• Breece Hall’s ceiling is a top-five fantasy running back: Hall’s combination of rushing in the right situations and receiving gives him a high ceiling, which he reached in 2023.
• A lot is working against him with the New York Jets: From the new offensive coordinator to the new quarterback to the backups and offensive line, a lot of Hall’s situation isn’t ideal for him to be successful in fantasy leagues if he stays in New York.
• Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

PFF’s Fantasy Football Player Profile series delivers the most in-depth fantasy football analysis available for the 2025 season.

Using PFF’s exclusive data, we evaluate player performance, competition for touches and how teammates and coaching staffs will impact each player’s fantasy football outlook.

Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Saturday, May 17

Player performance

Breece Hall was the 36th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He was the first running off the board, and given his young age, there were high expectations for his future. Hall began his rookie season as Michael Carter‘s backup. After single-digit carries in his first three weeks, he then had games of 17 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown, 18 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown and 20 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown. In Week 7, he suffered an ACL tear and meniscus injury, which ended his season.

The Jets eased Hall into action in 2023, as he played less than 50% of their offensive snaps during the first four weeks. By Week 5, he was in more of a starter role, finishing with 22 carries for 177 yards and a touchdown. He played at least 60% of the team’s offensive snaps each game from Week 6 on. That improved to at least 70% in the last three weeks, and in Week 18, he ran 37 times for 178 yards and a touchdown while playing 89% of the snaps. His ascension at the end of the season meant expectations were sky high for 2024 as a consensus top-three running back.

His 2024 season was expected to be a step forward with another year removed from injury, but it was largely similar. He ran the ball the same amount per game for the same number of total touchdowns. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Hall was less involved in the passing game than in previous seasons. He also fumbled six times total after fumbling three times over the previous two seasons combined.

Despite some up-and-down play, at times, his career 3.4 yards after contact per attempt are the best among running backs over the last three seasons. He has one of the more extreme splits in how well he plays during perfectly blocked runs compared to not, going from 8.6 yards per attempt to 3.0. The problem is that he’s seen fewer perfectly blocked runs than most backs. He also has a very extreme split, playing better on gap runs than zone, but he’s run more zone plays 

Projected role

For most of last season, Hall played around 75% of New York’s offensive snaps. He played notably more than last season, but rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis received significant attention for how well they were playing. Hall was the lowest-graded running back of the three.

Hall’s role noticeably transformed with them on the roster instead of Dalvin Cook or Michael Carter. Hall played much more in clear passing situations and less in short-yardage situations. Allen is one of the bigger backs in the NFL, and Davis is bigger than Hall, so we can expect the limited short-yardage snaps to continue. This helped Hall run 24 routes per game, the most among running backs last season.

If the Jets retained their same coaching staff from last year, we could expect a similar split. However, New York has a new coaching staff. Josina Anderson reported before the draft that Hall was potentially available via trade. However, that might have been contingent on the Jets drafting a running back. Head coach Aaron Glenn said, “We have three running backs on this team that we’re going to utilize as much as possible,” but plenty of coaches hype up their third running back at this point of the season and end up not using them. Hall is also in the last season of his rookie contract, which also complicates matters.

Hall would ordinarily be a clear top-10 running back option in fantasy drafts, but the uncertainty around how role and how much the coaching staff likes him compared to the other young running backs leads to the risk of Hall being a bust in fantasy leagues in a major way. Whoever drafts Hall could get a steal or a bust, and there isn’t much room in between compared to most players.

Impact of teammates

The Lions’ new head coach, Aaron Glenn, brought former Detroit Lions passing game coordinator Tanner Engstrand with him to New York. It’s his first year leading an offense, so we don’t know how far off his offense will be from Ben Johnson’s. It is very easy to picture Braelon Allen taking the David Montgomery role in this offense while Hall takes the Jahmyr Gibbs role. This wouldn’t be as good as a feature role in the offense, but Gibbs has been an elite option. The Jets will need to have a good offense for Hall to have any chance of matching Gibbs’ value.

The Jets had the eighth-highest rate of using zone runs last season, while the Lions were the sixth-highest. Given that Hall plays better in gap schemes compared to zone, this could help explain why the Jets could be open to trading Hall. Most of the potential teams that need a running back are also expected to use a high zone run rate, but the Washington Commanders are the notable exception. Both Allen and Davis played better on zone runs last season.

A big difference in this offense compared to the Lions is that New York has Justin Fields at quarterback. He runs much more than Jared Goff and will also take more sacks. Generally, rushing quarterbacks tend to hurt the value of receiving running backs because they will scramble rather than check down, at times. This means Hall’s receiving production is unlikely to bounce back with Fields, regardless of what his playing time is like.

The Jets’ offensive line ranked 12th in run-blocking grade last season. It was unique in that it does a great job of producing positive run-blocking grades but also produces a lot of negative run-blocking grades. This is typically good for running backs because it helps spur long runs, but Hall’s rate of long runs has been relatively low since his rookie season. The line’s negative blocks have hurt Hall, so this is another example of why Hall could be better suited for a different offense. The Jets moved on from Morgan Moses and drafted Armand Membou in the first round, which should be an upgrade, but it fits the Jets’ general trend of having linemen who are great at positively graded run blocks and average at negatively graded run blocks.

Bottom line

Hall’s past rushing and receiving production make him a potential top-five fantasy running back. Still, it’s very difficult to predict exactly what his role will be in this new Jets offense, and there is a possibility that he’s primarily a receiving back while the other two younger players take a lot of the carries. This puts Hall outside of the top 10 running backs by ADP and makes him one of the biggest high-risk, high-reward options among the running backs from 11-20 by ADP.

Footnotes

• Statistics in tables and charts were chosen based on their ability to predict future fantasy performance on a per-game or per-opportunity basis or to describe the player relative to others at the same position.
• “Opportunities” are defined as passing dropbacks, rushing attempts and routes run as a receiver.
• Numbers are provided either by season or based on the past three years. For rookies, only college statistics are included. For non-rookies, only NFL statistics are considered, regardless of whether they played in college within the previous three years.
• As college competition is easier than NFL competition, most rookies are likely to see a decline from their historical numbers.
• Only FBS data is considered for college players and comparisons.
• Kneel-downs are removed from rushing data to provide cleaner quarterback rushing rate statistics.
• The table colors in this article range from blue (indicating good/high) to red (indicating bad/low).
• All percentiles and color codings compare the given player to others with a high sample of opportunities. Generally, the cutoff is one-third of the possible opportunities in the sample. If a player does not meet the threshold, they are still included in the comparison, though their results may appear better or worse than expected due to the smaller, less predictive sample size.
• Information on utilization classifications and their importance can be found here for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.