
Fantasy observations from recent player moves
Spring is here! As the calendar flips from March to April, all football eyes are on the NFL Draft, which kicks off on Thursday, April 24. For the most part, free agency and big trades are now in the rearview, other than the many trades of picks (and maybe some players) that will happen during the Draft. Get ready to hear more than you ever wanted about short arms, football smarts, non-stop motors, character guys, athletic freaks, coachable players, and the rest. What a time!
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Two weeks ago, I shared some takeaways from the flurry of moves over the first few days of the 2025 NFL free agency period. If you missed it, here it is. Today I’m going to jump back in with more takeaways from subsequent signings and trades. It’s funny: When I wrote that first free agency column it felt like an Aaron Rodgers signing was imminent, yet here we are two weeks later and the 41-year-old, four-time MVP is still “mulling it over”. Yeesh.
Let’s get to it. All rankings noted are for Half-point PPR.
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Fantasy Takeaways:
1. The Steelers have hot rods, but no driver. Pittsburgh made one of the biggest moves so far this offseason when they traded for (and extended) D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf has played six seasons but is still just 27, and pairing him with fourth-year man George Pickens gives the Steelers a dynamic 1-2 punch at wide receiver, plus tight end Pat Freiermuth is a solid chain-mover and red zone target in the passing game. But who’s getting them the ball? As of now it’s Mason Rudolph, who started 13 somewhat forgettable games for the Steelers over four seasons and then played last season in Tennessee before returning.
The annual game of quarterback musical chairs is almost over, and the Steelers are just about the only desirable seat remaining. The aforementioned Rodgers is just about the only ass left to take that seat. Will they pair up, or will A-Rod retire? Tune in to Pat McAfee’s show to find out. Personally, I don’t care and I’m tired of the drama. The bottom line is that it’s going to be hard to invest too much fantasy draft capital in the Steelers’ pass catchers if Rudolph is the QB1 in the Steel City.
2. The Pats get their WR1. Or do they? Getting better weapons for second-year QB Drake Maye was a huge priority this off-season and after unsuccessfully pursuing multiple receiving weapons, the Pats’ big catch is Stefon Diggs (3 years, $69M), who tore his ACL in Week 8 last season, is 31 years old, and has shown some real decline over the past two seasons. The Pats gave him a lot of money but only $26 million of it is guaranteed. Diggs (and Mack Hollins, who the team also added) should help Maye. New England has had the worst receiver room in the league for several seasons after busting on multiple draft picks at the position, and they haven’t had a pass catcher top 900 yards since 2019, which was Tom Brady’s last season in Foxboro.
I like Maye this season as a high-end QB2 for Superflex leagues, and he’s got the rushing upside to be a low-end QB1 if the new and returning receivers can step up. As for Diggs, I don’t see a return to big numbers this season, and I wouldn’t roll the dice on him unless it’s at a truly low price.
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3. The Giants add two arms. In a period of several days, the Giants signed veteran QBs Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson, both on short, relatively cheap deals that suggest nothing more than a bridge to the future. While both players are in decline and on their third team in three years, it’s still a big upgrade at the position. I suspect that the dual signings mean that Big Blue won’t take a quarterback with the third overall pick in the draft, but they’re likely to add a QB at some point in the proceedings. What does this mean for fantasy? Well, Russ should start, and that would put him somewhere in the QB2 conversation. Jameis has more upside for fantasy (and downside, if your league heavily penalizes interceptions).
Either way, it’s good news for Malik Nabers and the rest of the offensive skill position players, considering that the 2024 Giants had one of the worst quarterback rooms of the 2020s (so far). Nabers managed 109-1,204-7 in 15 games as a rookie, catching passes from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito. His 170 targets were second only to triple crown winner Ja’Marr Chase (176), who played in all 17 games. It’s kind of amazing when you think about it. Better quarterback play will certainly help him, as will the fact that the Giants should again be chasing points in plenty of games.
The rest of the wide receiver corps is mostly the same (pending the draft) and nothing to get too excited about. Wan’Dale Robinson could be flex-worthy in full PPR if he can see the kind of volume he saw last season. If Jameis sees extended run, pay attention to your waiver wire for guys like Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt. Jameis turned Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy into fantasy studs at different times last season.
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4. Tampa and Cincinnati Stay Strong. Two of the biggest names that could have switched teams, but didn’t, were Tee Higgins and Chris Godwin, who both ended up signing extensions with the only team they’ve played for. That’s good news for Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and each of these excellent offenses. Godwin and Higgins are on the short list of the best “second WRs” in the NFL, and are great complements to the skillsets of Mike Evans and Ja’Marr Chase, respectively.
Godwin is coming off the second major injury of his career at age 29, but he was the overall WR2 (behind only Chase) before his injury in Week 7. Higgins was tied with Puka Nacua as the WR3 from Weeks 11-17 last season. These two can both produce. With the Bengals having so much money tied up in Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, I’d expect their defense to continue to be sub-par, which is great for fantasy.
The main casualty of these two signings is Jalen McMillan, who slowly upped his game in Godwin’s absence and was a Top-15 WR during the fantasy playoffs. He’s worth a dart throw later in drafts but if Godwin and Evans stay healthy, it’s hard to see him getting enough volume to be anything more than bench depth.
5. Deebo to Washington, Engram to Denver. I’m not sure what to expect for either of these players in their new homes. Of the two, I’ll be more likely to bet on Engram (who will turn 31 in September), than Samuel, who is 29. He’ll be cheaper in drafts and I like his fit in a Sean Payton offense with Bo Nix more than Deebo as the #2 in Washington’s offense.
Both players have been highly productive at times in the past, but Deebo has been on more of a decline as he’s aged, and it feels like all the hard hits he’s taken as a receiver and runner have taken a toll. Still, pairing him with Jayden Daniels is intriguing. I just think the price for the Deebo name will be a little too high in fantasy drafts.
That’s a wrap! Oh wait, this just in: Aaron Rodgers is still talking to the Vikings. Make it stop.
I’ll be back later this month with some fantasy content around the Draft, so stay tuned. Tennessee, you’re on the clock.