Fantasy Football ‘25: The safest players to draft this season

Greetings, fantasy faithful! June is almost here, and that means the start of the 2025 NFL season is only about three months away. It’s not too early to start thinking about your drafts for season-long fantasy football leagues.

In my last column, I looked at some of the biggest fantasy football questions for the upcoming season. Today’s topic: The safest players to draft in fantasy. What makes a player a safe pick, you ask? I’m glad you asked! My basic definition is players who not only provide a high ceiling, but also a very high floor. A less technical definition is players who don’t ever keep you up at night. But let’s peel the onion a bit to see what gets a player into that rarified air.

One factor is health. Injuries are impossible to predict in the NFL. It’s a physical and violent game played by some of the biggest, strongest, and fastest people on the planet. We know going in that any player can get hurt on any play. That said, there are players who get injured (and miss games, or even entire seasons) more frequently than others. Larry Fitzgerald was always one of my favorite players to roster in fantasy. Not only was he a terrific producer, but he was as dependable as they come. He only missed nine games, total, in a Hall of Fame 17-year career. Nine! Maybe it’s just luck, but as they say, the best ability is availability. You won’t find Christian McCaffrey on my 2025 list.

Another key factor is consistency, regardless of what is going on around the player. Needless to say, most of the players on my list are on offenses that have been very good for at least the past couple of seasons. Teams with a stable quarterback situation and good coaching tend to be the best breeding grounds for consistent fantasy production. Players like D.J. Moore, Jaylen Waddle, and D.K. Metcalf are very talented, but for a variety of reasons they’ve each had inconsistent production over the past few seasons. They’ve all got good upside, but I wouldn’t put any of them on a list of “safest picks”.

The third thing I’m looking for is a proven track record over several seasons. Last year was a banner year for rookies, and I’m excited to roster any number of second-year standouts. Do I think Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Brian Thomas, Jr., Malik Nabers, Bucky Irving, Ladd McConkey, and Brock Bowers are safe picks this season? I absolutely do (to varying degrees), but we’ve only seen it for one year, and before I’m putting any of them on a list of the safest players I want at least one more healthy and productive season. The minimum to make it onto my list is two seasons. Sorry, Ashton Jeanty. Again, this doesn’t mean rookies or second-year studs aren’t relatively safe picks.

One final point: If a player isn’t listed below, that doesn’t mean I think they aren’t a pretty safe pick this season. Again, this exercise is about identifying the safest picks. An unusually large group of running backs feel pretty safe for 2025 (Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Jonathan Taylor, Devon Achane, Joe Mixon, James Cook, Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, Irving, Jeanty, James Conner, and the Lions’ two backs, in particular). But despite the anomaly of the 2024 season, running backs tend to get hurt (or lose snap share) more than players at the other fantasy positions. Only one running back makes my “safest” list, and the name won’t surprise you.

OK, let’s get to it. All rankings and fantasy points shown are for Half-Point PPR, are based on average fantasy points per game, and don’t include the final week of the regular season.

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1. Josh Allen, QB

I don’t know if most fans are aware of just how mind-blowing Allen’s fantasy greatness AND consistency has been over the past five seasons. He’s finished as the overall No. 1 or No. 2 player in fantasy for FIVE straight seasons, while averaging at least 24 fantasy points per game in each of those campaigns. Read that again, please. I’m guessing he’s the first player to do this. He also has the longest current consecutive games played streak of any NFL quarterback, at 114. That’s more than double the next player (Jared Goff – 51). Allen is the gold standard of high floor plus high ceiling, and in 1-QB leagues I have no problem taking him inside the Top-24 picks. You know what you’re getting.

While we’re talking about the safest QBs, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are also elite dual-threat quarterbacks, and they’ve been mostly lights out over the last three seasons. They’re also very safe high upside picks, although unlike Allen, both have missed a few starts due to injury over that span. Let’s include them in the “safest” list.

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

2. Derrick Henry, RB

OK fine, Henry is also the gold standard for high floor plus high ceiling. I could give you all sorts of mind-blowing Derrick Henry stats. He’s played in at least 15 games in every year of his career except one, and his RB2 finish last year was his third Top-5 finish at the position in the last six seasons. Henry is coming off a monster season with over 1,900 rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs (at age 30), and amazingly, neither number was a career high.

Henry is now 31 and normally that age for a running back would cause me to slam the brakes, but I think he’s just a different breed plus he’s now in a truly ideal situation with the Ravens, lining up in the backfield with the electric Jackson. He’s safe as a kitten until his performance says he isn’t. Henry’s ADP is currently RB6, and just outside the first round. There’s every reason to believe he’ll smash that, and again finish as a Top-5 running back in half-point PPR.

3. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR

ARSB has a huge chip on his shoulder, dating back to him going in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He can name every receiver that was taken before him, and with the exception of Ja’Marr Chase, he’s been better than all of them (yes, even better than Kadarius Toney!). He’s also been a study in consistency. He’s played at least 16 games in every one of his four seasons, and in each of the last three he’s had over 100 receptions on 140+ targets. That’s what we call a fantasy mint. Sure, Ben Johnson is gone and Jameson Williams has emerged as a legitimate WR2, but I think St. Brown is about as safe as they come in the back half of Round 1. He’s finished as a Top-5 WR each of the last two seasons, and the year before that he was Top-10. The Sun God is cash money.

4. Justin Jefferson, WR

Jefferson is another obvious name, but he’ll be catching passes from the Vikings’ third starting QB in as many seasons. I get that there’s some trepidation this year because J.J. McCarthy is essentially a rookie, but we had those same fears last season with Sam Darnold replacing Kirk Cousins, and Jefferson was more than fine (100+ catches on 150+ targets, 1500+ yards, and 10 TDs), and those who drafted him in the back half of Round 1 were rewarded. The only WR who scored more fantasy points than him was his college teammate, triple crown winner Chase. J-Jeff has also stayed healthy for the most part, playing every game in four of his five seasons. I think he has proven over and over that he’s QB-proof, and he makes my list.

For the record, I think Chase is also a very safe pick. CeeDee Lamb is another first-round WR who is also quite safe in my view — he’s got three straight seasons with 100+ catches and four straight seasons with 1,100+ yards, and the only thing that has held him back from even higher numbers has been injuries that cost Dak Prescott multiple games in both 2022 and 2024. So they’re on my list too.

Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

5. Mike Evans, WR

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Evans has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in every year of his career. Well, it’s true, and that astounding streak now encompasses 11 seasons. Evans missed four games with a hamstring injury last season but still got to the number, and you don’t have that kind of streak without staying mostly healthy year-in and year-out.

Evans will be 32 when the season starts, so age is a concern, but as is the case with Derrick Henry, I think he’s not your typical aging star and is still quite safe for at least another season (and especially at his likely Round 3 or 4 draft cost). A plus: Evans has finished as a Top-8 WR in each of Baker Mayfield’s two seasons as the Bucs’ starting QB.

6. George Kittle, TE

Kittle finished as the TE1 last season, and has finished inside the Top-5 at the position for four straight seasons. With Travis Kelce slowing down the last two seasons, Kittle has emerged as the top veteran TE in fantasy. He’s been Brock Purdy’s security blanket and top red zone target since he took over as the 49ers’ starting quarterback. With Deebo Samuel gone, the target volume should remain very healthy, even if McCaffrey can stay healthy and command his usual passing volume. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is extremely fantasy-friendly and Kittle is a main cog in it, at a position of scarcity. Kittle struggled with injuries earlier in his career but has stayed on the field in recent seasons. He’ll turn 32 in October, but hasn’t yet shown signs of slowing down.

While we are here, Trey McBride will probably be drafted a full round ahead of Kittle in most leagues, but he’s also got a very high floor and earns a spot on my “safe” list. Since Kyler Murray returned from injury in the middle of the 2023 season, McBride leads all TEs in targets and receptions.

That’s my list. If you’ve got a player to add, please put it in the comments. And keep it here for more fantasy content through the summer!