Final Colts’ Draft Thoughts

So, as we try to savor this week for as long as possible, here are my thoughts on the draft regarding the Colts.

This is my favorite and least favorite week of the year. On one hand, the NFL Draft is so close and the excitement is at an all-time high. But on the other hand, once this week is over, we have nothing to talk about until another game gets played.

So, as we try to savor this week for as long as possible, here are my thoughts on the draft.

The TE Dilemma

For the past two draft seasons, the entire world knew the Colts could use a tight end. In 2023, it felt like something that could be helpful. In 2024, it’s started to feel like a necessity.

However, I wouldn’t write that Loveland or Warren pick in pen just yet.

While the Colts are probably still likely to take a tight end, I don’t think it’s signed, sealed, delivered. This isn’t me trying to drum up a new narrative or be a contrarian—I’ve actually said this for the past month or so. But when you look at the roster holistically, I’m not sure the Colts are in a position to narrow in on just one position in the first round.

I agree with Chris Ballard when he says tight ends who can block are coveted far more than the ones who are just bigger receivers. When you don’t have a guy to block the edge, it far supersedes the issue of a lack of a receiving presence. In this particular scheme, you need a guy who can block in the run game. It’s a non-negotiable. Simple as that. With the WR depth they’ve accumulated, and how Shane constructs his offense, they want to stay in 11 (1 RB–1 TE–3 WR) personnel as much as they can.

Having Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree allowed them to play in 11 personnel and run the ball, but they tipped the scale too far in one direction. They got zero receiving production, and it allowed defenses to play Cover 2 on passing downs or push coverage away from the middle of the field to try and eliminate the explosives on the perimeter to Alec Pierce. Essentially, there was no reason for them to honor the tight end in the pass game.

The Colts need a guy who can effectively do both.

I think Warren fits more of what the Colts are looking for in that department. He gives them something they don’t have. He’s a tone setter. He’s physically imposing. He doesn’t just stay attached, he can displace lineman and create run lanes. He’s too big and strong at the catch point. He makes the Colts better in the Red Zone, where they’ve underperformed the past couple of years. He can take 3 yard check downs and turn them into seven yard gains by just being too hard to bring down. He’s a better athlete than he’s been giving credit for.

Loveland, to me, is a stud. I just don’t think this scheme and ecosystem is equipped to develop him into the player that everyone says he can be. He’s a guy you want to flex out wide and run wide receiver routes. The options, the returns, anything with a high level change of direction. I think in an offense that can get heavier and flex him out wide he could cement himself as the next rookie tight end to put up elite receiving numbers. He can block in-line, but not at the level I think the Colts need him too. He’s not physically imposing. He’s more of a guy who fights to lose the rep slowly. His long arms and competitive toughness help him stay attached vs. defensive lineman with average and below explosiveness. In most offenses that’s all you need. Just enough to be functional for the defense to have to honor both. When you can earn that from the defense, then the opportunities present itself.

But I look at this offense, and I just struggle to see how they can pick Loveland at #14 and utilize him to reach the ceiling that his talent suggests is possible. The Colts don’t run a lot of 2×2 Open (Open meaning “Open Edges”) and when they did for Will Mallory it was in spurts. They did this a bit more with Dallas Goedert in Philly, because they had all-world offensive tackles that they could trust. And even then, Goedert spent the majority of his time attached to the core (around 65% of the time).

I think while Loveland is equipped to handle in-line blocking eventually, the best use of his gifts is flexed outside in a system that plays heavier and can do a better job shrinking the amount of in-line reps he takes.

Would it be the worst pick of all time? No, not at all. But I think it can be a dangerous game when we apply consensus evaluations to all 32 teams as if they’re universal. I feel better about the Colts developing Warren, and fixing the cracks in his game, than I do about the Colts morphing Loveland into a guy that he really isn’t.

The Colts have chain movers, they don’t have a punisher. That’s really my final thought there.

The Right Move at Right Guard

The Colts traded up in last year’s draft to add tackle Matt Goncalves in the third round. At his post-draft press conference, Chris Ballard was excited about Goncalves’ positional flexibility. A year later, and the Colts don’t seem too thrilled at the idea of him competing at guard.

The reason? Goncalves proved to be a significant upgrade over Blake Freeland at swing tackle. If he had to kick inside to guard, I think it’s:

1. A lot of jumping around for a player who’s poised to be the heir to Braden Smith, and
2. It effectively re-creates a need at swing tackle in a draft class where… let’s be honest, there isn’t a ton of tackle depth.

There is, however, some interior offensive line depth, which is why the consensus feels like this is a spot the Colts would address on Day 2.

At the moment, this is the one position that—if they had to line up and play a football game today—they have no plan for. That’s why I don’t think a need at TE will prohibit them from looking at Grey Zabel or even a tackle-convert like Kelvin Banks, especially with a lot of guard-needy teams lurking behind them.

Reconstructing the DL Depth

It’s funny how things can change in one offseason. The Colts’ unequivocal strength heading into training camp last year was the defensive line. Now, it’s a bit of an uncertainty. Laiatu Latu is the only defensive end under contract past this season. For someone whose M.O. is building through the trenches, that is never ideal.

Furthermore—and certainly of interest to me—the Colts are no longer running the Gus Bradley defense. How they need to play up front has changed. They are moving from an attacking, penetrating style of defense that’s predicated on get-off and first-step explosiveness, to a react-and-attack system predicated on controlling blocks and gaps at the point of attack. That typically requires more size up front. I think the Neville Gallimore signing was indicative of the type of depth player they’re looking for.

The Colts have Buckner and Stewart, who are so gifted they’re essentially scheme-proof, but they’re going to need more depth at both tackle spots—as well as the defensive end position. I expect the Colts to add at least two, potentially three, new faces to Coach Partridge’s room.

Linebacker

One player that never made sense to me when discussing potential options for the Colts at 14 was Jihaad Campbell. It’s nothing about Jihaad the player—he’s a stud.

But Chris Ballard and company have had a proven process for drafting and developing linebackers, particularly on Day 2 and 3. Good off-ball linebackers can come from anywhere—Zach Baun being the most recent example.

I think the ultimate reality here is while there are some really good players early in the draft, the Colts feel like they can find a productive player later in the draft after they’ve addressed more pressing needs.

Quarterback

I think we all know the Colts are destined to take a quarterback at some point in the draft. I don’t know when, but it will be somewhere from Round 1 to Round 7. I think early on Day 3 makes a lot of sense depending on how the board shakes out.

I think there’s a lot of mid-round QB’s in this draft who are pretty intriguing, provided you’re willing to accept that they’re just a mid round QB.

I really like Kyle McCord, I think his story is really unique and shows some resiliency. He won at Ohio State, lost one game to Michigan, and was kicked to the curb. He then went to Syracuse and won.. and he didn’t play with a lot of big leads either. He’s got a live arm and I think there’s something really intriguing there. You don’t see a lot of QB’s do what he did at a program like Syracuse.

Final Thoughts

I think you’d be really happy if Warren, or even Loveland, fell into your lap. I do think, however, the most pressing need for this team is still the trenches. Both sides of the ball. Probably will be like that every year. The teams that don’t keep adding, are the teams that keep underachieving.