Should the Colts re-sign Dayo Odeyingbo?

Colts defensive lineman Dayo Odeyingbo is a pending free agent; should the Colts re-sign the young versatile player?

Dayo Odeyingbo has emerged as one of the better young players on the Colts defense over the past couple of seasons. Compiling 11 sacks, 16 tackles for losses and a few forced fumbles, he has exceeded expectations in his role as a rotational defensive lineman. He has experience inside and on the edge and has found success from both areas. Dayo will be 26 years old in September and is up for a new contract this offseason. He was drafted in the 2nd round in 2021 by the Colts and the question is: does he deserve a 2nd contract with the team? The answer is obviously yes, but can the Colts afford to pay his projected asking price and if they can, should they?

Projected Contract

According to Tom Pelissero’s recent article highlighting under-the-radar free agents, he says that “it wouldn’t be a shock to see Odeyingbo land a deal in the range of $16 million to $20 million per year.” It’s a decent starting point to work with.

It’s more accurate to consider Dayo an edge rusher since 78% of his snaps are on the outside. From there, we can use the following players to compare:

• Arik Armstead
• Carl Granderson
• Osa Odighizuwa
• Dre’Mont Jones

Please note that Dayo Odeyingbo is a unique player and doesn’t have an exact comparison, so finding players with some similar traits is tricky.

If we look at all 4 contracts, we see that:

• Arik Armstead signed for 3 years, 43.5M with 28M guaranteed in 2024
• Carl Granderson signed for 4 years, 52M with 22.1M guaranteed in 2023
• Osa Odighizuwa signed for 4 years, 80M with 39M guaranteed in 2025
• Dre’Mont Jones signed for 3 years, 51M with 23M guaranteed in 2023

The average of those 4 contracts, adjusted for inflation, would be:

4 years, $72M with $36M guaranteed

Based on the average and the reports we’re seeing/hearing, we can expect Dayo to sign for around the money listed above.

Is it Worth it?

There’s two parts to it: Dayo is a young upstart player who is about to enter his athletic prime on a team that could use the help on the edge. The other part to it is that Dayo’s production up to this point has not made him an $18M-a-year player.

If they’re optimistic about his potential and believe the Colts badly need the help on the edge, then the Colts should keep him.

If they’re looking it at with regards to his production and his numbers, he is simply not worth $15M+ a year and more in the $8M-$12M a year range.

A contract like the one listed above would put him in the upper echelon of complimentary edge rushers and make him one of the 15 highest paid defensive ends in the NFL. I don’t think anyone can argue that Dayo is one of the 15-20 best in the league at the moment.

Personally, I like to pay for something based on what has been shown, even if it’s flashes. Dayo is very athletic and is clearly on the rise, but to pay a relative unknown that much money that makes him one of the highest paid players on the team seems too much. The Colts still have serious issues in the secondary, they might have an opening to fill at linebacker and there might be holes looming with the offensive line, so money might be tight.

Chris Ballard in his make-or-break year might not care about the long-term ramifications and sign him to a contract like the one above, but it’s risky. Ballard is in a position now where he’ll have to take risks so he could bite the bullet and not necessarily see the negative fallout of the contract (if he underperforms).

It’s also worth noting that the defensive end market is relatively strong with names like Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Trey Hendrickson, Dee Lawrence and Josh Sweat. The Colts could find someone out there for cheaper with better short-term value than Odeyingbo.

For me, making Dayo a top 5 paid player on the team seems too much and not a contract the team should look to take on, especially with some new defensive end names on the free agency and trade market such as the names listed above.