Have recent first round trade-ups been worth it?

Fans hate the idea of trading up, but how often is it worth it?

Should the Los Angeles Rams trade up in the first round of the draft if there’s a prospect in their range who they highly covet? Most fans would say that trading up is the death knell to team success and a sacrifice never worth the pay off, but that’s probably because we only remember the BIG trades.

When in reality, most first round trades cost relatively little to move up and at times have produced the best players and fits of our time.

Yes, we will never forget Trey Lance and Bryce Young. But did you forget that Tristan Wirfs, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Trent McDuffie, Will Anderson, and Jalen Carter were also trade ups? The price for the Eagles to secure Carter, one of the top five under-25 players in the NFL today?

A fourth round pick.

So should the Rams trade up? Who knows!

But we’re going to make better decisions and form better opinions when we have the all the information. Here are all the first round trade-ups in the last 5 years.

I did not include trades that were essentially for players, these are simply draft day decisions to move up for a certain prospect.

2020

1.13 – RT Tristan Wirfs, Bucs

Tampa Bay traded picks 14 and 117 for 13 and 245.

1.23 – LB Kenneth Murray, Chargers

L.A. traded picks 37 and 71 for 23. Incidentally, pick 71 ended up being All-Pro nose tackle Justin Madubuike, a much better player than Murray.

1.25 – WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

San Francisco traded picks 31, 117, and 176 for 25.

1.26 – QB Jordan Love, Packers

Green Bay traded picks 30 and 136 for 26.

Notes

We’re not really concerned with top-10 draft trades, right? The Rams pick 26th and maybe at most they’ll move up 10 spots if they really like someone. There weren’t any deals totally like that in 2020, but we can see that the Chargers had to give up a third round pick for Murray to go from 37 to 23.

If the Rams wanted to move up from, say, 26 to 21, it might only cost a fourth round pick.

2021

1.3 – QB Trey Lance, 49ers

San Francisco traded picks 12, a 2022 first (29th), a 2022 third (102), and a 2023 first (29) for pick 3.

1.6 – WR Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins

Miami traded picks 12, 123, and a 2022 first (15th) for 6 and 156. Incidentally, pick 12 (Micah Parsons) was involved in both of these first two deals, initially going from the 49ers to the Dolphins, then going to the Eagles, and eventually ending up with the Cowboys.

1.10 – WR DeVonta Smith, Eagles

Philadelphia traded picks 12 and 84 for pick 10.

1.11 – QB Justin Fields, Bears

Chicago traded picks 20, 164, a 2022 first (7th) and a 2022 fourth (112) for 11.

1.14 – G Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jets

New York traded picks 23, 66, and 86 for 14 and 143.

Notes

Funny enough, nobody traded up for Micah Parsons.

Here we have a team moving up from 23 to 14 for an offensive lineman, a move similar to something L.A. might like to pull off. Let’s say that TE Tyler Warren is available at 14, should the Rams try to move up for him?

If the cost is similar, it might take both third round picks to do it, with L.A. probably getting a 5th or something else in return. I know how much fans would hate that, but maybe Warren is just barely good enough to justify it?

The risk: The Jets traded up for Vera-Tucker, a good guard. The Vikings moved down and used that pick on Christian Darrisaw, a better offensive lineman and also a tackle.

2022

1.11 – WR Chris Olave, Saints

New Orleans traded picks 16, 98, and 120 for 11.

1.12 – WR Jameson Williams, Lions

Detroit traded picks 32 (from the Rams), 34, and 66 for 12 and 46.

1.13 – DT Jordan Davis, Eagles

Philadelphia traded picks 15, 124, 162, and 166 for 13.

1.21 – CB Trent McDuffie, Chiefs

Kansas City traded picks 29, 94, and 121 for 21.

1.23 – CB Kaiir Elam, Bills

Buffalo traded picks 25 and 130 for 23.

1.26 – EDGE Jermaine Johnson, Jets

New York traded picks 35, 69, and 163 for 26 and 101.

1.27 – LB Devin Lloyd, Jaguars

Jacksonville traded picks 33, 106, and 180 for 27.

Notes

It was a busy day. There were 7 trades, none in the top-10, and there are a lot of good players here: Olave, McDuffie, and Johnson are Pro Bowlers, while Williams and Davis could definitely get there.

In fact, you could argue that the draft GOT BETTER after the top-10, including other names like:

• Kyle Hamilton at 14
• Tyler Smith at 24
• Tyler Linderbaum at 25
• George Karlaftis at 30

It’s kind of amazing that the Lions were able to move up that far while kind of only giving up an early second round pick.

2023

1.1 – QB Bryce Young, Panthers

Carolian traded picks 9, 61, and 2024 first (1st overall), and a 2025 second for 1.

1.3 – EDGE Will Anderson, Texans

Houston traded picks 12, 33, a 2024 first (27), and a 2024 third (90) for picks 3 and 105.

1.6 – OT Paris Johnson, Cardinals

Arizona traded picks 12, 34, and 168 for picks 6 and 81.

1.9 – DT Jalen Carter, Eagles

Philadelphia traded picks 10 and a 2024 fourth for 9.

1.14 – OT Broderick Jones, Steelers

Pittsburgh traded picks 17 and 120 for 14.

1.24 – CB Deonte Banks, Giants

New York traded picks 25, 160, and 240 for 24.

1.25 – TE Dalton Kincaid, Bills

Buffalo traded picks 27 and 130 for 25.

Notes

Okay, so it doesn’t get any worse than trading a first round pick and it ends up being the top pick in the draft. Not just that, but 2024’s first pick was almost certainly more valuable than 2023. Even still, the Panthers at least know that Bryce Young is better than Trey Lance and they certainly pray that he can catch up to/surpass C.J. Stroud.

The pick will always be controversial because of his size, but the premise of the decision — trading up for a QB — has at times proven to be a good idea. It’s a huge risk and in this case it probably won’t entirely pay off for Carolina, but Young at least deserves to have a 24th birthday before we finish judging the move.

Then the Texans took a gamble by trading a future first for Will Anderson and he now has 18 sacks in two seasons.

Carter falling to 9 looks like 6-7 teams overthought the draft, but who knows, maybe he could still have those off-field issues. The Steelers traded up for Jones, but so far it looks like the team that moved down (Patriots) got the better prospect (Christian Gonzalez).

2024

1.10 – QB J.J. McCarthy, Vikings

Minnesota traded picks 11, 129, and 157 for 10 and 203.

1.17 – EDGE Dallas Turner, Vikings

Minnesota traded picks 23, 167, a 2025 third, and a 2025 fourth for 17.

1.24 – CB Terrion Arnold, Lions

Detroit traded picks 29 and 73 for 24 and a 2025 seventh.

1.28 – WR Xavier Worthy, Chiefs

Kansas City traded picks 32, 95, and 221 for 28, 133, and 248.

1.32 – WR Xavier Legette, Panthers

Carolina traded picks 33 and 141 for 32 and 200.

Notes

We know, it’s too early to judge. But the costs that will pertain to L.A. are trading a 23 for 17 and having to give up a third and a fourth the next year. In this same class, the Rams traded a future 2 to move up for Braden Fiske and that worked out great.

Dallas Turner seemed to get better by the end of his first season.

How would you grade these trades?

Trade up targets by position:

QB: Love, Lance, Fields, Young, McCarthy

WR: Aiyuk, Waddle, Smith, Olave, Williams, Worthy, Legette

TE: Kincaid

OL: Wirfs, AVT, Johnson, Jones

LB: Murray, Lloyd

CB: McDuffie, Elam, Banks, Arnold

EDGE: Johnson, Anderson, Turner

DT: Davis, Carter

NONE: RB, C, S

You could also argue that Vera-Tucker might have been a tackle, so that would make no guards. Teams have traded up for 17 offensive players compared to only 11 on defense. Seven of those players were receivers and 5 were quarterbacks.