Fantasy Football ‘25: The top tiers of players

Welcome back, readers! The NFL offseason is rolling along and has officially entered the fun stage for us fans. Here’s where we are: The scouting Combine wrapped up on Sunday, the first big trade came down last week (Deebo to the Commanders!), the franchise tag window closed on Tuesday (Tee Higgins gets the tag for the second year in a row, while Sam Darnold is a free agent), and free agency opens next week (March 12). The main event – the 2025 NFL Draft – is heading our way in late April. So buckle up, friends. Yeah, MLB has its offseason “hot stove,” but by comparison the NFL has a nuclear reactor. Even with the start of its season a full six months away, the NFL has a unique ability to dominate headlines and hold our attention. I’m here for it.

Two weeks ago, I dropped my way-too-early first round fantasy football rankings for 2025, and today I’ve got my way-too-early top tiers at each of the main positions. I’ve written a lot in the past about why it’s so important to use tiers when you do your rankings, so I won’t waste time with it here. And while a lot can and will change between now and the start of the season, I’m confident that barring injuries, the top tiers I’m providing today won’t change all that much between now and the end of August.

The challenge in putting this together, in addition to the fact that it’s only March, is to avoid overreacting to the 2024 season. In listing the top tier of players at each position for the 2025 season, the goal is to identify the players most likely to put up elite production, and not just the players who put up the most points in 2024 (although in many cases, it’s the same players).

As a frame of reference, at each position I’ll also share my final top tiers from the 2024 preseason. It’s always interesting to see how this changes from year to year, and to see how players performed vs. expectations. That’s right, I had Dalton Kincaid in my top tier at tight end last season. Please accept my apology.

Let’s get to it. These are my top tiers for 2025 season-long, redraft fantasy football, using these settings: 1 QB starting, Half-PPR scoring, and 4-points per passing TD. Rankings within the tier aren’t overly important, and especially at this early stage. I did this exercise blind, without looking at anyone else’s rankings or tiers.

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Quarterback

2025 Top Tier: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts
2024 Top Tier: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes

Commentary:

Will Patrick Mahomes ever put up monster numbers again? Maybe, but after he finished as the QB1 in 2022, fantasy managers have been burned two years in a row, and name recognition will likely keep Mahomes overpriced in 2025. As long as KC has a top defense, Mahomes belongs outside the top tier for fantasy.

In my rankings column, I explained why the four elite dual-threat quarterbacks listed above are in a tier of their own, and why I’m fine taking any of them within the Top-25 or so picks. Last season, Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield both finished in the Top-5 at the quarterback position in both total points and points per game. Great? Yes, great, and they’re solid QB1s for 2025. But I’m not willing to put a “pocket passer” in my top quarterback tier, because it’s so much harder for them to put up elite production on a consistent, year-over-year basis in the way that the top running quarterbacks can.

Recent history bears this out. Allen, Hurts, and Jackson have averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons, and they’re the only quarterbacks for whom that’s the case. And 20 points is just the floor; 24-25 points per game is a number all three have hit more than once across those three seasons. I’m a believer that they’ll all hit that floor again this season, with ease, as will Daniels. This is the simplest position for today’s exercise.

Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

Running Back

2025 Top Tier: Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry
2024 Top Tier: Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall

Commentary:

Newsflash: Running backs made a major comeback in 2024. And it was about time – we missed you, running backs! A huge story last offseason was all the movement of some big-name veteran RBs, and as a group, those backs were fantastic. Barkley and Henry combined for almost 4.000 rushing yards for their new teams. Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Tony Pollard, and Aaron Jones also did very well in their new digs, as did J.K. Dobbins. A bunch of younger backs also stepped up. Gibbs, Robinson, Devon Achane, James Cook, Kyren Williams, and Chase Brown all took big steps forward in their second or third seasons, while Bucs’ fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving emerged as a fantasy darling.

Underlying this outstanding production from the position was a remarkable run of good health outside of McCaffrey, who as the No. 1 overall player in the 2024 preseason pretty much single-handedly destroyed one team in every single fantasy league in the world. Breece Hall stayed healthy but was one of just a few major disappointments at a position that thrived in 2024.

McCaffrey is going to give fantasy analysts and players fits this offseason. After his incredible performance in 2023, he barely played in 2024 and his ability to stay on the field is a huge question mark. I debated including him in my Tier 1 (as well as Achane, Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, and Cook), and any of them could end up in my Tier 1 before all is said and done. But for now, I think the players I’ve listed deserve to be in a separate tier at the top as they’re the best and safest combinations of high floor and ceiling. The second tier at the position is looking very strong and decently deep, and if you miss out on the Top-4 but get one of the second group as your RB1, I think you’ll be happy with that.

Photo by Bruce Yeung/Getty Images

Wide Receiver

2025 Top Tier: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb
2024 Top Tier: CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase

Commentary:

This was the hardest position group for me. A case could be made that Chase should sit alone in his own tier at the top, after he won the triple crown in 2024. I’ve got him as my No. 1 wide receiver (and No. 2 player overall after Barkley), but I think the Bengals won’t be as atrocious on defense in 2025 and because of that, Chase is unlikely to repeat his numbers. The Bengals lost four games where they scored 30 or more points.

Once again, Justin Jefferson’s quarterback situation is dicey (with Sam Darnold not getting tagged, it could be a combo platter of Daniel Jones and J.J. McCarthy…hmm). Jefferson didn’t disappoint in 2024 with Darnold under center and is as QB-proof as they come, but still, I don’t feel great using a Top-5 pick on him. The list of first-year QBs who have supported a Top-3 WR is very short. CeeDee Lamb lost his quarterback to injury in 2024 but he should return to being the focal point of the Dallas offense and one of the most targeted receivers in the league. I don’t feel that way about Tyreek Hill, who will be 31 when the season starts and might be slowing down. I’ll take him once it’s a clear discount but probably not before.

Strong cases can be made for including each of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, and Puka Nacua in Tier 1, but for various reasons I have them separated from the Top-3. They’re at the top of my next tier, which also includes Brian Thomas, Jr., A.J. Brown, and Malik Nabers. Nabers could climb that ladder a bit depending on the Giants’ quarterback situation when summer rolls around.

Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Tight End

2025 Top Tier: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle
2024 Top Tier: Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid

Commentary:

This is the position with the biggest changeover from 2024. As recently as two seasons ago, Kelce stood alone as the top tier at the position, but it’s pretty clear that his days of dominance are over. He’ll still have his moments, but at his age the consistency isn’t the same. Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews are important pieces of their respective offenses, but each suffers from the fact that his team has so many other good scoring options. McBride is my only repeat Top-tier pick at tight end, and all that stands between him and being the top scorer at the position is touchdowns. He finished as the TE3 in 2024 (Weeks 1-17) despite recording just one receiving TD, and he leads all tight ends in catches and yards across the last two seasons.

Kittle has been in and out of the Top-Tier at the position for close to a decade, and last season he benefitted from injuries to McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel. He finished as the overall TE1 in 2024, at 13.9 fantasy points per game which was almost two points clear of the field (Bowers was second). Even with everyone healthy, and even at age 31, he’s a favorite target of Brock Purdy and should produce TE1 numbers as long as he himself stays healthy, which hasn’t always been a given.

Brock Bowers is my No. 1 tight end for 2025 as of now, but much like Jefferson and Nabers, his QB situation is unsettled and bears watching. He put up monster numbers as a rookie last year with one of the NFL’s weakest quarterback rooms, so I’m not overly worried.

Fun fact: Jonnu Smith was the TE1 last season from Weeks 7-17. I can’t put him in my Tier 1 as this was far and away his best season (i.e., a career year), and I do expect Miami’s talented wide receiver duo to bounce back some in 2025.

That’s a wrap. I’ll be back soon with some free agency/fantasy takes, so keep it here.