Here are the numbers since 2010, and they are not encouraging
With the New York Giants still in the quarterback market, I am updating a series of posts I did last year looking at the success rates of quarterbacks drafted on Day 1, Day and Day 3 of the NFL Draft.
Today, we look at Round 1. The bulk of this post appeared on Big Blue View prior to the 2024 NFL Draft. It has been updated to reflect another year’s worth of data.
We have often talked about the hit rate, the percentage of time NFL teams get it right when drafting a quarterback in Round 1, being somewhere between 30-40%. Well, let’s show the work.
Below, you will find a year-by-year list of quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 since 2010. There have been 49. Bill Barnwell of ESPN did a historical look of his own at quarterback hits and misses in the draft in 2024 and provided a tiered grading system for breaking down the success or failure level of each pick.
I liked it and have adopted it, with my own judgment for which category each selected quarterback falls into.
Here is how Barnwell tiered the quarterbacks:
Hall of Famers are players who have either already made it to the Hall of Fame or have better than a 50/50 chance of making it to Canton someday.
Franchise quarterbacks are players who locked down their team’s primary job and played at a Pro Bowl level for a significant period of time, stretching well beyond their rookie deal, even if they aren’t going to be a Hall of Famer one day.
Solid starters are quarterbacks who were regulars for their teams without ever really challenging the upper echelon of the position, either because of a lack of ceiling, injury or other factors. These players might or might not have earned a second deal with their teams.
Low-end pro careers would include passers who bounced around the NFL as borderline starters or high-end backups without locking down a starting job for a significant period of time. Again, injuries could factor in here.
Disappointments are players who don’t fit into any of the above categories. They might have never earned significant NFL playing time, like Paxton Lynch, or struggled before ending their NFL career quickly, like Johnny Manziel. Teams might consider a solid starter or a low-end pro career as a disappointment depending on where they were drafted, but this group of players basically returned nil value given that it included all first-rounders.
I am including quarterbacks from the 2023 and 2024 draft classes, although there isn’t a big enough body of work to make definitive judgments on those players. That adds an “incomplete” category for several quarterbacks. Consider where I have them listed the 2023 and 2024 draftees as “for now” placements.
By the way, I dropped Daniel Jones from the “solid starter” category to the “low-end pro careers” category.
Round 1 QBs
2010
No. 1 — Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams)
No. 25 — Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1 (Bradford)
Disappointments: 1 (Tebow)
2011
No. 1 — Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
No. 8 — Jake Locker (Tennessee Titans)
No. 10 — Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 12 — Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1 (Newton)
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 3
2012
No. 1 — Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
No. 2 — Robert Griffin (Washington Redskins)
No. 8 — Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
No. 22 — Brandon Weeden (Cleveland Browns)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1 (Luck)
Solid starters: 1 (Tannehill)
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 2 (Weeden, Griffin)
2013
No. 16 — EJ Manuel (Buffalo Bills)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1
2014
No. 3 — Blake Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 22 — Johnny Manziel (Cleveland Browns)
No. 32 — Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1 (Bortles)
Disappointments: 2
2015
No. 1 — Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
No. 2 — Marcus Mariota (Tennessee Titans)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 2
Disappointments: 0
2016
No. 1 — Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)
No. 2 — Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles)
No. 26 — Paxton Lynch (Denver Broncos)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1 (Goff)
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1 (Wentz)
Disappointments: 1 (Lynch)
2017
No. 2 — Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago Bears)
No. 10 — Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
No. 12 — DeShaun Watson (Houston Texans)
Future Hall of Famers: 1 (Mahomes)
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 2 (Watson, Trubisky)
2018
No. 1 — Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns)
No. 3 — Sam Darnold (New York Jets)
No. 7 — Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
No. 10 — Josh Rosen (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 32 — Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
Future Hall of Famers: 2 (Allen, Jackson)
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 2 (Mayfield, Darnold … I’m putting Darnold here based on 2024)
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1 (Rosen)
2019
No. 1 — Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 6 — Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
No. 15 — Dwayne Haskins (Washington)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 1 (Murray)
Low-end pro careers: 1 (Jones)
Disappointments: 1 (Haskins)
2020
No. 1 — Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
No. 5 — Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
No. 6 — Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
No. 26 — Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 4
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 0
2021
No. 1 — Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 2 — Zach Wilson (New York Jets)
No. 3 — Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers)
No. 11 — Justin Fields (Chicago Bears)
No. 15 — Mac Jones (New England Patriots)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 1 (Lawrence)
Low-end pro careers: 1 (Fields)
Disappointments: 3 (Wilson, Lance, Jones)
2022
No. 20 — Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1
2023
No. 1 — Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
No. 2 — C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
No. 4 — Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 0
Incomplete: 2 (Young, Richardson … Young is trending toward ‘solid starter,’ but I can’t put him there yet)
2024
No. 1 — Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
No. 2 — Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
No. 3 — Drake Maye (New England Patriots)
No. 8 — Michael Penix (Atlanta Falcons)
No. 10 — J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings)
No. 12 — Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)
Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1 (Daniels)
Solid starters: 2 (Maye, Nix)
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 0
Incomplete: (Williams, Penix, McCarthy … I need to see Williams in a better situation before even beginning to pass judgment)
Totals
Future Hall of Famers: 3
Franchise QBs: 9
Solid starters: 7
Low-end pro careers: 7
Disappointments: 18
Incomplete: 5
That’s 19 out of 49 drafted quarterbacks currently in the ‘solid starter’ or above category, a hit rate of 38.8%. If you are looking for Hall of Fame or absolute franchise quarterback as your standard, that’s 12 of 49, or 24.5%. Take out the five incompletes, those percentages are 44.1 and 27.2.
The disappointments category has 18 names or 36.7%. Combine that with the seven quarterbacks in the ‘low-end’ category and that is 51% who did not or have not yet given teams what they hoped to get out of a first-round quarterback.
This means the historical expectation would be that if three quarterbacks are taken in Round 1, only one will have a career justifying the draft capital used on them. Two if teams are lucky.
Barnwell summed up what teams needing or wanting a quarterback should do, and what they should expect, this way:
… knowing history shouldn’t stop teams from drafting quarterbacks. Taking a quarterback in Round 1 is more valuable now than it has ever been, arguably, in the history of the game … Just have a healthy expectation for what might happen next.
I can’t argue. If you have a need and a chance, you take the swing. Odds are, though, that you are going to get it wrong.
