Big Blue View mailbag: Draft-day edition

Raymond Dansereau asks: I liked your most recent draft, but have one problem. If the Giants pass on a QB at 3 (which, at this point, I tend to hope they do), aren’t they basically broadcasting they’re going to take one with their 2nd pick? Which makes it tough to trade back up for someone like Dart because every other team knows they have to stay or get in front of the Giants. If you have a conviction on Dart’s combination of experience, youth, and talent, would you really risk not being able to trade up high enough in the first to get him? I know it looks good on a mock to get Carter and then a QB with pick 2, but is it realistic?

Ed says: Raymond, I don’t think they are “broadcasting” anything. Everybody in the league already knows that the Giants are quarterback-needy and will take one if/when they see the value as being right. The entire league has known that for two years.

Nobody knows how the draft will pan out. There are some analysts who think Shedeur Sanders will be off the board in the top 10, and others who think Cam Ward will be the only quarterback taken in Round 1. If you are Joe Schoen you have to read how things happen and react accordingly.

In my view, taking Carter or Hunter at No. 3 and then addressing quarterback later is the right value play. None of these guys — Sanders, Dart, Milroe, Shough — should be top five picks

Ron Corcillo asks: Most of the chatter now seems to be about the Giants taking Abdul Carter, but what about this as an alternative:

The Giants trade their #3 pick to Jacksonville for the #5 pick and Jacksonville’s second-rounder. (Matches up pretty well on the trade charts.)

Jacksonville takes Carter, the Patriots take Mason Graham, and the Giants take Shedeur Sanders at 5.

The Giants get a QB of the future, and they now have 2 early second-round picks and 2 third-round picks to address their needs on the O-line and D-line and add a couple of other quality players.

Seems like a win-win for all concerned. What do you think?

Ed says: Ron, not that long ago I looked at Jacksonville at No. 5 as a trade partner that made sense. Now, I’m not so sure I see it that way.

You get extra picks in a meaty part of the draft, which is a good thing. The Big Blue View Rules for Draft Success endorse getting more picks whenever you can.

In this case, though, you are giving up a chance to select one of the two players considered blue chip talents in this draft and taking a quarterback at No. 5 who will probably only play if the season falls apart.

If you don’t see much — if any — difference between Sanders and Milroe/Dart/Shough, or you believe Sanders will fall into the bottom half of the first round you don’t make this move. If you feel like Sanders is your guy and you are comfortable passing on the blue chip player, sure, add the extra picks.

Matt Sanders asks: Suppose the Giants take Abdul Carter at 3 and they look to trade back into the first for their QB. The Carolina Panthers are interested in improving their defense and the board doesn’t go their way. They inquire about Kayvon Thibodeaux and will trade the 8th pick for him, our 34th pick in the second round and to make the deal work they ask for Dane Belton, who they want to extend. I would make this deal for our QB. Would you?

Ed says: Matt, the good part of this deal is that it would not require surrendering the Giants’ 2026 first-round pick. Moving up that far for draft capital alone certainly would.

Thing is, why does everybody seem to be in such a rush to shove Thibodeaux out the door? No, he has not been an Aidan Hutchinson-level superstar, but he is a good player with the potential as a 24-year-old to continue to grow as a player and mature as a person.

Michael Strahan did not have his first double-digit sack season until his fifth year in the NFL. Osi Umenyiora and Justin did not accomplish that until their third seasons. Thibodeaux already has one.

Trey Hendrickson had 6.5 sacks over his first three seasons. He has double-digit sacks four of the last five years, and 35 in the last two seasons.

Personally, I’m hesitant to move on from Thibodeaux too quickly. Plus, I want to see what sort of havoc Carter, Thibodeaux, Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence can wreak together.

Now, could the Giants think differently? Sure. There is a lot of smoke from Todd McShay and others about the Giants perhaps using Thibodeaux as bait to go get their quarterback. If there is a quarterback they look at as their clear target and Thibodeaux is part of the price that has to be paid to make it happen, fine.

I am just trying to point out that it is possible we have not seen the best of Thibodeaux yet.

Russ Jordan asks: I will try to frame this as a draft strategy and your opinion as to it’s viability in the real world. As a quick summary I did a PFN mock and ended up with 14 selections with the following strategy: trade down but only a few spots to pick up additional spots in the early rounds. This parlayed the Giants picks into Milroe QB at 22 , DT, OG, and CB in 2, Edge, LB, in 3, WR, RB WR in 4 (9 picks in the top 116) OT, LB, and RB Devin Neal in 5, Riley Leonard and an OT in 7 for 14 picks. I attached the trade data which I don’t think would happen in the real world. But PFN pounded on my door with every pick. The question: Do you think this kind of aggressive trading to get more swings at bat is a valid one for the Giants. OK, I gave up Hunter at 3 but I have 14 other guys, most in top rounds.

Ed says: Russ, I appreciate the effort. This, though, is pie in the sky fantasy. Other than the fact that I would think there is a chance the Giants end up with Milroe one way or another, I don’t think this is remotely viable or realistic.

How are you going to roster 14 rookies? I would even say your first three picks, maybe first four, are fine. But, you doubled up on quarterback, running back, linebacker, wide receiver and late-round offensive tackles. What was the point of all that?

I’m sure this was fun, but something like this isn’t happening.

Evan Hanauer asks: Let’s say we draft either Carter or Hunter at 3, and Shedeur slides because of it, at which spot do you think it’d be worth giving up assets trading back in to the 1st to get him, since we’d likely have to do that for other QBs (Dart, maybe Milroe/Shough), anyway? Especially (if) we draft Hunter? For what it’s worth, I don’t see Sanders getting past Saints at 9 if he drops, and would be fine with Milroe at 34 if he’s still there.

Ed says: Evan, if the Giants like Sanders enough to give up assets for him I would say anywhere from the middle of the first round on is acceptable. Same with Jaxson Dart.

The Giants need/want/have to have a quarterback out of this draft depending upon your perspective. They will enter the draft with a pecking order of who they really want, and will just have to read the board, see if quarterbacks start to either fall or come off the board quickly and react accordingly.

If they feel like they need to move earlier than that, getting ahead of the Saints for example, so be it. That would be costly, but if there is a clear quarterback target so be it.

Bruce Mark asks: I really appreciated your recent column and all the work that when into researching the success rate of quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds beginning in 2010. Thank you! And that’s exactly why I’m very much against the Giants using their round 2 pick to take any of the QBs mentioned as potential picks if they are available. To remind your readers, only 15.6% of Day 2 picks developed into solid starters or more. I now feel very confident in stating, based on Big Blue’s own research, that whichever QB the Giants might take on Day 2 is overwhelmingly likely to be a bust. Second, in a response to a question from a reader, you recently stated, and I agree 100%, “Collect the best players you can.”

Given the lack of talent at most positions on this roster, the Giants do not have the luxury to “waste” a pick on a QB from this class, particularly in the second round. Live with the QB room you have now, improve the roster with as many of the best players as you can (thank you again, Ed) and put yourself in a better position to swing and likely miss on a 1^st or 2^nd round pick next year, when at least the overall better roster (assuming Schoen has a good draft) limits the damage from striking out with a high round QB pick. I think it unlikely that Joe Schoen takes this path, but I for one would applaud this approach. Can you please push back?

Ed says: Tricky, Bruce! Trying to use my own words to circumvent the argument you’re asking me to make.

Joe Schoen is in a tricky spot here. He is under pressure to make the team better in 2025, which is why Abdul Carter/Travis Hunter over a quarterback makes sense. He also has to, at some point, identify a potential quarterback of the future and get him on the roster. He has Russell Wilson as the starter on a one-year deal, and it makes sense to get that guy now if there is one he and Brian Daboll like.

To be honest, doing that might help Schoen and Daboll keep their jobs because they can argue for time to work with the young quarterback they draft no matter how 2025 goes.

The percentages in terms of success rate are what they are, and the perception of this quarterback class is what it is, but there are arguments as to why several of the quarterbacks in the class could be good ones.

If there is a quarterback the Giants really believe in, and they aren’t taking him just to take a quarterback, they should absolutely do it. They can’t keep kicking the can down the road.

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