrow has played championship-caliber football for his entire career. The Bengals just need to shore up his supporting cast to win a Lombardi Trophy.

Highest-Graded NFL Quarterbacks in 2024

2021: QB Trevor Lawrence

One of the toughest decisions in this entire process was weighing Jacksonville’s need at quarterback during this draft versus the class’ other players who have emerged, such as Micah Parsons and Ja’Marr Chase. Ultimately, the Jaguars would likely still take Lawrence, considering the hype attached to him as a prospect.

Lawrence has flashed brilliance at times despite turbulent coaching situations throughout his career. Over the past three seasons, he has recorded a solid 80.1 PFF passing grade with 83 big-time throws — the fifth most in the NFL.

2022: EDGE Aidan Hutchinson

Hutchinson was arguably the best player in college football during the 2021 season, but the Jaguars opted for Travon Walker after his excellent pre-draft process. Walker has developed into a decent player, but Hutchinson may be a generational edge defender as long as he recovers from last season’s injury.

Since entering the NFL, Hutchinson boasts a 92.2 PFF overall grade, which ranks fifth among qualified edge defenders — behind Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt. 

2023: QB C.J. Stroud

While Bryce Young began to show promise down the stretch in 2024, C.J. Stroud has been nothing short of fantastic through his first two NFL seasons. The 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year has earned an 82.2 PFF passing grade while leading the Texans to AFC South titles in each of his first two campaigns. Stroud’s 53 big-time throws in that span, including postseason play, are the 10th most in the NFL.

2024: QB Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ historic rookie season earns him the top spot in a 2024 redraft. His 90.6 PFF overall grade tied Russell Wilson for the best by a qualified rookie quarterback in PFF history. He recorded an excellent 84.7 PFF passing grade while leading the NFL with a minuscule 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate. Daniels’ dual-threat abilities have put the Washington Commanders back on the map in short order.