Rethinking the 2025 NFL Draft: Lottery scenarios that would reshape the league
2YPJGWA Colorado wide receiver Travis Hunter (12) in the second half of an NCAA college football game Friday, Nov. 29, 2024, in Boulder, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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- NFL draft lottery could dramatically reshape team strategies: By giving each of the 18 non-playoff teams an equal shot at the No. 1 pick, a lottery system would create massive variability in draft outcomes. In this mock exercise, the Cowboys land Travis Hunter at No. 1 in one scenario, the Patriots pair Drake Maye with Hunter in another, and the Raiders take a swing on a quarterback again with Cam Ward.
- Quarterback runs, receiver pairings and edge reinforcements vary wildly: In different lottery outcomes, teams like the Giants, Jets and Saints address quarterback needs early with picks of Ward or Shedeur Sanders, while others like the 49ers choose to invest in elite weapons or protect their signal-callers.
- 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 23 minutes
What if the NFL adopted an NBA-style lottery system for the top of the draft? Where instead of seeding teams by record — where the worst teams are rewarded with the highest picks — the 18 non-playoff teams would each receive an equal chance at the No. 1 overall selection.
The argument favoring a lottery system is that it removes the incentive to lose games for better draft positioning and discourages teams from “tanking.” Personally, I don’t believe tanking is a real phenomenon in the NFL. While fan bases may root for losses in hopes of landing a premier draft pick — particularly a top quarterback — and ownership or front offices might quietly prefer better draft positioning, it runs counter to the mindset of coaches and players. Still, the idea of a lottery-style draft for non-playoff teams is a fun thought experiment.
For this article, each of the 18 non-playoff teams was given an equal chance at the No. 1 pick — no weighting based on record. As you can imagine, that format creates some dramatic shakeups at the top of the draft.
I often say that NFL mock drafts are just fan fiction for football junkies — and the idea of a draft lottery simply takes that concept to another level. Below are 17 wildly different scenarios where a new non-playoff team lands the No. 1 overall pick, thanks to a randomized lottery system. For simplicity, only the top 18 picks are shown in each mock draft, with the 14 playoff teams left in their traditional order.
Scenario 1: The Dallas Cowboys have the No. 1 pick
The last time the Dallas Cowboys held the No. 1 overall pick was in 1991, when they selected Russell Maryland. In this scenario, they use that top selection to grab the star of the 2025 draft class: Travis Hunter. Pairing Hunter with CeeDee Lamb would give the Cowboys a dynamic and versatile duo of playmakers on offense.
The Jets, meanwhile, stay put and land the top quarterback on the board in Cam Ward, while the Titans secure a signal-caller of their own two picks later in Shedeur Sanders. The 49ers continue their trend of valuing athletic offensive tackles, and Armand Membou fits that mold perfectly with his elite movement skills. The Jaguars, sticking to a familiar strategy, bolster their edge rotation by adding Abdul Carter to their growing group of first-round pass rushers.
- Dallas Cowboys: WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado
Scenario 2: The New England Patriots have the No. 1 pick
The Patriots haven’t held the No. 1 overall pick since 1993, when they selected Drew Bledsoe. With Drake Maye in place as their quarterback of the future, the next step is surrounding him with talent — and in this scenario, they land versatile playmaker Travis Hunter as his potential WR1.
The Jets stay put and still manage to secure the top quarterback in the draft, while the Falcons also stand pat and land the best edge defender in the class, addressing a critical need. The Dolphins use their top pick to address their most pressing concern along the offensive line, selecting Armand Membou. The Colts opt for value and select Mason Graham, believing he’s the best player available.
Scenario 3: The San Francisco 49ers have the No. 1 pick
The last time the San Francisco 49ers held the No. 1 overall pick was in 2005, when they selected Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. With Brock Purdy soon due for a major extension, the 49ers could opt for a cheaper alternative at quarterback. But in this scenario, they commit to Purdy, make the payday work, and instead give him a dynamic weapon in Travis Hunter — his future WR1.
The Bengals land the top edge defender in the draft to pair with Trey Hendrickson, while the Seahawks secure their quarterback of the future in Cam Ward. Sam Darnold can start as needed while Ward develops. The Saints follow a similar path, taking Shedeur Sanders as their long-term option while Derek Carr remains the short-term starter. The Raiders bolster their offense with elite running back prospect Ashton Jeanty, who can create yards on his own.
Scenario 4: The New York Giants have the No.1 pick
The Giants haven’t held the No. 1 overall pick since 1965, when they selected Tucker Frederickson. In this scenario, they finally land their top choice at quarterback by taking Cam Ward, pairing him with Malik Nabers to form an exciting young duo in New York.
At No. 2, Seattle seizes the opportunity to address its long-term quarterback situation by selecting Shedeur Sanders. Miami fills its biggest need by taking its top choice on the offensive line in Armand Membou. Arizona has its pick of the draft’s defensive prospects and selects Travis Hunter, while Chicago lands a premier pass-rusher without needing to move up the board.
Scenario 5: The Seattle Seahawks have the No. 1 pick
In this scenario, the Seattle Seahawks land the No. 1 overall pick for the first time in franchise history and use it to secure their quarterback of the future, Cam Ward. The Bears follow by selecting the top edge defender in the class, while the Jets add competition for Justin Fields by drafting Shedeur Sanders.
The Raiders grab blue-chip prospect Travis Hunter, slotting him in as a starting cornerback with a defined role on offense. Arizona addresses a major need on the interior defensive line with the best prospect at the position, Mason Graham.
Scenario 6: The Las Vegas Raiders have the No. 1 pick
The last time the Raiders held the No. 1 overall pick was in 2007, when they selected quarterback JaMarcus Russell. This time, they go back to the well and take another quarterback — Cam Ward — with hopes for a far better outcome. With Geno Smith already on the roster, Ward wouldn’t need to start immediately.
The Cardinals grab Abdul Carter to pair with Josh Sweat off the edge, while the Jaguars add dynamic playmaker Travis Hunter. The Bengals break a long-standing trend by selecting a first-round interior defensive lineman, and the Dolphins continue to invest in protecting Tua Tagovailoa by drafting Armand Membou.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado
Scenario 7: The New York Jets have the No. 1 pick
The Jets haven’t held the No. 1 overall pick since 1996, when they selected Keyshawn Johnson. In this scenario, they take the top quarterback in the draft, Cam Ward, to compete with Justin Fields for the starting job. The Giants also land a potential franchise quarterback in Shedeur Sanders. The Browns add another elite pass-rusher by pairing Abdul Carter with Myles Garrett.
With the top two quarterbacks off the board, the Titans pivot to Travis Hunter to boost their receiving corps and continue developing Will Levis. The Patriots focus on protecting Drake Maye with the selection of Armand Membou, while the Seahawks add Will Campbell, who could start his NFL career at guard.
Scenario 8: The Chicago Bears have the No. 1 pick
The Bears already have their franchise quarterback in Caleb Williams, so they use the No. 1 pick in this scenario to give him another playmaker — pairing a new wideout with Rome Odunze. The Saints land the draft’s top quarterback without needing to trade up. The 49ers jump at the chance to select a premier edge defender, creating a fearsome pass-rushing tandem of Abdul Carter and Nick Bosa. The Giants address their quarterback need without moving up the board, and the Cowboys bolster their receiving corps with a big-bodied outside target in Tetairoa McMillan.
Scenario 9: The New Orleans Saints have the No. 1 pick
Oddly enough, the New Orleans Saints have held the No. 1 overall pick just once in franchise history — in 1981, when they selected running back George Rogers. In this scenario, they kick off a new chapter by taking the top quarterback in the draft, Cam Ward.
The Seahawks opt to pass on a signal-caller at No. 2 and instead add Travis Hunter as an outside receiving threat. The Colts land a premier defensive lineman in Mason Graham, while the Jets select Shedeur Sanders, setting up a quarterback competition with Justin Fields.
Scenario 10: The Miami Dolphins have the No. 1 pick
The last time the Miami Dolphins held the No. 1 overall pick was in 2008, when they selected offensive tackle Jake Long. With elite wide receivers already in place in Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, Miami would deploy Travis Hunter primarily at cornerback while still giving him a package of plays on offense.
The Cardinals continue to bolster their edge defender group by selecting Abdul Carter, transforming a former weakness into a strength in just two months. The 49ers land their left tackle of the future in Armand Membou. A quarterback doesn’t come off the board until pick No. 4, when the Jets take Cam Ward. At No. 5, the Falcons grab Tetairoa McMillan, pairing him with Drake London to form a physically imposing wide receiver duo.
Scenario 11: The Carolina Panthers have the No. 1 pick
The Panthers select Travis Hunter to serve as a dynamic offensive weapon and accelerate Bryce Young’s development. The Colts focus on protecting Anthony Richardson, adding Will Campbell to anchor the offensive line.
The Patriots give Drake Maye a big, reliable target in wideout Tetairoa McMillan, while the Cowboys land versatile, playmaking tight end Tyler Warren to bolster their offensive arsenal.
Scenario 12: The Cincinnati Bengals have the No. 1 pick
If the Bengals manage to retain Trey Hendrickson, pairing him with Abdul Carter would give them a dangerous pass-rushing duo — a key advantage in the competitive AFC North. In this scenario, the 49ers do select a quarterback, landing Cam Ward to potentially avoid handing Brock Purdy a top-tier veteran contract. The Cowboys come away with the best overall player in the draft in Travis Hunter, while the Giants secure their quarterback of the future at pick No. 4.
- Dallas Cowboys: WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado
Scenario 13: The Atlanta Falcons have the No. 1 pick
The Atlanta Falcons last held the No. 1 pick in 2001, when they selected Michael Vick. With second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in place, they can use the top pick to address their biggest need — a game-changing edge defender.
The Panthers land Travis Hunter to give Bryce Young a dynamic offensive weapon, while the Cardinals bolster their defensive front with the addition of Mason Graham. The 49ers continue to prioritize athleticism at tackle, and the Titans still get their quarterback of the future in Cam Ward just a few spots later at No. 5.
Scenario 14: The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 pick
In a best-case scenario for Browns fans, Cleveland hits the reset button and selects its quarterback of the future, Cam Ward, with the No. 1 pick. The Panthers add much-needed talent to their receiving corps by grabbing Travis Hunter, while the Raiders land quarterback Shedeur Sanders at No. 3.
The Bengals benefit from the board falling their way, landing the top edge defender in the draft without needing to move up. At No. 5, the Colts make a bold move by selecting tight end Tyler Warren, giving Anthony Richardson a dynamic target over the middle.
Scenario 15: The Indianapolis Colts have the No. 1 pick
The Colts’ last No. 1 overall pick was Andrew Luck, but with a first-round investment already made in Anthony Richardson, they may not be eager to dip into the quarterback pool again. In this scenario, Indianapolis selects Abdul Carter at No. 1, betting on Richardson’s continued development into a franchise quarterback.
The Giants secure their signal-caller of the future in Cam Ward, while the Saints land Shedeur Sanders to bolster their own quarterback room. The Seahawks, after missing out on the top passers, come away with arguably the best player in the draft in Travis Hunter.
Scenario 16: The Arizona Cardinals have the No. 1 pick
After making a big free-agent splash with the addition of Josh Sweat to boost their pass rush, the Cardinals use the No. 1 pick on Travis Hunter to strengthen their cornerback group while also adding speed to their wide receiver corps.
The Cowboys follow by pairing Abdul Carter with Micah Parsons — a duo that could wreak havoc in the NFC. The Bears fortify their interior defensive line with the selection of Mason Graham, and the Seahawks manage to land the draft’s top quarterback at No. 4.
Scenario 17: The Jacksonville Jaguars have the No. 1 pick
The Jaguars are no strangers to holding the No. 1 overall pick. With Trevor Lawrence already in place and Brian Thomas Jr. showing promise, Jacksonville selects Travis Hunter to round out a dynamic young wide receiver corps for the next several years. The Raiders land Cam Ward at No. 3, while the Panthers give Bryce Young a big-bodied target in Tetairoa McMillan. The Titans still manage to secure their quarterback of the future at No. 5 with Shedeur Sanders.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado
