Can Davante Adams be the Rams’ missing piece in 2025?

Davante Adams is still a very good wide receiver. He’s also not the same player he was three years ago.

The Los Angeles Rams made the big move right before free agency to sign wide receiver Davante Adams following his release from the New York Jets. Coming into the offseason, the Rams needed a wide receiver that could win on the boundary at the “X” and that’s exactly what Adams provides.

With that being said, the signing of Adams isn’t as risk free as some would like it to be. Adams will be 32 heading into 2025, but it will technically be his age 33 season as his birthday is in December. Since 2010, 10 wide receivers have eclipsed 1000 yards at age 32/33.

One of the bigger needs coming into the offseason for the Rams was the wide receiver position, especially finding that player on the boundary. Adams fills that need, but also essentially removes them from drafting a wide receiver at 26. The hope here for the Rams is that Adams isn’t Allen Robinson 2.0.

When it comes to Adams, multiple things can be true at the same time. The first is that he is not the player that he once was. Recognizing that fact, it can also be true that Adams can still help a team if the fit is right. The fit may just be right with the Rams. Matt Harmon who charts wide receivers for Reception Perception broke down Adams’ 2024 season and gave his thoughts on him signing with the Rams. Said Harmon,

“I think we should at least linger for one second on the fact that the Rams were the team that also ignored some of the signs of decline in Allen Robinson’s profile when last they signed a big-name veteran free agent wideout. However, Adams’ skill set is exactly what this offense needed. His ability to play inside and out affords LA the opportunity to continue moving Puka Nacua around. He also brings the man coverage skills Cooper Kupp doesn’t at this stage of his career. He’s certainly the best X-receiver this team has employed since Odell Beckham’s brief run with the team in the Super Bowl season. If Adams is going to have one or two more big years with a team, this is a spot where it can happen.”

Adams’ fit with the Rams makes a lot of sense. There’s a reason why he was my number six free agent fit. Despite a down year, Adams ranked 10th in targets per route and was 13th in yards after the catch per reception. Last season Adams had 11 red-zone receptions for six touchdowns. He ranked seventh in the NFL in end zone targets. In 2023, he had 16 receptions in the red zone for six touchdowns on nine end zone targets. Adams should be the red zone specialist Rams have been missing at the wide receiver position. He fits exactly what they needed in the wide receiver position this offseason.

If they plan to use him similarly to Demarcus Robinson, there is no doubt that Adams is a clear upgrade. There also shouldn’t be any concerns over a culture fit either. Adams played with Matt LaFleur in Green Bay and understands the offense. While there have been moments of drama with Adams over the last two years, his situation also significantly changed. The former Packers wide receiver left for the Raiders to play with his college teammate and good friend Derek Carr. However, following 2022 the Raiders released Carr which left Adams with a slew of bad quarterbacks.

Matt Harmon | Reception Perception

It’s easy to simply point at the quarterback situation as a reason for Adams’ slight dip in production. Again, multiple things can be true at the same time. There’s no doubt that playing with Jimmy Garoppolo, Gardner Minshew, and Aaron Rodgers coming off of a torn Achilles had an effect on his production. That can be true while also recognizing that at 32 years old, Adams may not be the same player that he was when he left the Green Bay Packers.

On Adams’ recent usage, Harmon said,

“Adams had been almost exclusively an X-receiver during his time with the Las Vegas Raiders. In 2023, he took a whopping 87.5% of his sampled snaps outside and 85.8% on the line of scrimmage…However, when he arrived in New York, the presence of Garrett Wilson and his long-standing connection with Aaron Rodgers freed him up to play more positions. Overall, Adams took just 52.1% of his snaps on the line of scrimmage, and his slot rate was up to 42.4%…That being said, Adams can still get open outside. His 74.6% success rate vs. man coverage, while well south of his peak seasons, is still a really strong result and within the same neighborhood of his 2023 number.”

The major point here is that while Adams is still very good, it shouldn’t be expected that the Rams are getting peak Davante Adams. This is still a very good wide receiver even if he isn’t necessarily in his prime. Adams at 75 percent of what he was is still a top-25 wide receiver in the NFL. He may not be as dominant as he was, but he still has the ability to get open. Said Harmon,

“Now, the most concerning result for Adams is the 77% success rate vs. zone coverage. That’s a pretty significant dropoff from his 84.4% success rate vs. zone from the previous season. We’ve seen big dips in success rate vs. zone being the first warning sign, and one I’ve been too quick to ignore, toward a decline for perimeter receivers in recent RP history (Allen Robinson, for example). I think that the overall drop in success rate vs. zone is attributed to the body naturally slowing down and losing burst. He doesn’t explode out of breaks like he used to and his deep route success rates are still good but down from previous years.”

It feels odd for the Rams to move on from one wide receiver entering the age of 30 in Cooper Kupp only to sign a wide receiver past 30 in Davante Adams. A big question will be whether the Rams believe Adams is an exception and outside what has become the norm for older wide receivers. The Rams experienced this extreme drop-off with Allen Robinson and it is a surprise that they’ve opted for an older wide receiver just three years later.

Matt Harmon | Reception Perception

DeAndre Hopkins was once a dominant wide receiver in the NFL. He’s dealt with some bad quarterback play in recent years, but just recorded his lowest yards per reception in his career at age 32. Julio Jones is a Hall of Fame player and his drop-off came at age 31. It’s very possible that Adams is an exception as he seems to be a perfect fit for the Rams offense. At the same time, the history is somewhat concerning. Harmon noted,

“As I often say, predicting the pace of receiver decline is where I’m least confident in using Reception Perception. The nature of the fall can be so different for each player. Some guys drop quickly and never recover, while others steadily decline. If I had to take an educated guess based on his success rates and ability to play multiple positions, I’d bet Adams falls in the latter category and still has a year or two of great football left. While his 2024 RP data shows he’s understandably in decline from his Hall of Fame-level peak, there are more than enough indicators here to show he can be a strong starting outside receiver for the 2025 season whom you’re comfortable giving a healthy share of your passing offense.”

The signing of Davante Adams is the type of all-in move that the Rams needed to make. After coming up just shy of hosting the NFC Championship game, they needed to find players that could help them get over the hump. By moving on from Kupp, the Rams also needed another player that they could rely on in ‘must have it’ situations. Adams fits that bill.

It is also worth noting that in seven career games against the San Francisco 49ers, Adams has had 130+ yards in five of them. His career average against the 49ers is 9.1 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown. That’s an insane seven game average.

This is not to say that Adams is going to be Allen Robinson 2.0. Unlike Robinson, Adams was a priority for the Rams this offseason. With Robinson, he was a player that the team diverted to after Von Miller opted to leave for the Buffalo Bills. Having that plan for Adams’ usage is important if he’s going to be successful. The Rams also don’t necessarily have the large financial commitment with Adams. It’s essentially a one-year, $20 million deal. It’s easy to move on after 2025 and the Rams can save $18 million by cutting him after the season.

At the same time, it’s also not necessarily a signing that’s guaranteed to work and the Rams aren’t getting the Davante Adams from three years ago. That doesn’t mean that Adams can’t or won’t be successful. However, the level of success that Adams has will play a big role in whether or not the Rams are serious contenders in the NFC.