The Rams’ pass rush is elite, but will a shaky secondary hold them back?
The Los Angeles Rams will head into the 2025 season with high expectations. They currently have the seventh-highest odds to win the Super Bowl and have the third-highest odds to win the NFC. It’s not far-fetched to call this Rams team a contender.
While the Rams may be seen as a contender, that doesn’t mean the roster is without concerns. There are some question marks when it comes to the tackle depth, specifically on the left side. The same can be said about the depth at guard. There is a scenario in which the bottom completely falls out.
This is also a team that had needs at cornerback and decided to run it back. They brought back Ahkello Witherspoon and kept Darious Williams. All the eggs now seem to be in the Jalen Ramsey basket. While Ramsey is an upgrade over any of the Rams cornerbacks, he’s also not the all-pro player that he was in 2020 and 2021.
Over the last few weeks, The Athletic Football Show has gone through all 32 teams and their offseasons, determining whether or not they would buy or sell the offseason. Hitting the contenders earlier this week, both hosts touched on the Rams. Said host Derrik Klassen,
“This defense still sucks. Like it’s not good. And maybe if they get Jalen Ramsey, I do think that that will shift my mind a little bit…I wanted more at defensive back. Even with Jalen Ramsey, I would have wanted maybe an earlier pick at defensive back. I would have wanted maybe another competition signing at Defensive Back. Like there were plenty of those mid tier corners that they could have signed. And I know that that’s not something they love to do. This is a team that very much either likes to have a star at corner or they just don’t give a shit and they’ll throw anybody out there…This was one of the worst secondaries in the league last year. And even if they get Ramsey, I expect that to continue to be the case…the secondary unit as an individual unit is one of the worst in the league. Player by player, it’s one of the worst…When you’re shooting for passable, I just feel like you leave yourself open for a lot of things to go wrong potentially. For the most part, this Rams defense was like the 24th best team in the league. And that was even true over just the second half of the year when these guys started to ramp up.”
Klassen has good reason to be concerned about the Rams secondary even if they do sign Ramsey. This is a unit that finished the season ranked 28th in EPA per pass and 26th in yards per pass over the course of the season. That was all while having a pass rush that ranked 10th in pressure rate.
To put that in perspective, out of the teams inside the top-10 in quarterback pressure rate, five of them also ranked inside the top-10 in EPA per pass allowed. The Rams were the worst at 26. The next closest was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 22.
Out of the bottom five teams in EPA per pass allowed, four out of the five teams also ranked in the bottom five in pressure rate. The Rams were the only team outside the bottom five and they were in the top-10.
With that said, it’s fair to trust that the Rams pass rush can make the secondary better. Those two entities typically intertwine in terms of success as shown by the above data. However, what if the ceiling is only being raised from the bottom three to just inside the bottom-10?
Still saying that the defense sucks seems very harsh. While the defensive splits aren’t very different from Weeks 1-9 and then Weeks 10-18, there was a shift in play after the bye week. From Weeks 7-17, which excludes the Week 18 game against the Seattle Seahawks in which the Rams rested their starters, the defense finished 10th in EPA per play.
From a pass defense perspective, the Rams were 14th in EPA per play during that same time period and 19th in pass defense success rate. Essentially, the pass defense was raised from not good to average. If the offense performs at the level that many expect them to, that’s all that’s needed from that unit. It’s also worth noting that 2025 will be year two under defensive coordinator Chris Shula. Shula will be a more experienced coordinator and every player in the secondary will have a full season in the system.
This isn’t to say that the Rams don’t have a talent disparity in the secondary. As Robert Mays noted, “I don’t think they’re good, but I think they can be passable given what the front is, especially if Ramsey is in the fold at some point here soon.”
The Rams defense is built around the pass rush and they only added to it this offseason. Jared Verse and Braden Fiske will be in year two and have a better feel of the NFL. Kobie Turner will continue to be a leader along the defensive front.
Like every team, the Rams have their flaws, but hey have a clear identity and the pieces to contend. If the pass rush delivers and the secondary can simply be “good enough,” the Rams have the ability make noise deep into January. Whether that upside is realized will depend on how the Rams hide that weakness and mitigate the damage.
