Rams could find themselves on wrong side of a Michael Penix breakout year

Albeit on a small sample size, Michael Penix seems primed for success with Atlanta Falcons

One of the biggest breaks for the Los Angeles Rams over the 2025 offseason was acquiring the Atlanta Falcons’ first round pick next year as part of a trade down from the 26th overall selection in the NFL Draft. This pick will surely help LA future-proof the quarterback position or make a splash trade for a key veteran in hopes of putting the roster of the top amidst a Super Bowl run.

But if second-year Falcons QB Michael Penix, Jr. has anything to say about it, Atlanta’s pick could be later in the first round than we’ve seen in recent years.

Albeit on a small sample size of just three full starts, Penix impressed as a rookie and seems primed for success with the Falcons.

Michael Penix is the second-year QB no one is talking about

The NFL spin cycle has spent the last couple of weeks talking up the Chicago Bears’ offseason and how the ecosystem around Caleb Williams should be dramatically better. The New England Patriots put together one of the league’s best draft classes this year as they revamp the supporting cast around Drake Maye.

Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix made the playoffs last year with the Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos, respectively, and each of their teams have continued making improvements.

That leaves Penix and JJ McCarthy as last year’s first round quarterbacks flying under the radar. McCarthy enters the 2025 season as one of the players under the most pressure across the entire NFL as he picks up the mantle and lofty expectations from Sam Darnold. We still haven’t seen the former Michigan Wolverine in regular season action, though if every other first round quarterback from last year’s first round hits the luck must run out at some point.

Penix is poised for a breakout year

Three full starts is far from a conclusive sample size; however, you can’t help but come away impressed from what Penix put on tape as a rookie. The advanced metrics from Pro Football Focus (PFF) puts his standout play into perspective as well:

Week 16 vs New York Giants:

75.4 OFF; 77.7 PASS; 80.8% ADJ COMP; 5.9 ADOT

0 big-time throws (BTT); 0 turnover-worthy plays (TWP)

The game plan in the rookie’s first start was understandably conservative, given the relatively low average depth of target figure. Still, he made the most of his passing attempts and was on target for over 80% of his throws.

Week 17 at Washington Commanders:

53.0 OFF; 54.3 PASS; 55.9% ADJ COMP; 12.7 ADOT

2 BTT; 2 TWP

The one game of the three that came versus a playoff contender instead of bottom feeders like the Panthers and Giants, though it’s not like Washington had one of the better defenses across the NFL.

Week 18 vs Carolina Panthers:

95.6 OFF: 94.5 PASS; 76.5% ADJ COMP; 11.9 ADOT

7 BTT; 0 TWP

One of the best full games by a quarterback during the 2024 season.

Full season (114 drop backs):

87.9 OFF; 87.6 PASS; 70.4 ADJ COMP; 10.6 ADOT

10 BTT; 2 TWP

Penix may spoil Rams’ hopes of an early draft pick

Atlanta started 6-3 in Raheem Morris’ first season before the wheels started to fall off of Kirk Cousins. Penix inherited a .500 football team when he took over as the starter and the Falcons finished 8-9. Still, Penix led Atlanta to a convincing win over the Giants and then forced overtime versus the Commanders and Panthers in the two final games.

Can Penix reasonably be an upgrade over a limited, late-career Kirk Cousins? I don’t see any reason why not. Cousins wasn’t giving the Falcons much production with his legs, and Penix at this point may easily be the more talented thrower of the football.

There’s also still plenty of talent to work with on the Falcons’ offense. They’ll likely lean on a run game led by Bijan Robinson. In terms of pass catchers they have Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud. The offensive line is stout and talented, even after watching center Drew Dalman leave in free agency.

The defense has its share of questions; however, this Falcons team is closer to contention than most people realize. It’s also important to remember they play in one of the weakest divisions in football: the NFC South that features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and the Panthers.

While the Rams hope the Falcons pick lands early in the draft and they can convert that into their quarterback of the future, Atlanta may already have their franchise QB and could prove to be surprisingly frisky in 2025.