Should the Giants draft Abdul Carter?

An elite player in a year the draft is deep at his position

New York Giants fans have inhabited a world of diminished expectations the last couple of years. Battered by the collapse of the 2022 playoff team as soon as the 2023 season began. Eying a top three 2024 draft pick only to have it ruined by Tommy DeVito and Tyrod Taylor late-season heroics. Having the 2025 top pick slip through their hands late in the season with a meaningless victory over Indianapolis.

Now, having hoped for Cam Ward but seeing all reports having him go to Tennessee at No. 1, then becoming excited about Travis Hunter before hearing that Cleveland is increasingly likely to take him at No. 2, some fans may have become resigned to being disappointed again come the last week of April. They could draft Shedeur Sanders, but increasingly the feeling is that he would be a stretch at No. 3.

That leaves Penn State edge defender Abdul Carter. Carter generally seems to create less excitement among Giants fans because (a) he doesn’t play offense, which is seen as the Giants’ greatest weakness, (b) he is perceived not to address a need on a team that already has Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux and signed Chauncey Golston in free agency.

The only thing I can say about the first point is that if social media are any indication, people criticize Joe Schoen for drafting for need rather than taking the best player available. How that jibes with his selection of Malik Nabers rather than one of the quarterbacks on the board last year, I don’t know. But if Ward and Hunter are off the board, Carter is the BPA.

Regarding the second point, how many edge rushers are too many? Let’s consult the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

The Eagles already had veterans Brandon Graham (now retired) and Josh Sweat, and they used a first round draft pick on Nolan Smith in 2023. Enough edge rush? Apparently not, because in 2024 they signed Bryce Huff to a 3 year, $51M free agent contract. Then they used their Round 3 2024 pick on Jalyx Hunt. All of this on a team that had used high first round picks on interior defensive linemen Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter in successive years and already had third rounder Milton Williams from the 2021 draft. Even if Schoen picks up Thibodeaux’s fifth-year option, you can never have too much pass rush, and having Carter would put Schoen in a more advantageous position if he decides that he wants to extend Thibodeaux.

The larger question is really: How good is Abdul Carter? Coming out of Penn State and wearing No. 11, it was inevitable if unfortunate that he’d be labeled the next Micah Parsons. And indeed, Parsons has been mentoring him:

To some extent it’s an unfair comparison – at this point at least, Carter does not appear to be as strong as Parsons, nor has he developed the breadth of moves that Parsons has. Still, there are remarkable similarities between their careers beyond the school and uniform number. Here are Parsons’ career college numbers:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Head coach James Franklin played Parsons mainly in the box as an off-ball linebacker, even occasionally in the slot. He only rushed the passer 135 times over two seasons, though more often in his second year. Maybe Franklin should have played him on the edge more often, considering that over two years Parsons had pressures on 36 of 135 pass rush snaps (27%).

When Parsons got to Dallas, things weren’t all that much different, at least initially:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn played Parsons as a linebacker more than half of the time as a rookie in 2021. Actually it varied from game to game: In some games Parsons would be on the edge all or most snaps, in other games in the box all or most snaps. In 2022 Quinn came to his senses, letting Parsons rush off the edge most of the time, and by last season, with Quinn now in Washington, he had all but stopped playing linebacker. As a pro Parsons has recorded a pressure on 19% of his pass rush snaps – lower than at Penn State but still excellent.

Carter’s college career, a year longer than Parsons’ due to the pandemic, evolved similarly but more dramatically:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

As with Parsons, Franklin played Carter mostly at linebacker his first two seasons. Then in his final season, he finally made him mostly an edge defender, and Carter exploded. That’s one advantage Carter will have over Parsons – he’s gotten to learn the edge position for a full season in college before facing NFL offensive linemen. Carter didn’t have as much pass rush production in college as Parsons (19%), but it was still pretty good.

Carter’s one weakness – if it can be called that – is his run defense. Carter’s PFF run defense grade was an above-average 78.2 in 2024 but was only tied for fifth among edge defenders entering the draft:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Looking at the details, it’s a mixed bag. The glaring things are his 13.3% missed tackle rate and seven penalties. On the other hand, his average depth of tackle (AVDT) was an outstanding 0.6 yards, best in the nation among edge defenders.

The other question about Carter coming out of college (assuming that the stress reaction in his right foot that was revealed at the Combine will heal without surgery) is whether he is so much better than the rest of what looks like a pretty deep field of edge defenders that it is the best use of the No. 3 pick on him. Parsons answered any questions about whether he was worth the No. 11 pick in his rookie year: His Pro Football Focus pass rush grade of 93.0 was 16.5 points higher than any other rookie pass rusher; his 14 sacks, despite spending some of his season at linebacker, were 4 more than second-place finishers Jaelan Phillips and Azeez Ojulari. In his final college year, though, Parsons’ PFF pass rush grade of 86.8 was only five points higher than those of Odafe Oweh and Yetur Gross-Matos, and his five sacks were the same as Oweh’s and six less than Gross-Matos’ – albeit in many fewer pass rush snaps (94 vs. 207 and 330).

For Carter the situation is less clear. There are no fewer than 17 edge defenders projected to be drafted in the first three rounds in the NFL Mock Draft Database Consensus Big Board:

Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database

Carter ranks first among this group in PFF pass rush grade, but only barely, and he was close to the top but not necessarily first in 2024 in metrics such as total pressures, sacks, and pass rush productivity (pressure percentage with quarterback hits and hurries weighted only half as much as sacks):

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Despite this depth, though, Carter routinely sits at the top of this group in every single ranking I’ve seen by analysts leading up to the draft. The Giants have few elite players, and many people believe that elite players are what brings a team a championship. Last year they stayed at No. 6 and took Malik Nabers, a need for sure but also arguably one of the top 5 players in that draft and probably the BPA when they drafted. They could have passed on Nabers, drafted a quarterback, and taken a wide receiver in a later round in a deep draft at that position.

Now the Giants still need a long-term answer at quarterback, and so Shedeur Sanders is a possibility, though many believe he is not worth that high a pick. Defensive tackle Mason Graham is also sitting there just below the top group on most big boards, and IDL is another glaring need for the Giants.

If Ward and Hunter are off the board at No. 3, what should the Giants do?