Looking at the schedule from 30,000 feet
The New York Giants’ 2025 schedule is now known.
We don’t know what the ultimate results of that schedule will be. We don’t know how many games the Giants will win, nor which games the Giants will win.
As we sit here now in May, the schedule does look daunting.
The Giants have two games against the two teams to face off in the NFC Championship in the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, as well as the AFC Champions in the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite finishing with a 3-14 record and last in the NFC East, the Giants have 10 games against teams who won 10 or more games last year. They also have teams who were expected to be good but fell off badly due to injury in the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers.
The Giants are unlikely to be favored in any game this year, at least not before the season starts. But there’s plenty of time to worry about all that between now and September.
For now, let’s just take a step back and see what we can take away from the Giants’ schedule as a whole.
All gas, no breaks
We’ve known since the end of the 2024 season that the Giants will have a tough schedule, at least on paper. There are only two games on their schedule that appear to be “likely wins” as we sit here in May — the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders.
The Giants start to the season — Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers — has already garnered quite a bit of attention. It’s been called “brutal” and a “murderer’s row” to start the year.
In recent years we’ve gotten used to seeing tough stretches balanced against easier stretches over the course of the season.
Fans searching for the “breather” portion of the Giants’ schedule aren’t going to find one.
Looking at the schedule, the closest thing to an “easy” stretch the Giants have is their games against the San Francisco 49ers (Week 9) and the Chicago Bears (week 10). Other than that, perhaps their week 13 game against the New England Patriots and then their Week 14 bye week.
Of course, we don’t actually know what the year will look like for the Giants. Teams we think will be good could fall off, teams we don’t expect to be strong could take an unexpected step forward.
But for now, this season looks like one long marathon from September to January with no breaks in between.
The late bye… is a good thing?
One of the first things we do when we get a schedule is look for the bye week. Traditionally, a bye week somewhere between weeks 7 and 10 is preferable. Not too early, not so late that the players are inordinately beat up by the time the bye rolls around.
The Giants’ bye is in Week 14 (Dec. 8) this year, between their games against the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders. Waiting until the second weekend of December is rough, at least on paper.
The advent of Thursday Night Football changed things.
TNF is a mixed bag as far as the quality of the game goes and the quick turnaround from the previous week tends to make the game itself poorer. However the extra rest from Thursday to the following Sunday is almost like a second bye week — a mini-bye.
The Giants’ mini-bye this year is between Weeks 5 and 6, almost neatly dividing their schedule into thirds. The Giants are also in the bottom half of the league in terms of travel distance. We don’t know how the Giants will fare this year, but they could be in good shape for a stretch run in December. The timing of their rest week and traveling half as many miles as teams like the Chargers could be a low-key advantage this year.
Can’t catch the youngsters early
The Giants have several opportunities to face inexperienced quarterbacks this year — as well as quarterbacks with new coaches and offensive schemes. However, they won’t get to see most of them until they’ve had a chance to settle in.
Their first opportunity will be when they play the Saints in Week 5. We don’t know yet who the Saints’ starter will be, but it’s likely Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler. Barring an early season change, the starter will likely have had at least a month to settle in. However, their youth and inexperience is an advantage for Shane Bowen and the Giants’ defense.
The rest of the Giants’ opponents featuring inexperienced quarterbacks in unfamiliar surroundings aren’t until later in the year.
- Caleb Williams is in his first year with Ben Johnson, but the Giants won’t see him until Week 10.
- Drake Maye is in his first year with Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels, however the Giants don’t play the Patriots until Week 13.
- J.J. McCarthy is essentially a rookie thanks to injury, but the Giants don’t play the Vikings until Week 16.
While Johnson hasn’t proven himself as a head coach yet, he’s very well regarded as an offensive mind. Vrabel and Kevin Stefanski are both very good coaches. They should have their charges comfortable and up to speed by December.
How will progress be measured?
All offseason there has been the assumption that Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll’s jobs will be determined by the balance of the wins and losses.
We’ve also known all along that the Giants face a very tough schedule in 2025, at least on paper. So squaring the circle — that the Giants’ leadership needs wins to save their jobs, but that might be out of their control — has proven difficult at best.
But what if that assumption is wrong, and the Giants’ progress isn’t measured by wins and losses?
What if John Mara instead channels the spirit of Grantland Rice and decides that it matters more how the Giants played the game than how many of those games they won?
There’s a very real possibility that the Giants find themselves in the same position that the Detroit Lions did in 2022, coming off their own three-win season. A team who probably won’t make the playoffs, but whom nobody wants to play at the end of the year. If the Giants are in every game, giving playoff teams all they can handle — and perhaps get a surprise win or two — would that be enough?
Another three-win season will likely get both fired. But what if the Giants just barely beat the Vegas line of 5.5 wins?
If the Giants win six or seven games, but end the year with wins over the Packers, Raiders, and Cowboys while taking the Lions and Vikings right to the brink, fans would likely be excited. John Mara would probably be feeling pretty good too, and that would likely be enough to reassure him that the team is heading in the right direction for 2026.
Giants’ week-by-week schedule
[NOTE: This is unofficial and subject to change until the NFL makes the official schedule announcement at 8 p.m. on Wednesday.]
Week 1 (Sept. 7, 1 p.m.) — at Washington Commanders
Week 2 (Sept. 14, 1 p.m.) — at Dallas Cowboys
Week 3 (Sunday, Sept. 21, 8: 20 p.m., NBC) — vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 4 (Sunday, Sept. 28, 1 p.m.) — vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 5 (Sunday, Oct. 5, 1 p.m.) — at New Orleans Saints
Week 6 (Thursday, Oct. 9, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime Video) — vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 7 (Sunday, Oct. 19) — at Denver Broncos, 4 p.m.
Week 8 (Sunday, Oct. 26) — at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Week 9 (Sunday, Nov. 2) — vs. San Francisco 49ers, 1 p.m.
Week 10 (Sunday, Nov. 9) — at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Week 11 (Sunday, Nov. 16 ) — vs. Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Week 12 (Sunday, Nov. 23) — at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Week 13 (Monday, Dec. 1, 8:15 p.m., ESPN) — at New England Patriots
Week 14 — BYE
Week 15 (Sunday, Dec. 14, 1 p.m.) — vs. Washington Commanders
Week 16 (Sunday, Dec. 21, 1 p.m.) — vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 17 (Saturday, Dec. 27, TBD) — at Las Vegas Raiders
Week 18 (Sunday, Jan. 4, TBD) — vs. Dallas Cowboys
