How the Draft May Unfold Ahead of the Vikings’ #24 Pick

The NFL Draft starts Thursday night and there is plenty of buzz about which team will draft which prospect, along with potential trades. For the Minnesota Vikings, a lot will hinge on how the draft unfolds ahead of them including who they pick or if they’ll be able to trade back. So, let’s see what the oddsmakers, insiders, and prospect meetings tell us about how the draft may unfold until the Vikings are on the clock at #24.

The Easy Part

The first 3-4 picks should be fairly easy to predict, based everything that’s out there.

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#1: Tennessee Titans- QB Cam Ward, Miami

The Titans’ GM said recently that the Titans would not be trading this pick and there was a consensus on who they’d pick. The Titans have been linked to the top QB in this draft and that hasn’t wavered. They’ve also met with him three times in the pre-draft process. Draftkings has the odds of Cam Ward going to the Titans #1 at -20000, which translates to 99.5% probability. Book it.

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#2: Cleveland Browns- WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado

Hunter is the top prospect on many draft boards and has been linked to the Browns at #2 for quite a while. Draftkings has the odds of Hunter going #2 to the Browns at -900 or 90% probability. Abdul Carter is a distant second at +550. The Browns have also met with Hunter twice in the pre-draft process.

The Browns are also widely viewed as selecting a quarterback early in the draft, but are likely to wait until their second pick to address the position.

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#3: New York Giants- ED Abdul Carter, Penn State

The Giants have been widely linked to Carter for some time, have met with him three times in the pre-draft process, and Draftkings has the odds of him going to the Giants #3 at -800- an 88.9% probability. The Giants have met a few other prospects expected to go in the top ten, along with all the top quarterbacks, but Carter is one of only 4-5 top-tier prospects in this draft. Giants will likely go quarterback with their second pick.

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#4: New England Patriots- OT Will Campbell, LSU

Campbell met with the Patriots and their new head coach Mike Vrabel and is believed to be a great fit with Vrabel. Campbell doesn’t have the desired arm length for left tackle and could be moved inside to guard, but he is seen as a safe prospect and tone setter for Vrabel on the offensive line. Draftkings has him as the clear favorite here at -500- an 83.3% probability.

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Things Get More Complicated from Here

The Jaguars pick at #5 could be the first wrinkle in the first round, and after that there are a few picks that could go a few different ways. And then there is some possibility for trades, although there a lot more teams looking to trade down than up, and compensation might be relatively meager with supply outstripping demand. There is even some talk of the Jags and Raiders making calls to trade up from #5 and #6, perhaps the Raiders to jump the Jags for Jeanty, but also possibly to see if the Browns would move down and allow another team to draft Travis Hunter. That seems unlikely, but not impossible.

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#5: Jacksonville Jaguars- RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

Defensive tackle Mason Graham has been widely mocked here, but Draftkings has now put Jeanty as the favorite at -125, while Graham has slipped to +220. Charles Robinson and Albert Breer are reporting that the Jaguars could go with a skill position player rather than defense here. The Jags didn’t have a lot of Top 30 visits, as apparently the new regime leans more on scouting than prospect visits.

New Jaguars’ GM James Gladstone said this pick would be a big statement about the team’s identity going forward. Mason Graham could be the type of defensive tackle that is a tone setter, but selecting possibly the best running back to come out in recent years is likely to make more of an identity statement.

Still, this is a new regime in Jacksonville and other teams see the Jags as something of a wildcard here. But a new regime taking the more high profile player in Jeanty with their first pick would make some sense.

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#6: Las Vegas Raiders- OT Armand Membou, Missouri

The Raiders were the favorite to land Jeanty here, but with him off the board here the Raiders could go a few different ways. OT Armand Membou is the second favorite after Jeanty here at +130, but DT Mason Graham and WR Tetairoa McMillan both make some sense here for the Raiders. An edge rusher makes sense too. The Raiders haven’t met with Membou, but have met twice with Graham, McMillan, and edge rusher Jalon Walker.

If the Raiders went with Membou, current right tackle DJ Glaze could move inside to right guard, replacing Alex Cappa who has struggled.

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#7: New York Jets- TE Tyler Warren, Penn State

The Jets have met with Warren a couple times in the pre-draft process and may be looking to give their QB (currently Justin Fields) a reliable safety valve in the pass game. OT Armand Membou is also an option here, and Draftkings has him with lower odds (+170) than Warren (+370) but the Jets have also met with OT Aireontae Ersery on a Top 30 visit and could land him in the second round. Another possibility here could be CB Jahdae Barron, who new head coach (and former NFL cornerback) Aaron Glenn could pair with Sauce Gardner.

Overall, Warren might make the most sense for the Jets here, as Warren is one of the better TE prospects in recent years and the Jets have some decent options to fill other needs later in the draft.

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#8: Carolina Panthers- ED Jalon Walker, Georgia

Walker is currently the favorite to go #8 on Draftkings (-105) and the Panthers have met with him three times in the pre-draft process. The Panthers have a clear need at edge rusher (former Viking DJ Wonnum is one and the aging Jadaveon Clowney is the other) and Walker is a good scheme fit. He’s also arguably the best player available for a team with many needs. The Panthers are also making it clear they are willing to trade down here, but probably not a prospect another team is going to pay much to trade up for at this point in the draft.

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#9: New Orleans Saints- ED Mykel Williams, Georgia

There has been buzz that the Saints might go QB here, but that doesn’t seem to be matched by words and deeds coming from the Saints. The Saints didn’t send a very high contingent to Shedeur Sanders’ pro day and haven’t met with him since the Combine so it seems unlikely the Saints would draft Sanders here- or any quarterback. Williams is the favorite here at +270. The Saints have also met with him a couple times in the pre-draft process, including a Top 30 visit.

Offensive line is also a possibility here, especially as the Saints just declined the 5th-year option on RT Trevor Penning.

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#10: Chicago Bears- OT Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas

OT Kelvin Banks Jr. is the favorite here on Draftkings at +550, which isn’t a lot of conviction. New Bears head coach Ben Johnson recently talked up the tackles currently on the roster, which may be a smokescreen, but the draft falling this way to the Bears at #10 doesn’t do them any favors. Colstan Loveland is the second-favorite at +600 among those still on the board in this scenario (Tyler Warren is +370 and Ashton Jeanty is +425). The thought is that Ben Johnson wants to create a similar offense as he had in Detroit by drafting a top back to pair with D’Andre Swift or a tight end to run more double tight-end sets. He may opt to do so later in the draft, however.

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#11: San Francisco 49ers- DT Mason Graham, Michigan

Graham falling to the 49ers here is a godsend and they’d likely run to turn in their draft card. The 49ers are -140 on Draftkings to take a defensive lineman and Graham fits the bill.

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#12: Dallas Cowboys- OT Josh Simmons, Ohio State

The Cowboys are -250 to draft a wide receiver here, but Jerry Jones said a couple of trades are in the works that could be announced before or after the draft. Rumors that the Lions are not planning on exercising the 5th year option on WR Jameson Williams and that the Cowboys could be in the mix to acquire him from the Lions in trade. That would undoubtedly impact the Cowboys draft plans.

Offensive line is the second most likely position the Cowboys draft here and there has been some buzz about OG Tyler Booker. However, LT Josh Simmons is likely seen as a better value here and fills an immediate need.

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#13: Miami Dolphins- CB Jahdae Barron, Texas

Offensive line is the favorite position for the Dolphins to draft here (+130), followed by cornerback at +190. Given how the draft has unfolded in this scenario, it would seem that cornerback would be the better value here. Tough to say which corner the Dolphins prefer, but with some concern about Will Johnson’s foot injury and speed, Barron may be the safer pick.

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#14: Indianapolis Colts- TE Colston Loveland, Michigan

Tight end is the favorite position for the Colts to take here (+100) and there have been rumors that the Colts like both Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland. With Warren off the board, the Colts opt for Loveland.

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#15: Atlanta Falcons- ED James Pearce Jr., Tennessee

Defensive line is the heavy favorite here for the Falcons at -360. Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. and Marshall’s Mike Green are reportedly top considerations for Atlanta. The Falcons have met with Pearce but not Green so I went with the former. Green is said to have some character concerns that may be a concern to some teams.

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#16: Arizona Cardinals- DT Walter Nolen, Ole Miss

The Cardinals at +100 to go defensive line here and Nolen and Kenneth Grant are possibilities here that the Cardinals have met with. There has been some buzz about Nolen moving up the charts and maybe rated higher by some teams than the consensus.

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#17: Cincinnati Bengals- DT Kenneth Grant, Michigan

Bengals are -175 to go defensive line here and Grant may be the best value at this point in the draft.

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#18: Seattle Seahawks- IOL Grey Zabel, North Dakota State

The Seahawks have been linked to Zabel for a while now with this pick and are -125 to take an offensive lineman. The Seahawks have a clear need in their interior line as well.

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#19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers- ED Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M

The Bucs are +135 to go defensive line/edge here and Stewart is a guy they’ve met with and would be a good value here.

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#20: Denver Broncos- RB Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

The Broncos are -150 to go running back here and there was even some talk that they may trade up, but that has cooled more recently. Hampton is the consensus #2 running back after Jeanty.

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#21: Pittsburgh Steelers- DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon

There is some talk of the Steelers going QB here (+130), but beat writers seem to think that defensive line is the preference (+185) if their guy is there at #21. The Steelers have met with Harmon a couple times and has a comparable of Steeler Cam Heyward. There is buzz that the Steelers could opt for Shadeur Sanders here, and Mike Tomlin is reportedly okay with picking him. However, there is some PTSD with the Kenny Pickett pick and some in the Steelers organization would rather address quarterback later in the draft or next year rather than invest another first-round pick in a weaker quarterback draft.

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#22: Los Angeles Chargers- WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona

Chargers are +125 to go defensive line/edge here. The second favorite is wide receiver at +400. However, given how the draft has fallen in this scenario, the Chargers opt for wide receiver. They have met with McMillan and Matthew Golden but McMillan seems the better value here.

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#23: Green Bay Packers- CB Shavon Revel, East Carolina

The Packers are +125 to go defensive line/edge here and +195 to go cornerback, but the way the draft has unfolded cornerback seems the better value here. The Packers have met with Revel a couple times in the pre-draft process and with Jaire Alexander reportedly on his way out, the Packers have a need at cornerback.

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So, with the Vikings on the Clock…

There are a lot of interesting prospects available with the Vikings on the clock of interest to either the Vikings or in more cases other teams:

• QB Shadeur Sanders
• QB Jaxson Dart
• S Malaki Starks
• S Nick Emmanawori
• LB Jihaad Campbell
• ED Mike Green
• WR Matthew Golden
• OG Tyler Booker
• CB Will Johnson
• OT Josh Conerly Jr.
• OG Donovan Jackson

The questions for the Vikings is whether there is a prospect available here that is too good to pass up and what kind of trade interest do they get with these players still on the board.

Certainly there will be teams picking at the top of the second round that will be looking to trade up for either Sanders or Dart. Maybe the Chiefs would be interested in trading up for Conerly? My guess is that the Chiefs were hoping Josh Simmons would have fallen further, but maybe they’d still be willing to move up for Conerly, especially as both the Texans and Rams could potentially go offensive line (or quarterback) with their pick. The Rams have reportedly spent a lot of time with Jaxson Dart. The Texans pick #25 and are -400 to go offensive line.

My guess is that the Vikings will have multiple offers to trade down into the top of the second round, the question is whether the compensation will be sufficiently enticing.

It wouldn’t be too surprising if both safeties, Conerly and Jackson, and Will Johnson were drafted between 25-32, so the Vikings would have to like the board without those players to trade back into the top of the second round.

My guess is the Vikings get offers and do trade back if the draft unfolds this way and perhaps more than once before making their first pick.

Poll

How many times will the Vikings trade before making their first pick?

• 22%

  0 – they’ll stick and pick

  (36 votes)

• 52%

  Once

  (84 votes)

• 25%

  Twice

  (40 votes)

160 votes total

Vote Now