NFL Draft: How do experts tier quarterbacks over past two drafts?

Let’s take a look

During the buildup to the 2025 NFL Draft much of the discussion has been that this year’s quarterback class does not measure up to the historic 2024 class that saw six quarterbacks taken in the draft’s first 12 selections.

Well now, thanks to work done by two of the best analysts in the business, we can see how they rank the quarterbacks. Todd McShay of The Ringer has quarterback prospects ranked pre-draft for the last two seasons. Matt Waldman of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio has them ranked for the last three years, but to keep this nice and tidy I will only use Waldman’s rankings from 2024 and 2025.

Let’s look at each, with a few thoughts.

McShay’s tiers

Tier 1 (Elite)

Caleb Williams (96 overall grade)
Jayden Daniels (96)
Drake Maye (95)

Tier 2 (Immediate impact)

J.J. McCarthy (92)
Cam Ward (92)

That makes Ward a top prospect in either class.

Tier 3 (Immediate contributor)

Michael Penix (90)
Bo Nix (90)
Shedeur Sanders (90)
Jaxson Dart (90)

Penix was selected No. 8 by the Atlanta Falcons. Nix was taken No. 12 by the Denver Broncos and led that team to the playoffs. McShay gives Sanders and Dart identical grades to them.

Looking purely at this, could you justify taking Sanders at No. 3? Sure. The Giants would absolutely be justified to swing a trade to get back into the first round and draft Dart, provided the team’s 2026 first-round pick is not part of the deal.

Tier 4 (‘Plus’ future starter)

Tyler Shough (88)

The oldest quarterback prospect in the class gets a tier all to himself.

Tier 5 (‘Solid’ future starter)

No one.

Tier 6 (‘Adequate to solid’ NFL starter)

Will Howard (79)
Jalen Milroe (76)
Quinn Ewers (72)
Spencer Rattler (71)

Waldman’s rankings

I’m stripping the 2023 class from Waldman’s rankings. Here is what the last two drafts look like.

1. Caleb Williams
2. Michael Penix Jr.
3. Cam Ward
4. Bo Nix
5. Jalen Milroe
6. Jayden Daniels
7. Shedeur Sanders
8. Kurtis Rourke
9. J.J. McCarthy
10. Drake Maye
11. Jaxson Dart
12. Tyler Shough
13. Will Howard
14. Spencer Rattler
15. Quinn Ewers
16. Kyle McCord
17. Michael Pratt
18. Dillon Gabriel

I included Waldman’s rankings for a couple of reasons. It’s good to see more than one opinion. It is also good to see how two quality evaluators can differ. No one sees things exactly the same way all the time.