The Athletic projects Rams to finish with 9.6 wins and a 60% playoff chance
The Athletic projected win totals along with playoff and Super Bowl odds for each team in the NFL, following last week’s release of the 2025 schedule.
Austin Mock created a model that simulates the season 1,000 times based on a forecasted quality of each team.
Out of those 1,000 simulations, the Los Angeles Rams finished with an average win total of 9.6 with playoff odds of nearly 60%. Mock pegged LA with a 5.0% chance to win the Super Bowl, which seems low but is still better odds than some teams who ranked ahead of them in terms of win totals.
Overall, this is how the pecking order shook out for the 2025 season:
Tier 1 – Front Runner:
Baltimore Ravens: 11.0 wins; 85.1% playoffs; 11.9% SB
Tier 2 – Over 75% chance to make postseason:
Buffalo Bills: 10.9; 83.5%; 10.1%
Kansas City Chiefs: 10.8; 80.4%; 9.9%
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.7; 83.6%; 7.8%
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.3; 74.6%; 6.0%
Detroit Lions: 10.3; 74.6%; 6.5%
Tier 3 – Best of the rest:
San Francisco 49ers: 10.2; 69.3%; 5.7%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9.7; 72.3%; 5.7%
Green Bay Packers: 9.6; 63.7%; 5.1%
Los Angeles Rams: 9.6; 59.5%; 5.0%
Key Takeaways
49ers projected to win division over Rams
There may be some truth to the idea that San Francisco’s down year in 2024 was more of a blip than a sign of their downfall. The 49ers will return Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams, and other key players that spent a lot of last season in the training room.
The Rams cannot rest idle and must treat the 49ers as the formidable threat they’ve been in recent history.
Rams have better Super Bowl odds than higher ranked teams
The Falcons being ahead of the Rams in terms of win totals was somewhat of a surprise; however, LA’s higher Super Bowl odds suggest Atlanta’s projection may be inflated because of playing in a weaker division. The New Orleans Saints were third from the bottom of the win totals and the Carolina Panthers were at 27.
Rams stand to benefit if Falcons don’t turn it around
The Falcons had 8.1 projected wins in this exercise and would finish second in the NFC South behind Tampa Bay. This is still notably better than the Saints and Panthers. Still, the Rams hold Atlanta’s first round pick next year. If the Falcons have another disappointing season, the Rams stand to benefit in next year’s NFL Draft.
