/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73989733/1425312831.0.jpg?w=1920&resize=1920,1267&ssl=1 "Vikings Links: Free Agency Day 19 Open Thread")
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Until the Vikings sign a backup veteran QB, the speculation about Aaron Rodgers will continue. Perhaps sadly. I am loving it to be honest. It does not really matter to me but it is entertaining.
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Minnesota Vikings News and Links
Finally, there’s some subtext about what transpired between free-agent quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Minnesota Vikings. And it lends an outline to what’s unfolding right now — from Rodgers remaining in a holding pattern to the Pittsburgh Steelers staying patient in their pursuit of his services.
Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah met with the media Wednesday, offering the most expansive public view to date about what has transpired between the team and Rodgers over the past few weeks. It was a session that was hopeful in the best-laid plans for 2024 first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy, noncommittal about definitively eliminating Rodgers from the future, and also clear when you analyze what’s going on between the lines. Which is something like this: As much as the Vikings are intrigued about adding Rodgers’ talent and experience to the fold, they won’t do it to the detriment of their plan for McCarthy being the team’s 2025 starter. And unless something changes that equation — like a McCarthy injury or some kind of catastrophic struggles in the coming months — the Vikings and Rodgers will be heading in different directions.
In one sense, it feels like a hedge by the Vikings. Those who want some definitive clarity expect a declaration along the lines of “Aaron Rodgers won’t be playing for Minnesota in 2025.” But in another sense, this is Adofo-Mensah doing two things: First, being respectful to Rodgers without saying the Vikings aren’t prepared to offer him a starting job; and second, banking some wiggle room to turn toward Rodgers if any number of worst-case scenarios unfold in the coming months.
Among those scenarios: Perhaps McCarthy suffers a setback physically in the offseason program as he returns from two knee surgeries. Or maybe he struggles unexpectedly in the coming months, forcing the Vikings to contemplate embracing an extended timeline before elevating him as the team’s starter. Neither is expected, of course. But the NFL is a landscape where failing to plan for every scenario can turn into an unexpected plan for your own demise. Adofo-Mensah is trying to avoid that while also carefully weighing how to fill out the remainder of Minnesota’s quarterback room.
There’s at least some level of transparency, too. And that’s this: The Vikings want McCarthy to be their starter in 2025. But they’re not giving him the job by default after Sam Darnold’s departure to the Seattle Seahawks and Daniel Jones signing with the Indianapolis Colts.
What that means for Rodgers is that he’s obliged to sit, wait and watch from afar. At least as long as Minnesota hasn’t signed another veteran quarterback into the backup spot behind McCarthy — which it eventually intends to do once that free agency addition doesn’t impact the team’s future compensatory pick equation. That deadline traditionally comes in May. Maybe that player will be Rodgers, once he doesn’t count against a future comp pick for the franchise. Maybe it will be one of several veterans who are still on the market and can provide the ability to support McCarthy and start some games in a pinch.
What is clear at this moment is that any signing is not meant to disrupt the Vikings’ plan to make McCarthy their 2025 starter. For Rodgers, it means the door to landing in Minnesota isn’t closed. But ajar or not, there isn’t currently a clear path to a starting spot with the Vikings.
Is Aaron Rodgers Worth The Trouble For Any NFL Team Anymore?
Last season for the Jets, one year off the torn Achilles tendon that cost him all but four plays in 2023, Rodgers completed 368 of 584 passes (63.0%) for 3,897 yards (6.7 yards per attempt) for 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a passer rating of 90.5. Among full seasons in his NFL career, the completion rate is the fourth-lowest of his career, the yards per attempt is tied for the lowest of his career (2015), and the passer rating is the lowest.
Rodgers did all this with a sub-par offensive line, but he still availed himself fairly well when under pressure — 59 completions in 130 attempts for 811 yards, eight touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.4. When blitzed, Rodgers completed 113 of 182 passes for 1,004 yards, 10 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 88.3. It’s interesting that Rodgers threw eight of his 11 interceptions last season when he wasn’t blitzed, and all 11 with a clean pocket. If you imagine that the modern Rodgers can get himself into trouble when he has too much time to think, you’re on to something there.
Rodgers was just fine as a deep passer last season — he completed 25 of 63 passes of 20 or more air yards for 740 yards, nine touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.8. Interestingly, it was on passes of 10-19 air yards where Rodgers got into by far the most trouble. On those throws, Rodgers completed 46 of 107 passes for 815 yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 63.4. In 2022, Rodgers’ previous full season, he was at his best on throws of 10-19 air yards. But it was short stuff, deep stuff, or bust in 2024.
The Jets used pre-snap motion 44% of the time, one of the league’s lowest rates. Their percentage of condensed formations — 26% — was also one of the league’s lowest.
Last season, Rodgers took the second-most dropbacks (370) without pre-snap motion behind only Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos. (Sean Payton? Also not a huge fan of pre-snap motion, apparently).
And in those 370 static dropbacks, Rodgers completed 193 of 335 passes for 2,091 yards, 996 yards after the catch, 13 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.3 — 31st in the NFL.
With pre-snap motion? Rodgers completed 175 of 249 passes on 270 dropbacks for 1,806 yards, 714 air yards, 15 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 107.3 — eighth-best in the NFL.
Perhaps Rodgers’ next head coach will present him with those numbers.
The Minnesota Vikings are leaving the door open for continued talks, but even they appear content proceeding with other options as well. Is it possible Rodgers will simply step away from the game entirely?
Everything is on the table, it seems. Which is why we decided to use our imagination and walk through potential negotiations. How might Rodgers’ behind-the-scenes discussions be unfolding as we speak? What kind of offers could he be getting, and what does he truly value in his next destination, whether it’s on the field or off it?
Minnesota Vikings
The offer: 1 year, $25 million*
*Note: This offer is contingent on an early training camp assessment of J.J. McCarthy.
The pitch: This may not be your best financial offer, but you’re not going to find a better place to play what could be your last NFL season. We’ve got world-class facilities in a division where you’ll get at least two games to stick it to the Green Bay Packers. We’ve got the reigning Coach of the Year in Kevin O’Connell. We’ve got a reinforced offensive line and some of the best playmaking wideouts in the game in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. We’ll push all the chips on you and the 2025 season if you’re willing to pass the torch to J.J. McCarthy once the show is over. The one thing we ask is that you be patient and reject any other offers until summer, when we can properly assess McCarthy’s readiness coming off knee surgery. We trust you’ll understand why we must first prioritize our homegrown investment, but we hope that, should the door swing open, you’ll choose to rock the purple.
Aaron Rodgers’ response …
I greatly appreciate your time and effort generating these offers. As you know, I don’t rush decisions like this, but now that I have all of the information at my fingertips, I’m ready to make a decision.
… on Vikings
Quite honestly, I’m all in on the Vikings. They were 14-3 last year and have great players at the skill positions, including my old buddy, Aaron Jones. I love the moves they’ve made this offseason and I like the idea of playing for an ex-NFL quarterback (Kevin O’Connell) who got a lot out of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold during his time with them. Plus, they play indoors and in a division I know well.
All that being said, I’m not going to sit and wait for them to determine whether J.J. is ready to go after looking at him during training camp. That’s simply not fair to him whatsoever. I went through something similar with the Packers in 2008 after Brett Favre tried to come back, and I don’t want to put J.J. or anyone else in a similar spot. If the Vikings want me, I’m ready, but if they’d rather begin the J.J. McCarthy era, that’s fine, too.
… on tentative retirement
So what’s left? Ah, the non-decision of postponing talks and waiting to see if an opportunity presents itself. It’s not ideal, but at this point, I think it’s the best option of the three. I can continue to process information, work on my mental and physical well being and enjoy other aspects of life instead of going through yet another training camp. I can also stay in the limelight during my weekly “Pat McAfee Show” hits.
Vikings’ 2025 over/under win total revealed at major sportsbook
The Vikings’ 2025 win total has now been revealed at ESPN BET. It’s higher, but not by a ton, with the over/under sitting at 8.5 wins.
The case for over 8.5 wins
Obviously, the risk here is that J.J. McCarthy is now expected to be the starting QB, and he hasn’t played a real game in the NFL yet. But if O’Connell can get the kind of production he’s gotten out of Kirk Cousins and Darnold (and Dobbs and Mullens at times), why should we expect anything less from the guy he felt confident in selecting with the tenth overall pick last year? By all accounts, McCarthy was thoroughly impressing the Vikings’ staff before his injury last August.
This is a stacked roster led by two great coaches in O’Connell and Flores. If McCarthy is even a middle-of-the-pack quarterback right away, nine wins is very attainable.
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The case for under 8.5 wins
This one starts with McCarthy, of course. He was the fifth QB picked in last year’s draft, and because of his injury, he won’t have thrown a pass in a competitive game in almost two years by the time Week 1 rolls around. His passing volume at Michigan was also much lower than the other quarterbacks in his draft class, so there’s a good deal of uncertainty there.
The Vikings’ schedule is also tougher this year. They’ve got the Eagles, Ravens, Commanders, and Bengals at home, and their road slate includes the Steelers, Cowboys, Chargers, and Seahawks. That’s not to mention their six games against the Lions, the Packers, and the potentially much-improved Bears.
Minnesota was also quite healthy last season. McCarthy and Mekhi Blackmon were out for the entire year, and a couple players (Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw, Ivan Pace Jr.) missed chunks of time, but almost all of the Vikings’ key contributors were out there basically every week. Their free agent haul this offseason includes four players (Fries, Kelly, Allen, Hargrave) who missed a combined 42 of 68 games last season. There’s some risk on that front.
Vikings S Harrison Smith’s contract details reveal hilarious clause which sees into his future
After nearly two weeks, we finally got details of Smith’s contract thanks to The Star Tribune’s Ben Goessling and Over The Cap. The basics are pretty simple.
$9.901 million salary cap hit
$2 million base salary
$8 million signing bonus
$250k in per game roster bonuses
$25 million base salary in 2027 is fully guaranteed if Smith is on the roster on the third day of the 2026 league year
The initial reporting of the deal had the value worth up to $14 million. The incentives in the contract that Goessling laid out are relatively standard.
Escalating playing time bonus: $250k for playing 65% of the snaps, $500k for playing 70%, and $750k for 75%
If Smith plays 75% of snaps, Smith is eligible for a postseason performance escalator: $250k for winning NFC title, $500k if Vikings win Super Bowl, $1 million if they win the Super Bowl and Smith wins MVP while playing 75% of snaps
$500k for 3 or more sacks
$1 million for first-team All-Pro, $500k for second-team
The most interesting incentive of all of them is what everyone thinks happens to Smith after his career: Hitman to the Hall of Fame. If he gets four interceptions, Smith will receive $500k. That’s a phenomenal name for an incentive and his likely home within the next decade.
Vikings ‘30 visit’ tracker: Which NFL draft prospects are Minnesota hosting?
Derrick Harmon, DL, Oregon
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Arizona
Brashard Smith, RB, SMU
Jacob Bayer, C, Arkansas State
Vikings predicted to make key move by landing Texas star
Keeping that in mind, a new prediction has the Vikings bringing in a key piece by drafting a Texas Longhorns’ star. That Texas star is none other than offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.
CBS Sports analyst Tom Fornelli has projected Banks to end up with Minnesota at No. 24 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
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“I know people who have Kelvin Banks Jr. as their top OT in the class, and I know some who wouldn’t take him in the first round. I’m much closer to the former camp than the latter, and while Minnesota’s done some work to address the interior of their OL, I don’t think upgrading at tackle too would be a mistake.”
Standing in at 6-foot-5 and 315 pounds, Banks would be a big addition for the Vikings. He would help keep McCarthy upright and healthy and could be a long-term piece of his protection.
Banks falling all the way to Minnesota would be a huge win for the Vikings. Being able to land a talent like him on the offensive line so late would help the offense in a big way.
Yore Mock
Trade Recap
Minnesota Receives:
2025: Round 1, Pick 27
2025: Round 4, Pick 129
2025: Round 6, Pick 212
Baltimore Receives:
2025: Round 1, Pick 24
…
Minnesota Receives:
2025: Round 2, Pick 36
2025: Round 3, Pick 88
Jacksonville Receives:
2025: Round 1, Pick 27
…
36. Donovan Jackson IOL Ohio State 6’3.5” 315
88. Cameron Skattebo RB Arizona State 5’9.4” 219
97. Dorian Strong CB Virginia Tech 6’1.0” 185
129. Ty Robinson DL Nebraska 6’5.1 288
139. Billy Bowman S Oklahoma 5’9.7” 192
187. Fadil Diggs EDGE Syracuse 6’4.3” 257
212. Thomas Fidone II TE Nebraska 6’5.0” 243
UDFA
Taylor Elgersma QB Wilfrid Laurier
Monaray Baldwin WR Baylor
Caleb Etienne OT BYU
Jacob Bayer IOL Arkansas State
Dylan Brown DT Jacksonville State
Danny Striggow EDGE Minnesota
Eugene Asante LB Auburn
Jaheim Thomas LB Wisconsin
Korie Black DB Oklahoma State
Car’lin Vigers CB Louisiana-Monroe
Dylan Brown SS Wisconsin River Falls
Kai Kroeger P South Carolina
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