Draft Thoughts and Other Musings
The Draft
Well, that didn’t go as expected (at least on my end). As the 1st Round unfolded, I assumed the play was either a trade down or Georgia safety Malaki Starks. The latter seemed a natural fit for Brian Flores’ scheme. His exceptional recognition in run support and natural zone coverage skills would allow him to excel in the hybrid, Swiss Army Knife role that Josh Metellus and Harrison Smith have thrived in during their careers. Analyst Charles Davis often called The Hitman Mike Zimmer’s fixer: run defense being exploited? Send the fixer. Starks gave off fixer vibes. Learn alongside a Hall of Famer and hit the ground running in 2026. But, alas, he will join Kyle Hamilton in the Minnesota Vikings’ alternative reality secondary in Baltimore.
In the end, however, Ohio State guard Donovan Jackson made sense. Not in the psychologically biased, Purple-neurons activating to convince you that up is down, left is right, or that Christian Ponder was the next Drew Brees way, but objectively and rationally. The legacies of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell are inexorably tied to J.J. McCarthy – and they’re all-in (as am I). That means creating the most dominant offensive line possible. End of story. The fact that Jackson was the 3rd(!) guard off-the-board at #24 does nothing to dispel the idea that protecting McCarthy was Priority #1, 1A, B, C, D, E with the pick. We don’t know how the Vikings viewed Jackson vis-à-vis Tyler Booker and Grey Zabel, but there’s zero doubt he is an overwhelming talent with off-the-charts potential. Pro Football Focus (PFF) had him giving up just 5 sacks and 42 pressures over 1,293 blocking snaps, primarily at guard. Two sacks came in his debut at left tackle due to Josh Simmons’ injury – against Abdul Carter. Yeah, #3 overall pick Abdul Carter. After that? Brilliance. One pressure and zero, zilch, nada, Vikings Lombardi Trophy sacks allowed in 126 pass-protection snaps during Ohio State’s College Football Playoff run, with a stellar 86.8 PFF grade. This versatility allows Blake Brandel to play a critical depth role, while potentially freeing up a key spot for the final 53 in September.
Listen, I get that the Vikings had the fewest picks in the draft this year, but I didn’t foresee them being the last team to make a pick on defense (EDGE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins at #139). After the Jackson pick, I read up on the best corners and safeties available as the board unfolded, thinking that it was (absolutely) the play in the 3rd. Alas, it was not. With the selection of Maryland wide receiver Tai Felton (#1 in receptions/yards in the Big Ten/91.6 PFF grade), two things immediately came to mind: 1) See above – i.e., leaving no stone unturned to support and ensure McCarthy’s success, and 2) Jordan Addison may not see a 2nd contract as a Minnesota Viking. This selection is possible insurance. Justin Jefferson’s cap hits are $43.4 million in 2027 and $47.4 million in 2028. In years 10, 11, and 12, Randy Moss had a combined 47 touchdown catches. Just saying. I don’t expect Jefferson will be going anywhere. If McCarthy is who we think he is, he could see an extension of $500 million AAV when eligible. Seriously, $70-75 million + the way things are going. Adding a second WR extension anywhere close to the top of the market could be prohibitive. The Cincinnati Bengals will apparently forego playing defense after the Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins extensions, for example. If anyone can make it work, it’s KAM and Rob Brzezinski. And by “make it work” I mean in a responsible way, not in a Mickey Loomis YOLO way with players still counting against the cap when they’re collecting Social Security. Addison is technically eligible for an extension after 2025, and his 5th year option will certainly be picked up. If it does prove financially unfeasible, WR coach Keenan McCardell has time to work his magic to get Felton where he needs to be as WR2. I hope to be wrong on this. Addison thriving as WR1 when Jefferson got injured was one of the few highlights of a nightmarish 2023 season.
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins at #139 must be good because he’s a Front 7 guy from Georgia. It’s a cheat code. Again, I would have liked to see a corner or safety here, but at least it was on the defensive side of the ball. As a super athletic, scheme-versatile fit with experience at 3-tech, 5-tech, and 7-tech, possibilities to see the field are numerous. With the signings of Allen and Hargrave, along with the depth of Jalen Redmond and others, there’ll be time for the necessary development as a pass-rusher, and to enhance (already) strong run defense technique.
The 6th Round additions of Penn State LB Kobe King and Pittsburgh TE Gavin Bartholomew were interesting. The former’s physicality, ability to shed blockers, and run defense translates to an immediate special-teams role as necessary development continues. The latter will look to seize similar opportunities, especially since T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver are the only other TEs under contract.
We had no 7th-round selections. In other news, Rick Spielman is asking what that wet, salty discharge is developing under his eyes.
I went into the draft concerned about the secondary. The fact that the cupboard went bare here was surprising. We are fortunate to have Brian Flores, who will maximize whatever he has, but positional depth and options are never bad things. I think Mekhi Blackmon will continue to develop and build on an impressive rookie campaign before the knee injury. I think Isaiah Rodgers’ promise will translate to an expanded role. I think Theo Jackson is ready to assume many of Cam Bynum’s responsibilities. You get the point. We are an injury or underperformance away from some legit problems here. Sure, we can (and probably will) sign a veteran as insurance, but you can’t keep doing that forever. Heavy snap counts and age-related wear and tear can come due in December and January – aka the worst possible time.
NOTE: As I’m writing this, I see a lot of noise regarding the compensatory pick window closing at 3 pm CST on 4/28 and Asante Samuel, Jr. If true, that would be good. However, the injury issues are real. Adding him to the secondary will not remove the larger, underlying concerns. Ditto Jaire Alexander if the Packers release him. Ugh…
As you must grade these things, let’s call it a B-/C+. I reserve the right to adjust my grade anywhere between an A+ and F- until 2030. The point is no one knows. It’s not an exact science and the reason people who devote their entire professional lives to NFL scouting miss far more than they hit.
In the end, I trust the overall vision. I put faith in the trend. Those are in our favor. Crafting a winning roster is why KAM gets paid the big bucks, and why I still get mocked by my buddies for drafting Trey Lance as my fantasy QB1 back in 2022. I really thought he was the next Mahomes.
On that note…
The (Missing) KAM Extension
Let’s get that KAM extension done. Everyone involved has been saying the right things, and I understand slow rolling the process during the critical months of free agency and the draft. No need for extra distractions. But now it’s time.
KAM has done a brilliant job of turning over an aging roster and contracts from the Spielman-Zimmer era, highlighted by last year’s 14-win season. This was done while eating $28.5 million in dead-cap Kirk Cousins money and losing Danielle Hunter. I’m at a loss to remember a better Vikings free-agent class than what KAM achieved last spring. Mind you, I also walk into the garage and immediately forget why I went in there – all the time – so I double-checked. Yeah, it was. This year’s class isn’t looking too shabby either, made possible by freeing up approximately $60 million to (finally) shore up the trenches.
Critics point to the 2022 draft. Fair. KAM was in charge. Granted, he was hired in late January with most of the scouting and legwork done by the previous Spielman regime, but he made the picks. In my opinion, the following two drafts will more than prove 2022 was an aberration: Addison, Blackmon, McCarthy, Turner, etc. Additional solid depth players were added.
Oh…and after being on the job for approximately 57 seconds, he adeptly navigated the Jim Harbaugh drama/chaos/mixed messages to hire Kevin O’Connell. It seems to have worked out.
I fully expect the extension to get done this spring/early summer. If we get into training camp season and it’s still not done, well, then it may be time to worry. Or not. I simply refuse to believe the Wilfs would allow KAM to enter Week 1 of the NFL season without the long-term security he’s clearly earned.
Kirko Chainz Sam Howell as QB2
Given the recent speculation, I originally had an entire section of this article devoted to the pros and cons of bringing back Kirk Cousins as QB2. Phew. I’ve watched the Daily Norseman boards from afar, so I’m well-versed in the arguments of the boosters and critics alike. Valid points on both sides. I feel the truth is somewhere in the middle. In my DN contributor entry, I referred to Cousins as “The Rorschach Test.” Yeah, there’s something to that. Arguing about Kirk Cousins is like hitting yourself in the head repeatedly with an ice pick…it feels so good when it’s over.
With the trade for Sam Howell, it seems we can (probably) put the Cousins speculation to bed. With 18 career NFL starts under his belt, you can have confidence that the situation won’t be too big for him if called into action. At just 24 years old, Howell is young enough that KOC and Josh McCown will be able to coach up/correct some of the troublesome traits (i.e., accuracy/ball placement, 3.6 Int%, etc.) that have defined his young career. I mean, we just watched Sam Darnold transform into Kurt Warner – well, for 16 games at least. Does anyone think KOC won’t be able to do this?
Hey, anyone want to debate Kirk Cousins’ tenure in Minnesota!!!??? That’ll break the comment section.
