• Tyreek Hill looks to bounce back after a relatively disappointing 2024 campaign: He entered the year as the back-to-back PPR WR2 but experienced a significant drop-off for a variety of reasons.

• Terry McLaurin delivered a career year with Jayden Daniels under center: McLaurin put together a WR1 season for the first time in his career. However, a new season brings new challenges as he looks to replicate his excellent 2024.

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This fantasy football article series breaks down the toughest draft-day decisions facing fantasy managers, using Underdog’s average draft position (ADP) as a guide. Each installment compares similarly ranked players at the same position, using key stats from previous seasons and contextual factors — including team situation — to identify the better pick.

Today’s matchup spotlights Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin as we evaluate the top options at the start of Round 3 in fantasy drafts.

TYREEK HILL (WR15) vs. TERRY MCLAURIN (WR16)

Hill is coming off a season that fell short of expectations after being drafted as a top-three wide receiver last offseason, following back-to-back WR2 finishes in 2022 and 2023. Inconsistent quarterback play and recovery from offseason wrist surgery may have contributed to his dip in production. Still, early 2025 draft trends show drafters remain optimistic about a rebound.

McLaurin delivered the best fantasy season of his NFL career, buoyed by a significant upgrade at quarterback. He recorded four top-10 weekly finishes at the position in 2024. Despite finishing as a top-12 fantasy wideout, McLaurin is currently being drafted outside the top 15 at the position, suggesting expectations of regression heading into 2025.

INVOLVEMENT IN THE OFFENSE

Hill saw 121 targets in 2024, his fewest since joining the Dolphins and his lowest mark overall since 2019, when he missed multiple games due to injury. While it was also his lowest target rate in the past five seasons, it still exceeded any of McLaurin’s rates over that same span, including 2024. Even entering his 10th NFL season at age 31 and coming off a down year, Hill remains a near lock for an elite target share.

McLaurin’s target rate has never matched Hill’s, but he did outpace him in total targets last season, which helped fuel his most efficient and productive fantasy campaign to date. Still, some regression should be expected in 2025 as McLaurin turns 30 and faces increased target competition in Washington’s offense.

PRODUCTION AND PERFORMANCE

Hill’s 3.82 yards per route run in the 2023 regular season trailed only 2008 Steve Smith for the best mark in the PFF era, making some regression in 2024 all but inevitable. However, his drop to 1.75 yards per route run wasn’t just a dip, it marked the lowest figure of his career and the first time he’s failed to top 2.00 in that category.

McLaurin has exceeded 2.00 yards per route run just twice in his career, but he was more efficient than Hill in 2024. His biggest leap in fantasy production came via the end zone: McLaurin scored 13 total touchdowns — second-most in the league — nearly doubling his previous career high of seven set in 2019.

HIGH-VALUE TARGET INVOLVEMENT

Hill remained heavily involved in the red zone in 2024, despite posting just six receiving touchdowns, his lowest total since his rookie year. Five of those scores came on red-zone targets, but he had to share opportunities with teammates like Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane, who recorded seven and six red-zone touchdowns, respectively.

McLaurin’s red zone efficiency was exceptional. Despite trailing Zach Ertz in both red-zone targets and target rate, McLaurin caught 13 of his 14 red-zone targets for 10 touchdowns — a rate that is almost certain to regress in 2025.

Still, if Washington’s offense maintains its red zone volume — it tied for second in the NFL with 210 red-zone plays last season — McLaurin should continue to see valuable scoring opportunities.

TEAM PASSING/QUARTERBACK SITUATION

Tua Tagovailoa missed five games in 2024. But even when he was healthy, he posted his lowest passing grade since 2021. The Dolphins never seemed to recover from their 2–6 start, a slump that dragged down nearly all of Miami’s fantasy production. A reset for Tagovailoa and his top two receivers is critical if the offense is to rebound in 2025.

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders were on an entirely different trajectory. Daniels led Washington to an NFC championship appearance and earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in the process. Nearly every aspect of his rookie season helped create a strong offensive environment for McLaurin, one that the Commanders will hope to replicate in 2025.

POTENTIAL 2025 TARGET COMPETITION

The emergence of Jonnu Smith as a high-volume target in 2024 was unexpected and played a role in the reduced production from both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Looking ahead to 2025, Hill could once again face competition from two fronts: Smith remaining a key part of the Dolphins’ offense and Waddle returning to form as a dynamic playmaker still in his prime.

In Washington, Zach Ertz was already a go-to red zone option last season and figures to retain that role in 2025. However, the addition of Deebo Samuel introduces a new layer of target competition. Over the past three seasons, Samuel ranks third among all wide receivers and tight ends with 58 red-zone touches (receptions and carries combined), a trend that could further eat into McLaurin’s scoring opportunities and reinforce expectations of touchdown regression in 2025.

Tyreek Hill vs. Terry McLaurin: Target Maps (2024)

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While the final decision is yours, don’t go into your draft blind. Check out PFF’s latest fantasy football rankings to see exactly where Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin and the rest of your targets stack up heading into 2025.