NFC West offseasons: Don’t buy the comeback for 49ers

Why a return to playoff contention may be easier said than done for 49ers

Both the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers are favored to take the NFC West crown in 2025, depending which sportsbook or analysts that you pay attention to. These are two of the only four teams to represent the NFC conference in the Super Bowl since 2018—the others being the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles.

I think it’s fool’s gold to expect San Francisco to bounce back from a disappointing 6-11 campaign. Let’s do a post-mortem on 2023 and dive into the moves they made this offseason.

What went wrong?

The 49ers were derailed by injuries last year. They ranked dead last in terms of adjusted games lost due to injuries, which is usually a sign the roster is due for positive regression after a year of bad luck. However—and we will get to this in a moment—San Francisco’s aging core seems prone to injury and betting on a return to form could very well be ill-advised.

For comparison, the Rams ranked first in adjusted games lost in 2023. They dropped to 23rd this past season and made the playoffs both years. In my view, this is a stat that is more helpful in terms of describing what went wrong versus prescribing what could happen the following year.

Key extensions:

Brock Purdy, QB

George Kittle, TE

Fred Warner, MLB

Free agent signings:

Luke Farrell, TE

Mac Jones, QB

Demarcus Robinson, WR

Tre Brown, CB

There’s no secret that the 49ers don’t have much spare money to spend in free agency, so it raises eyebrows when they sign a backup TE Luke Farrell to a three-year deal worth up to $20M. Could this be their version of the Rams’ deal with Colby Parkinson from last offseason?

Losses:

Deebo Samuel, WR (traded to Washington Commanders)

Dre Greenlaw, MLB (signed w/ Denver Broncos)

Talanoa Hufanga, DB (signed w/ Denver Broncos)

Javon Hargrave, DT (released, Minnesota Vikings)

Charvarius Ward, DB (signed w/ Indianapolis Colts)

Leonard Floyd, DE (released, Atlanta Falcons)

Maliek Collins, DT (released, Cleveland Browns)

Jaylon Moore, OT (signed w/ Kansas City Chiefs)

Elijah Mitchell, RB (signed w/ Kansas City Chiefs)

Jordan Mason, RB (traded to Minnesota Vikings)

Aaron Banks, G (signed w/ Green Bay Packers)

Drake Jackson, EDGE (released, failed physical)

Trent Williams has battled injuries in recent years. His back up, Jaylon Moore, earned a big-time payday from the Chiefs. The 49ers will have their fingers crossed that Williams doesn’t miss much time because they don’t have much depth behind the veteran currently.

Overall, this is a great deal of losses for a team that expects to bounce back in 2025. The pass rush takes a hit without Floyd and Jackson. The interior of the defensive line seems less formidable without former prized free agent Hargrave and Collins. Losing Greenlaw and Hufanga erodes the defense’s reputation of physicality.

Parting ways with Samuel seemed past due. I think the Commanders will have buyer’s remorse on that acquisition.

2025 draft class:

Mykel Williams, EDGE – Round 1

Alfred Collins, DL – Round 2

Nick Martin, DL – Round 3

Upton Stout, CB – Round 3

CJ West, DL – Round 4

Jordan Watkins, WR – Round 4

Jordan James, RB – Round 5

Marques Sigle, DB – Round 5

Kurtis Rourke, QB – Round 7

Connor Colby, OL – Round 7

Junior Bergen, WR – Round 7

Mykel Williams was one of my least favorite choices in round one, and San Francisco took him at 11th overall. There’s minimal proof of concept of Williams as a pass rusher and this is a pure bet from a physical profile and athletic standpoint. Sure, Williams is a stout run defender but that’s simply not a skillset worth taking on the cusp of the top ten.

The 49ers are clearly counting on Nick Bosa to return to form; however, injuries held him to less than 700 snaps a year ago.

Most will look at San Francisco’s repeated dipping into the defensive line pool and say they are attempting to emulate the Rams’ approach to rebuilding their front. This is much easier said then done. Even the Rams are probably surprised how quickly they were able to turn the group around after Aaron Donald’s retirement. Some luck was involved and I don’t see this as something that can be easily replicated, though if you draft in high volume you are bound to land some hits.

Players over 30:

Kyle Juszczyk, FB; 34

Demarcus Robinson, WR; 30

Trent Taylor, WR; 31

Ross Dwelley, TE; 30

George Kittle, TE; 31

Jake Brendel, C; 32

Trent Williams, LT; 36

George Odom, DB; 31

Honorable mentions:

Christian McCaffrey, RB; 28 (40 in RB years)

It’s not quite on the level of the Rams, but the 49ers are dependent on older players in key positions staying healthy without much depth behind them.

Trent Williams hasn’t played a full season since 2013. He was on the field for only 10 games last year after holding out of training camp because of a contract dispute. His backup is failed first rounder Andre Dillard.

There’s also been an erosion of depth behind McCaffrey. Second-year back Isaac Guerendo and rookie Jordan James are the primary backups, though the 49ers have struggled to draft at the position.

Kittle might be the team’s best pass catcher and is coming off a 1,100 yard season. It’s unknown whether Brandon Aiyuk will be healthy in time to start the season. Kittle could be the lead man for the first few games on the schedule until Aiyuk is back in full force.

Final thoughts:

This simply isn’t the 49ers roster we are used to seeing in recent seasons. The star-studded core is mostly gone, leaving a few older veterans that are prone to injury: Kittle, Williams, Bosa, McCaffrey, and Aiyuk. Even Purdy suffered a major elbow injury as a rookie and it remains to be seen whether that crops up again across his career.

This feels like the Rams from 2023. The difference is that Matthew Stafford put together the very best year of his career and was capable of keeping the team afloat while the defense rebuilt on the fly. Purdy, at this point, seems like someone who has been lifted by a positive ecosystem. In order to meet expectations, Purdy must drive the bus and lift those around him.

I’m not sure a turnaround is in the cards for the 49ers.