Ramalytics: This draft QB compares stylistically to Matthew Stafford

Kyle McCord could fill shoes as Matthew Stafford’s gunslinging understudy

You have to take the good with the bad when it comes to Matthew Stafford. When healthy he will often rank towards the top of the NFL in both big-time throws (BTT) and turnover-worthy plays (TWP), according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

In 2024—a relative down year for the veteran—Stafford finished 10th in BTT’s with 26 (4.2%) and second behind only Sam Darnold in TWP’s with 25 (3.7%).

Going back to 2023, Stafford ranked 3rd with 37 BTT’s (6.3%) and as far down as 25th on the turnover front with 12 TWP’s (1.9%). This is probably the best season Stafford has put on tape to date, and he played a key role in leading a young Los Angeles Rams roster to the playoffs.

Kyle McCord is a strong stylistic fit behind Stafford

It would be fitting if the Rams were to draft a quarterback that similarly led the NCAA this past season to be Stafford’s understudy. Kyle McCord was once a highly regarding recruit that seemingly held back a star-studded offense at Ohio State. McCord transferred to Syracuse ahead of the 2024 season, and that worked out ideally for both the player and his former team. McCord was probably better than his placement at Ohio State, Will Howard, and was able to reach a new level of production with his new team.

McCord finished first in big-time throws with 36 (5.7%) and second behind Joey Aguilar in turnover-worthy plays at 24 (3.5%).

For comparison, Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart are two of the top QB’s in this draft class. Ward had 31 BTT’s (6.3%) and 18 TWP’s (3.3%). Dart finished with 30 BTT’s (7.1%) and just 11 TWP’s (2.2%). Quinn Ewers ranked towards the top of the turnover-worthy play list. He had 21 TWP’s but on a ratable basis put the ball in harm’s way more often than McCord at 4.0%.

Another interesting data point—that requires some interpretation before determining whether it is a positive or negative—is the fact that McCord ranked as the fifth-fastest QB in terms of time to throw after applying a 50% snap threshold at 2.40 seconds. This helps explain his relatively low average depth of target (ADOT) at 8.8 yards which was good for 37th of 93 players that met the snap threshold. In comparison Ward had an ADOT of 9.8 yards and Dart was towards the top of the list at 11.9.

One explanation for the quick time to throw and relatively low ADOT is that McCord faced the fifth-highest pressures last season. Much is made of how bad the Colorado offense line was for Shedeur Sanders—he ranked first in pressures at 204 (36%). However, this should also be an indicator for McCord as well. He faced 171 pressures which calculates to 27% of his drop backs.

One key difference between Sanders and McCord is how often the pressures they face turn into sacks. This is a key negative on the scouting report for Sanders, as he gets sacked on 20.1% of pressures. For McCord this figure is 17.0%. On the surface that seems like a slight percentage difference; however, on 200 pressures that means Sanders would take six sacks more than McCord on an annual basis.

There’s a lot to like about Kyle McCord. The Rams have built out their roster in the early going of the offseason in order to make a luxury pick at quarterback. There just doesn’t seem to be a player worth betting on at 26th overall this year. If Los Angeles trades back or McCord is still available into the late third round, he’d be a strong stylistic fit and someone with long-term upside behind Matthew Stafford.