Thoughts on the Vikings’ Draft

The 2025 NFL Draft is in the books and the Minnesota Vikings emerged with a total of five draft picks and a veteran backup quarterback as well. Not a bad haul numbers-wise considering they only had four picks to begin with, but the definitive proof of whether this was a good draft for the Vikings or not won’t be available for a few years- after we see the results on the field and the development of these young players.

Most Draft Picks are Busts

As a reminder, the vast majority of draft picks don’t pan out, as I’ve detailed in previous pieces here and here. A brief summary:

• Just over 50% of draft picks never or rarely see the field in a regular season NFL football game for the team that drafted them (i.e. Lewis Cine & Andrew Booth).
• Another 25% represent either poor players that got a chance over a short period and failed (i.e. Akayleb Evans) or “average” players- undistinguished players with either ancillary contributions and/or short tenures with the team that drafted them (Ed Ingram and Troy Dye both fit in this category, for example).
• 10% are considered “good” either based on tenure and number of games started (i.e. Christian Ponder) or performance over a short period (i.e. Sidney Rice).
• 7% are considered “great” and include longer term starters who made it to their second contract (Garrett Bradbury on the low end of the range) and genuinely great players (Danielle Hunter on the high end of the range) for the team that drafted them.
• Lastly, just 1% of draft picks are considered ‘legendary’ with long and distinguished careers with the team that drafted them. Harrison Smith is the only current player in this category for the Vikings, although others like Justin Jefferson, Brian O’Neill, and Christian Darrisaw are likely to get there in time.

The bottom line here is that in a draft of five players, only one is likely to pan out to some degree, three are likely to be busts, and one other may have a short career in an ancillary role. To the extent this Vikings draft class turns out better than that, it can be judged a success relative to average.

Beyond that, success is also judged relative to the draft capital cost of the player. A first-round pick that only plays a couple years on special teams would be deemed a bust while a seventh-round pick that does the same would be a good pick compared to most seventh-round picks. Similarly, a fifth-round pick that becomes a quality starter should be judged a much better pick than a first-rounder who does the same.

So, with that backdrop, here are some thoughts on the Vikings’ 2025 draft class.

#24: LG Donovan Jackson, Ohio State

Donovan Jackson is as plug-and-play a left guard as any in this draft class. He’s not Quenton Nelson, but he’s much better than Ed Ingram coming out of college. Jackson is a smart player with good technique and near prototypical build for a guard with good length, size, and athleticism. And although he played his last nine games at left tackle due to an injury to Josh Simmons, Jackson is a left guard and played left guard in college with 31 starts at the position. He isn’t a college tackle that is moving inside and will need to learn the position. If anything, Jackson is a guard that could play tackle if need be- and did so in Ohio State’s championship run. Moreover, Jackson- playing for Ohio State- faced NFL-caliber competition and will have less of a step-up in competition entering the league compared to other prospects. Lastly, Jackson looks to be a good scheme fit with the Vikings’ zone-based rushing scheme.

I’ll do a more detailed breakdown of Jackson and all the other Vikings’ draft picks in separate pieces, but a general observation of Jackson’s college tape at guard is that he’s never overmatched or overpowered, but seldom truly dominant or overpowering. There aren’t any glaring flaws in his game, but he could use more of a mean streak and become more of a finisher. In that respect, he’s similar to Christian Darrisaw coming out- who also showed those things can improve after entering the league.

Jackson will compete with Blake Brandel for the starting job, but I would be surprised if he wasn’t the week one starter at left guard and proved to be an upgrade over Brandel’s performance last season as a rookie.

The Vikings also had the opportunity to move down with this pick. The Giants were offering a late third-round pick and change (which the Texans took to trade down from #25) for their #34 pick. While this trade could be justified based on the various trade value charts, in this draft the sweet spot in terms of talent relative to draft capital was from the late first round to early third round so picking up a very late (#99) third-round pick wasn’t all that compelling. You could make an argument, in hindsight, that drafting a Jonah Savaiinaea at #34, for example, and Cam Skattebo, for example, at #99 would’ve been worth trading down, but I’m not disappointed that Kwesi opted to simply complete the interior OL overhaul here with the best player available and not risk that with a move down.

In terms of value at #24, Jackson was ranked #37 on the consensus board, but guards were going well ahead of schedule with Tyler Booker (#31) going at #12 and C/G Grey Zabel (#32) going at #18. I would not say he was overdrafted in that context.

Overall, I’d grade this pick a B+ as arguably the best player available at a position of need and a good or fair value. I reserve A grades for exceptional value for a good prospect that might involve some maneuvering (and risk), like trading down and still getting Christian Darrisaw or moving up for Dalvin Cook after he fell into the second round.

#102: WR Tai Felton, Maryland

The Vikings traded down five spots from #97 before making this pick, adding pick #142 as compensation. The Vikings came out 15 points ahead on that deal by the Jimmy Johnson chart, equivalent to a mid sixth-round pick.

This seemed early to pick a guy like Felton, who may never be more than a WR3, but I’m guessing the Vikings see as a potential WR2. And if any team gets the benefit of the doubt when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers, it’s the Vikings. Their overall track record in that regard over the last decade or so is second-to-none.

However, most scouting reports on Felton are far from glowing, despite his impressive highlight reel. This one from PFF is fairly representative:

He has a lot of experience, and 2024 was his most productive season. Felton has decent height and length for the position but is on the smaller side at just under 190 pounds. His solid receiving production in 2024 hinged on hitches and screen passes versus off coverage. As a route runner, he lacks the nuance to really attack defenders’ leverage or set them up to create separation at the breakpoint. Felton also seems to lack the flexibility and true change-of-direction ability to be a top-tier route runner. His overall catch and contested-catch rates are lower than ideal, which does not bode well for him as a below-average separator. He doesn’t have a ton of experience versus press and struggles to get free against press-man coverage. As a blocker, his lack of weight limits his efficacy.

Also noted is that while Felton had a breakout 2024 campaign as a focal point of the Maryland offense, most of his production, including 4 of his 5 100+ yard receiving games, happened early on in mostly non-conference games. Most of Felton’s receptions came on screens and quick hitches. He does show great YAC ability and some toughness to bring down despite being under 190 pounds.

Having said all that, Felton has the measurables, including sub-4.4” speed, to be a WR2 if he’s able to improve his route running and contested catch ability. His short game YAC production could also prove to be a nice complement to Jefferson and Addison in the intermediate and deep routes as a WR3 if that proves to be his ceiling. His specialty seems to be getting the most from wide receiver screens.

Vikings’ wide receiver coach Keenan McCardell has some insight into the Maryland program as a former wide receivers coach when Stefon Diggs played there, so in addition to other scouting resources, he likely got some good intel from the Maryland coaching staff on Felton.

Lastly, Felton also has special teams experience and ability as a gunner, with limited experience as a returner. That special teams ability could help him gain a roster spot initially as a WR4 or WR5 and compete for WR3.

Bottom line, I can get behind this pick as something of a specialty, short route/screen type receiver (and special teamer) that complements others on the Vikings’ WR depth chart early on, with development potential to be a WR2.

Overall grade B grade with the trade surplus.

#139: DL Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Georgia

The first pick of the fifth-round was my favorite for the Vikings from the standpoint of getting a guy with a legit chance to develop into a quality starter on Day Three.

Ingram-Dawkins is billed as an inside-outside versatile defensive lineman, but I could see the Vikings developing him as primarily an interior pass rusher who might be able to replace Javon Hargrave in a year or two.

This scouting report from Lance Zierlein sums up Ingram-Dawkins pretty well right now:

He’s ready to do it, with the tools to do it, but is still learning how to do it. Ingram-Dawkins’ relative lack of experience shows up with inconsistent instincts in the run game and a lack of development as a rusher. However, he possesses an impressive blend of size and suddenness that allows him to attack blocks or shoot gaps. He’s a bender with excellent range and change of direction. He offers more flash than finish as a pass rusher, but has all of the tools to get after pockets when his hands and approach get trained up. He’s also scheme- and position-versatile with loads of upside, but he’s still developing and has a wider gap between his ceiling and floor relative to his fellow D-line prospects.

Ingram-Dawkings didn’t get a lot of reps in the stacked Georgia defensive line but showed improvement and impressive flashes over his collegiate career. He’s still a work in progress needing to improve as a tackler, his consistency, and instincts and awareness, but he has shown he can do it but needs more coaching and reps to develop into a more consistent and nuanced defender.

He’s also a great fit for Brian Flores’ scheme as his burst, speed, and bend will work to his advantage in stunts and twists. He’s also got great length and quick first step.

Bottom line, Ingram-Dawkins is an ascending player with all the tools to become a quality starter in time. He was ranked #176 on the consensus board with a wide standard deviation in a draft class where similarly graded interior defenders went all over the board from late second-round to mid sixth-round.

Overall grade: B

More Trades and Sam Howell

The Vikings, after trading down twice, once from #142 to #172 with Seattle which yielded them QB Sam Howell, and from #172 to #201 with the Rams, which yielded them pick #202 as well.

The trade down for Howell was the equivalent of a sixth-round pick, which is reasonable for a young quarterback like Howell (24) with 18 starts under his belt. I like the idea of the Vikings having a younger backup quarterback that O’Connell and Company can develop into something better, rather than an older vet that is what he is but with declining physical skills. Howell has good physical attributes but needs work on ball placement/accuracy issues that led to interceptions, along with some decision-making issues. Some of those issues will be helped by having a better supporting cast and others with some good coaching. A look at Howell’s 2023 highlight reel shows he can make all the throws and can make plays with his legs too. The key for his development is limiting the negatives.

Be that as it may, getting a young quarterback with a season’s worth of starts under his belt and some upside potential who can step in on a moment’s notice on the last year of his rookie deal is a great value here.

Trade for Howell grade: A

The trade down from #172 to #201 was fairly even on the Jimmy Johnson chart, although the Rams got 1.8 extra points- an early 7th round pick equivalent.

#201: LB Kobe King, Penn State

Kobe King is a classic, if a bit undersized, two-down thumper from Linebacker U. He has great instincts and awareness, is quick to shed and fill, can navigate through the garbage and tackle well. He’s an all-around excellent run defender. He also has the skillset to be a good blitzer, although he didn’t excel at that at Penn State.

However, the league values linebackers who can cover much more highly than those that can’t cover well and King has not shown that ability. A two-down thumper type linebacker is a Day Three pick in the NFL regardless of how good a run defender he is.

Having said that, King will compete with Ivan Pace Jr. – who had a poor 29.3 PFF coverage grade last season- a huge decline of nearly 50 points from his rookie year- and could beat him out. Either way, King should also be an asset on special teams.

Grade: B

#202: TE Gavin Bartholomew, Pittsburgh

The Vikings appear to have gone with a traits-based pick to be a backup receiving tight end (as opposed to a blocking TE) in picking Bartholomew. Bartholomew was ranked #316 on the consensus board- behind Vikings’ UDFA Ben Yarosek at #256 and just ahead of Bryson Nesbit at #324, so taking Bartholomew in the middle of the sixth round was a poor value for the Vikings. The higher ranked Thomas Fidone II (#184), who also had a better RAS, Y/RR, much better length, and a Josh Oliver comparable, was also on the board here, although Fidone tore his ACL on the same knee twice in college.

Bartholomew was undistinguished as a blocker at Pitt, with well below average PFF grades in run and pass blocking his last couple seasons. His pass blocking grades got steadily worse over four years.

In terms of receiving, Bartholomew’s yards per route run (Y/RR) was up and down and finished on a down note at 0.80 his senior year as his yards per reception went from 18.1 his junior year to 8.5 his senior year.

Perhaps the Vikings were not able to trade down again here, and weren’t comfortable with Fidone’s injury history, but whatever the case, Bartholomew wasn’t a good value here.

Grade: C

Overall

Overall, I give the Vikings a B grade on their draft. This year was not setup to be a blockbuster draft for the Vikings, given they had only four picks to begin with (only one in the first 96 picks) and their roster didn’t have a lot of holes at the starter level.

But the Vikings filled a key spot at left guard with Donovan Jackson, one of the best guard prospects in the draft if not the best, while adding a couple of contributors that could find a larger role in time in Tai Felton and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, not to mention a solid veteran backup in Sam Howell- which filled a key hole in the roster. Overall it stands a good chance of outperforming the average- discussed at the top of this piece.

Nationally, most media outlets did not grade the Vikings draft well, with a couple grading the Vikings’ draft the second-worst in the league. Some of the lower grades stem from the Vikings not addressing their defensive backs, whether cornerback or safety, based on perceived need there. However, I think the Vikings’ coaching staff is comfortable with their current roster in the defensive secondary- enough so where starting left guard was more of a priority- and arguably Donovan Jackson was the best player available at #24 as well. Some thought the Vikings should have traded down at #24 as well, but I’m not sure that would’ve led to a better result and could’ve backfired.

Tai Felton also seemed to be a polarizing pick- and I can understand both sides- but the deeper you look into that pick the better it looks from a complementary skillset perspective. Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins also seemed to be a bit polarizing, as he didn’t have a lot of stats/reps in college, but he does have what it takes physically and is an ascending player.

Nobody acknowledged much the trade for Sam Howell as part of the Vikings’ draft haul, which was a key acquisition as well.

Bottom line, the Vikings look to have one of the best rosters in the league post-draft, which will likely improve as J.J. McCarthy outperforms his rookie grade and both RBs and CBs outperform their low expectations as well.

Mike Clay, ESPN

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