That is better than 3-14, but not by a lot
Whether you look at it by opponents’ 2025 winning percentage or by opponents’ expected 2025 win totals, the New York Giants face the most punishing schedule in the NFL during the upcoming season.
“There’s nothing we can do about it,” GM Joe Schoen said on the ‘Up & Adams’ Show.
So, how many games can the Giants, with a revamped defense and an overhauled quarterback room, be expected to win after going just 3-14 a season ago?
Our post-schedule release prediction was a generous 7-10. A majority of voters in our poll are expecting a six-to-eight-win season.
The FanDuel over/under of 5.5 victories has not budged since the schedule release.
Now, NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund is out with her simulated projection of the 2025 season. After running every game one million times, Frelund came up with a projected 5.4 victories for the Giants. She writes:
Trying to win at Washington (in Week 1) and hosting Kansas City (on Sunday Night Football in Week 3) in the first three weeks of the season is tough in itself. That becomes a much tougher ask if rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart ends up being the team’s starter. The Giants’ schedule is punishing overall and especially so midway through the campaign, with back-to-back road games in Denver (Week 7) and Philadelphia (Week 8) and home games against San Francisco (Week 9) and Green Bay (Week 11) sandwiched around a trip to Chicago. The difficult sequence finally ends in Detroit in Week 12.
The Athletic came up with 5.5 victories for the Giants in their season simulation. The Athletic gives the Giants a 4.7% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Browns (3.6%) are the only team with worse odds.
If I had to do it over again, I might revise my season prediction down to 6-11. It is a big ask for the Giants to come out of their first four games 2-2, as I predicted. And, as Frelund points out, the earlier Dart starts the tougher it becomes to predict a won-loss record for the Giants.
