How the Rams schedule will disguise their playoff chances

The Rams playoff fate will be an interesting story to follow all season

The Los Angeles Rams will enter the middle of the season with a conference record of either 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. Barring any ties, that’s all we will know about L.A.’s conference record, which is a significantly more important stat than how the Rams do against AFC teams.

And the Rams will have completed their entire AFC slate by the end of October. So it will be hard for anyone to gauge just how serious of a threat the Rams are for the NFC’s number one seed — or just their chances of making the playoffs are — until at least December.

Because even if they sweep their first two NFC opponents (the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and their biggest division rivals, the San Francisco 49ers), a lot can change in during the last 10-game stretch of the season, all NFC opponents.

AFC Slate

If we just look at the Rams’ AFC opponents, there is a good chance that L.A. will do very well in the first two months of the season:

• The Colts, Jaguars, and Titans all had a losing record
• The Titans had the worst record in the NFL
• The Jaguars went 4-13
• The Colts have a QB competition on their hands
• The Texans and Ravens are the two teams that had a winning record
• Houston wasn’t as formidable in 2024 as they were in 2023

Anything could happen that would make the Colts or another team far more dangerous in September than they appear to be right now, but all things being equal this is as good of a draw as any first place NFC team could hope for when the schedule is announced.

The Rams will probably face top pick Cam Ward in his second-ever NFL start for the Titans, while they might draw Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones in Week 4, and that Colts game is at home. L.A. also gets Houston at home in the opener.

Best case scenario, the Rams would open 3-0 against the AFC (Texans, Titans, Colts), which would means that even if they lose in Philadelphia in Week 3, they will still be 3-1.

The Rams then have a quick turnaround to face the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. That game is at home, although SoFi Stadium hasn’t had much of a homefield against against San Francisco yet.

Hypothetically, what if the Rams are 4-1 entering a road game against the Ravens (coming off of 10 days rest) and a Week 7 matchup against the Jaguars? For argument’s sake, say the Rams are 5-2 after seven games.

That would be a really good record!

However, we still wouldn’t know that much about the Rams yet because they would only be 1-1 in the NFC. Other NFC teams might have played 5 or 6 conference games, at least, which would mean that they have a better idea of how strong their playoff resume is at the midpoint.

How much does this matter?

A LOT!

The NFC West is likely to be decided by a small margin, either one team has won more win than second place, or they are tied and then they go to a tiebreaker.

• The first tiebreaker is divisional record.
• The second tiebreaker is conference record.

Last season, the Rams and Seahawks both finished 10-7 and they both finished 4-2 in the division. They also both finished 6-6 in the conference. The Rams won the NFC West by that small of a margin (although they did concede Week 18 because they had already sewn up the division title, largely because of having one more conference win going into the game).

The Rams also have a significant disadvantage going into the season compared to the 49ers.

Because L.A. finished in first and the 49ers finished in last, San Francisco has three dramatically different opponents than the Rams do:

• The 49ers play the 3-14 Browns, 3-14 Giants, and 5-12 Bears
• The Rams play the 12-5 Ravens, the 14-3 Eagles, and the 15-2 Lions

If San Francisco rebounds to be a decent team this season, that gives them a huge advantage with two NFC opponents and that could lead to at least one more conference win, and that could be the difference of the NFC playoff standings.

In other words, the Rams could be 2-0 or 0-2 in the NFC going into Week 8 and the standings might feel like they’re starting to settle in…but the 49ers play NFC teams in six of their first seven games. So the 49ers could be 5-1 or 6-0 if they’ve had a rebound. The teams could have the exact same record but be separated by miles in terms of tiebreaker scenarios.

This makes their Week 5 matchup all the more important too. It will help give one team a leg-up in the division going into the rest of the season.

The Rams have all the makings to be a playoff team and a Super Bowl contender this year. We just won’t really know what they are made of until they start to play more games against teams that are competing for those same playoff spots.